Originally posted on Fangraphs  |  Last updated 4/16/12
Yesterday, the Dodgers and Padres played for the seventh time on the season. Just like they had done in five of the first six match-ups, the Dodgers ended up victorious. However, unlike the previous games, they got some significant assistance in coming out on top. Here’s the Win Expectancy graph of yesterday’s SD/LA match-up: Source: FanGraphs You’ll immediately notice a giant spike in the Dodgers’ Win Expectancy in the ninth inning, as they went from having just a 30.1% chance of winning to a 62.2% chance of winning on one play. This is how that play is described in the play log: Jesus Guzman hit into a triple play to catcher (Grounder). Yonder Alonso out at third. Chase Headley out at second. And this is what that play actually looked like: Jesus Guzman tried to bunt, but the pitch from Javy Guerra was way up and in. If it hadn’t hit Guzman’s bat, it would have nailed him in the chest, but the ball did manage to hit the bat as Guzman tried to spin out of the way. The ball then
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