Series Preview: Astros (16-18) v Cubs (20-14)

The Cubs have a favorable schedule for the month of May, and have taken care of business with a 10-3 record thus far. The Cubs have 9 more games this month against teams projected to have losing records (Astros, Pirates, Padres) with 2 games against the coming-back-down-to-earth St. Louis Cardinals and 4 games against the Dodgers, who will likely cruise to the NL west title, Manny or no Manny. As the Cubs just saw, playing many games against the San Diego Padres is likely to be good for your record. Aside from the finally-concluded Milton Bradley suspension saga, the big story from the last series was Bobby Scales, who had a big series. His hot start is especially good for him, as making a good first impression on Lou can go a long way for a bench player - see Kevin Hart’s good 2007 for a good example of this, or Michael Wuertz for an example of someone who found his way into Lou’s doghouse quite early and never found his way out. Scales’s projections on fangraphs (avg of .329 wOBA) are higher than both Miles’s (.310) and Freel’s (.315), and if he doesn’t completely flop for the next few weeks. I think he’s accrued enough goodwill with Lou to supplant Miles in the depth chart as the top backup in the IF and steal away his execrable pinch hits. Given that the Orioles are paying Freel’s salary, it wouldn’t be a big deal if they unloaded Freel when Ramirez eventually returns. Injuries For the Cubs, Lee obviously still isn’t 100%. I don’t really know what to make of this injury - apparently it’s been a problem dating back to (at least) the previous season, but it seems much worse this season. Because it’s more of a chronic pain, I’m not sure that putting him on the DL is going to make much of a difference when he returns - maybe just an incremental gain in how it is affecting him. On the Astros side, closer Jose Valverde has been out since April 28 due to a calf injury, which is expected to keep him out until June. Cub ‘Fan’ pariah LaTroy Hawkins is filling in for him at closer. Players to Watch Most of the Astros hitters have been hot recently, though those numbers are skewed by some wacky games at Coors. Al would tell you that the Cubs were involved in a lot of high scoring games there in the 1970s. Overall their offense has been pretty decent so far this year - it’s been their pitching that’s been terrible. Keep an eye on Oswalt - he’s had a terrible season (FIP of 5.5) at has admitted to feeling lost on the mound. Maybe he’s a WBC casualty? He was hit quite hard if I remember correctly. For the Cubs, Soto had a few hits and a long, wind-aided HR in the last series. Hopefully that will give him more confidence in his swing, but I’m not holding my breath. Pitching Matchups Friday Brian Moehler, RHP (3.66, 4.58) v Randy Wells, RHP (2.43, 4.23), 1:20 PM CT After some initial butterflies, Wells pitched well in his first major league start. He struck out 5 with 2 walks and did not allow a run, settling in after his first two innings. He seemed to impress Lou and will probably stick around after Z is back (hopefully meaning the end of the David Patton era). I actually wish that he had started yesterday’s game rather than today’s, since the Padres have a much lousier offense than the Astros. Moehler was roughed up by the Cubs in his first outing of the season and was knocked around by the Pirates in his next appearance as well. He pitched well in his next two starts (against the Nationals and Padres), but that’s not saying much. This game might not even happen, due to the rain moving through the area this afternoon. Even without Bradley, I think that the Cubs have a slight edge in this game. It will probably come down to the bullpens, and the Astros bullpen is a joke. Saturday Roy Oswalt, RHP (5.64, 3.54) v Sean Marshall, LHP (4.58, 4.6), 12:05 PM CT Oswalt has been having trouble this season, and has incharacteristically only posted three quality starts this season (vs the Cubs and Reds). His TTO numbers are way off from his career norms - his K/9 has dropped by ~1.5 and his BB/9 has jumped by ~.8, and his HR/9 has nearly doubled. Furthermore, he hasn’t struck out more than 6 batters in any of his starts this season. Marshall, looked pretty gassed in his last start but has been impressive otherwise this season. The extra day of rest may end up helping him. However, the Astros have pounded left-handed pitching so far this season, so this might be an ugly day for the Cubs. Sunday Felipe Paulino, RHP (5.33, 5.23) v Rich Harden, RHP (4.79, 3.10), 1:20 PM CT This is an easy pick for a win for the Cubs. Paulino can’t find the strike zone at all (5.11 BB/9). He’s a groundball guy who’s had an unlucky .395 BABIP, so those numbers are going to come back down to earth a bit, but the Cubs should feast all over his control problems. Harden had another great start against the Padres, taking care of business with no significant velocity issues. This is an easy pick for a Cubs win. Predicition The Cubs win this series 2-1, but it’s a lot closer than I first thought