The Phillies have been actively working the phones over the past several weeks trying to make a trade that would bolster their pitching rotation. The Phillies lack of serious starting pitching was made to look even weaker after the Milwaukee Brewers traded for Indians' ace CC Sabathia and the Chicago Cubs traded for Oakland star Rich Harden last week. The Phillies were one of a number of teams that were in negotiations with Cleveland to acquire Sabathia's services, but in the end they just didn't have enough to offer. Instead of being able to trade for Rich Harden, who when healthy is arguably the best pitcher in baseball, it looks like the Phillies will wind up acquiring Joe Blanton from the Athletics. Blanton is Oakland's number two starter and despite showing some serious talent in previous years, has really struggled this season, going 5-12 with a 4.96 ERA.
The Phillies have reportedly been negotiating with the Seattle Mariners over the past couple weeks in an attempt to acquire their disgruntled ace Erik Bedard, but it appears that they're not going to be able to pull off that deal, and Bedard is currently on the DL and wants out of Seattle. Even more importantly, Seattle wants Bedard out of Seattle. And all indications point to the Phillies not bringing him back to the East Coast.
Why are they having such a hard time bringing in a legitimate quality starting pitcher? Because the Phillies have a very weak farm system. As you have noticed, I'm sure, by reading Jay's On The Farm columns, the subject of his pieces are the same handful of players over and over again.
This is not to say that the Phils don't have any talent in the minors. There are several highly touted players in their farm system, most notably Carlos Carasco and Adrian Cardenas. Carasco is the Phils' most highly touted prospect. He has been rated as the number one pitching prospect in organization two years in a row by Baseball America. Cardenas is the most likely prospect to be traded as his primary position is second base, which is in all likelihood going to be occupied by Chase Utley for many years to come. Cardenas is ranked the number two prospect in the organization, and is batting .309 with 16 stolen bases.
Other prospects are SS Jason Donald, C Lou Marson, LHP Josh Outman, 2B Brad Harman, OF Greg Golson, and LHP Antonio Bastardo. Other than Carasco or Cardenas, no one really blows you away, although the upside potential is definitely there will all of them.
Nevertheless, the farm team is not teeming with trade bait. But the Big Show is.
Ryan Howard is prime trade bait. In Howard's short career he has been named the NL Rookie of the Year, NL MVP, Home Run Derby Champion, and he has led the league in home runs and RBIs over the past three years. He also broke the single season record for strikeouts last year and is on pace to shatter that record this year. Howard, in his second year, demanded that the Phillies pay him $1 million. The Phillies wanted to give him $900,000, which was the record for a second year player. The two sides went to arbitration and Howard was awarded a $1 million contract. The next year he demanded $10 million, the Phillies offered $7 million. The two sides went to arbitration again, and again Howard won. It appears that Howard is going to take the Phils to arbitration to each off season until his contract is up in 2011, at which point he is going to demand (and command) a ridiculous contract.
This is not the Phillies of old. This team is no longer afraid to shell out some money to bring or keep talent to Philly, but within reason. The Phillies are not going to be able to pay, or willing to pay, the kind of money that Howard is going to demand. And I do not entirely fault Howard for demanding the money he is, or will. How many players have the record that he does? If he continues to hit the way he did the last month before the all star break (.284, 11 HR, 30 RBI, .965 OPS), then he will right in the mix for his second MVP award. The man can hit, no doubt about it. When Howard doesn't strike out, he is hitting over .450.
That being said, that stat is part of the problem. Howard has also struck out 129 times this year. He struck out a total of 199 times last year. He has only walked 48 times. That means he strikes out almost three times as many times as he walks. You also have to take into consideration that Howard continues to be among the tops in the league in intentional walks, which decreases the amount of walks that he gets through patience and a good eye. Let's face it, Howard is a one dimensional player, perhaps the most one dimensional player in the majors. He either strikes out, or hits a home run. In the past month, Howard has one double and one triple. So out of 13 extra base hits, 11 of them are home runs. That is terrible.
Nevertheless, Howard is absolutely a key part to this team and its offense. You can't ignore the power numbers, which are the best in the game since he's been in the majors. That is why I think it is the perfect time to trade him.
Unless Howard has indicated otherwise to Phillies GM Pat Gillick, it does not appear he is really planning on staying here. He wanted to sign a long term deal after his rookie season and instead the Phils offered him a one year deal worth the $900,000, which at the time was the record for a second year player. This disappointed Howard (and for the record, I think the Phillies should have bit the bullet and signed him for at least close to whatever he was asking for) and now I think he is just going to price himself out of Philadelphia. Instead of going year to year through arbitration, the Phils should deal him to either the Yankees or Red Sox. Both teams have the money and the record of giving huge contracts to their players, and both are going to have a void in the next couple years that Howard is perfectly suited to fill.
Howard is a mediocre first baseman at best, but he isn't on your team for his defense. He is a player built for the American League and their stupid DH. Both the Yankees and Red Sox are going to be in need of a DH in the next couple years. The Yankees current DH platoon of Jason Giambi, Johnny Damon, and Hideki Matsui are about as banged up a bunch of highly paid veterans as you'll find anywhere in the majors. By 2011, at least two of these guys will be gone, whether through retirement or free agency. He would be the perfect replacement to fill the void that would be left by Giambi's bat.
An equally compelling team are the Red Sox. Current Boston DH David Ortiz (33 years old) is not getting any younger and has had a somewhat disappointing year. His power is down this year, and there has been some speculation that this could be related to the release of the Mitchell Report this past off season. Whether Ortiz's power is down due to steroids or because he is having an off year or because he is starting to decline, he is getting older and is not going to start getting significantly better. To the contrary, Ortiz is going to start declining over the next few years, if he hasn't already started. Howard is young enough to play first base for a number of years in Boston, or New York, while the current DH plays out the rest of his career.
Howard would bring the Phillies a serious number of prospects that they could use to a) bolster their farm system and help them build for the future or b) turn around and trade them for a serious starting pitcher that is on the same level as Sabathia or Harden.
They should trade for Matt Holliday, who would help fill the void left by trading Howard. They can give up some of those prospects in the farm system right now for Holliday. Then by trading Howard, they can use those prospects for a starter. Yes, that depletes the farm system for a number of years, but this team is young enough right now to contend for the World Series for years to come. They don't need the farm system to be bountiful right now with the exception of using those players as trade bait.
If Howard does actually want to stay here and will take a deal that won't make it impossible for them to sign and trade for other important pieces, then that's fine. Keep him here. I have no problems with Howard spending his entire career in Philadelphia. But I believe the Phillies are going to lose him eventually to free agency, so they should try and get the most for him that they can before he bleeds them dry and prices himself out of a trade. The time is now, they need to strike while the iron is hot. This is the best opportunity the Phillies have had to make it to the World Series in years and they need to take their shot now.
The Phillies have reportedly been negotiating with the Seattle Mariners over the past couple weeks in an attempt to acquire their disgruntled ace Erik Bedard, but it appears that they're not going to be able to pull off that deal, and Bedard is currently on the DL and wants out of Seattle. Even more importantly, Seattle wants Bedard out of Seattle. And all indications point to the Phillies not bringing him back to the East Coast.
Why are they having such a hard time bringing in a legitimate quality starting pitcher? Because the Phillies have a very weak farm system. As you have noticed, I'm sure, by reading Jay's On The Farm columns, the subject of his pieces are the same handful of players over and over again.
This is not to say that the Phils don't have any talent in the minors. There are several highly touted players in their farm system, most notably Carlos Carasco and Adrian Cardenas. Carasco is the Phils' most highly touted prospect. He has been rated as the number one pitching prospect in organization two years in a row by Baseball America. Cardenas is the most likely prospect to be traded as his primary position is second base, which is in all likelihood going to be occupied by Chase Utley for many years to come. Cardenas is ranked the number two prospect in the organization, and is batting .309 with 16 stolen bases.
Other prospects are SS Jason Donald, C Lou Marson, LHP Josh Outman, 2B Brad Harman, OF Greg Golson, and LHP Antonio Bastardo. Other than Carasco or Cardenas, no one really blows you away, although the upside potential is definitely there will all of them.
Nevertheless, the farm team is not teeming with trade bait. But the Big Show is.
Ryan Howard is prime trade bait. In Howard's short career he has been named the NL Rookie of the Year, NL MVP, Home Run Derby Champion, and he has led the league in home runs and RBIs over the past three years. He also broke the single season record for strikeouts last year and is on pace to shatter that record this year. Howard, in his second year, demanded that the Phillies pay him $1 million. The Phillies wanted to give him $900,000, which was the record for a second year player. The two sides went to arbitration and Howard was awarded a $1 million contract. The next year he demanded $10 million, the Phillies offered $7 million. The two sides went to arbitration again, and again Howard won. It appears that Howard is going to take the Phils to arbitration to each off season until his contract is up in 2011, at which point he is going to demand (and command) a ridiculous contract.
This is not the Phillies of old. This team is no longer afraid to shell out some money to bring or keep talent to Philly, but within reason. The Phillies are not going to be able to pay, or willing to pay, the kind of money that Howard is going to demand. And I do not entirely fault Howard for demanding the money he is, or will. How many players have the record that he does? If he continues to hit the way he did the last month before the all star break (.284, 11 HR, 30 RBI, .965 OPS), then he will right in the mix for his second MVP award. The man can hit, no doubt about it. When Howard doesn't strike out, he is hitting over .450.
That being said, that stat is part of the problem. Howard has also struck out 129 times this year. He struck out a total of 199 times last year. He has only walked 48 times. That means he strikes out almost three times as many times as he walks. You also have to take into consideration that Howard continues to be among the tops in the league in intentional walks, which decreases the amount of walks that he gets through patience and a good eye. Let's face it, Howard is a one dimensional player, perhaps the most one dimensional player in the majors. He either strikes out, or hits a home run. In the past month, Howard has one double and one triple. So out of 13 extra base hits, 11 of them are home runs. That is terrible.
Nevertheless, Howard is absolutely a key part to this team and its offense. You can't ignore the power numbers, which are the best in the game since he's been in the majors. That is why I think it is the perfect time to trade him.
Unless Howard has indicated otherwise to Phillies GM Pat Gillick, it does not appear he is really planning on staying here. He wanted to sign a long term deal after his rookie season and instead the Phils offered him a one year deal worth the $900,000, which at the time was the record for a second year player. This disappointed Howard (and for the record, I think the Phillies should have bit the bullet and signed him for at least close to whatever he was asking for) and now I think he is just going to price himself out of Philadelphia. Instead of going year to year through arbitration, the Phils should deal him to either the Yankees or Red Sox. Both teams have the money and the record of giving huge contracts to their players, and both are going to have a void in the next couple years that Howard is perfectly suited to fill.
Howard is a mediocre first baseman at best, but he isn't on your team for his defense. He is a player built for the American League and their stupid DH. Both the Yankees and Red Sox are going to be in need of a DH in the next couple years. The Yankees current DH platoon of Jason Giambi, Johnny Damon, and Hideki Matsui are about as banged up a bunch of highly paid veterans as you'll find anywhere in the majors. By 2011, at least two of these guys will be gone, whether through retirement or free agency. He would be the perfect replacement to fill the void that would be left by Giambi's bat.
An equally compelling team are the Red Sox. Current Boston DH David Ortiz (33 years old) is not getting any younger and has had a somewhat disappointing year. His power is down this year, and there has been some speculation that this could be related to the release of the Mitchell Report this past off season. Whether Ortiz's power is down due to steroids or because he is having an off year or because he is starting to decline, he is getting older and is not going to start getting significantly better. To the contrary, Ortiz is going to start declining over the next few years, if he hasn't already started. Howard is young enough to play first base for a number of years in Boston, or New York, while the current DH plays out the rest of his career.
Howard would bring the Phillies a serious number of prospects that they could use to a) bolster their farm system and help them build for the future or b) turn around and trade them for a serious starting pitcher that is on the same level as Sabathia or Harden.
They should trade for Matt Holliday, who would help fill the void left by trading Howard. They can give up some of those prospects in the farm system right now for Holliday. Then by trading Howard, they can use those prospects for a starter. Yes, that depletes the farm system for a number of years, but this team is young enough right now to contend for the World Series for years to come. They don't need the farm system to be bountiful right now with the exception of using those players as trade bait.
If Howard does actually want to stay here and will take a deal that won't make it impossible for them to sign and trade for other important pieces, then that's fine. Keep him here. I have no problems with Howard spending his entire career in Philadelphia. But I believe the Phillies are going to lose him eventually to free agency, so they should try and get the most for him that they can before he bleeds them dry and prices himself out of a trade. The time is now, they need to strike while the iron is hot. This is the best opportunity the Phillies have had to make it to the World Series in years and they need to take their shot now.
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