Whatever IT is, the Tribe does not have it. Not this year. There will be no division title this season. No playoffs. Nothing but a "talent" dump about six or seven weeks from now. This is not a knee-jerk rant following what must have been one of the most gut-wrenching losses of the year. (I wouldn't know because when FOX monopolizes Saturday afternoons I don't get to see the Tribe on the dish - and let me thank Uncle Rupert for small favors today). The Tribe is 7 1/2 out of first and three weeks from tonight they will have played their 81st game - the half-way point of the season. This, my friends, is a trend. It is reality. It is no longer believable to spout all those things that sound good - and are often true - in April and maybe even into early May. "It's early, there's plenty of time." "They'll start hitting when the weather gets warmer." Blah Blah Blah. There were many times throughout this season that I felt like pulling the trigger on a posting just like this one. But I said all of those things to myself about the team getting things straightened out and how no one is running away with the division. Well, the Sox have won 20 of their last 30 and seem to be starting to build that head of steam - that quiet confidence - that allows you to pull away when everyone is is still trying to figure out how to get the train on the tracks. The Tribe's longest winning streak this season has been five games - April 22-26. Of course they followed that up by losing three straight. Their best stretch of the year was their 8-2 run from May 6-15, when the starters were on that incredible scoreless-inning run. You will probably remember that the Tribe followed that up with seven straight losses. Through all of that I checked all the various fan blogs, poured over stats, watched most of the rest of the division struggle - all in an effort to find a reason to believe that this season was going to mean something after the 4th of July. It is becoming pretty clear that the only thing that will matter after Independence Day is the July 31 trade deadline. The results of that day, or the days leading to it, unfortunately will be the measuring stick that will determine if anything at all was accomplished this season. The offense got a boost of confidence in the hot winds of Arlington earlier this week. After weeks of struggling to put up one or two runs in a game, it now seems to have reached its true potential - four runs in a typical game. There will be scoring outbursts again to be sure. But the most you can expect from this group day-in and day-out is four. Two starting pitchers are on the shelf. Yet I have few worries there. The starting pitching depth built by the organization seems to be showing itself to be capable of weathering the storm. But this team, because of its below-average offense and quality starting pitching, will play a lot of close games - or at least games that are close until the bullpen gets in on the action. Other than Joe Borowski since his return from injury, there is not one arm out there you can count on. (And truthfully, how long do you think Borowski will last on that list of one?) For Eric Wedge, getting through the last few innings is like playing Russian Roulette, only with three of the six chambers loaded instead of one. Masa Kobayashi hasn't been bad, but you never know when he'll come out and blow up. Ditto for Raffie Perez. Raffie Betancourt is a disaster. No sense going through the rest of the pen because the names change almost daily and Wedge never has the confidence to use any of them anyway. Very few noticed when the Sox picked up Scott Linebrink and Octavio Dotel over the winter. And those in the Cleveland blogosphere who did notice snickered at the pickups. But those two have helped to stabilize the Sox pen - a key difference between this year's team and last. The Indians pen has done a 180 as well. But in the wrong direction. There doesn't seem to be much chance of the Tribe becoming more than a 3-to-5-runs-a-game team. The starters can't throw shutouts every night. The bullpen needs to be consistent and consistently good. There are about four pieces missing out there and it looks like there's little chance of making enough moves to fill that many holes. For those of us who have been watching this team for the past 40 years or so we know the drill. Head on out to Berea for a practice or two and wish for better things for the Indians next year. Nothing would please me more than to turn on my printer on Sept 30, punch up this piece, print it out, pour a large glass of water and eat my words. But I don't think that is going to happen.