Baseball America’s Top 30 Cubs Prospects, Part 1:  Tools and Draft Analysis

Baseball America’s annual prospect book is a must have in my opinion. The 2009 edition came out a week or two ago and I’ve been meaning to start a series on the Cubs prospects since I got it, but I’m lazy. I think Ryno and Sam will eventually complete their prospects series, but this one is solely based on BA’s 2009 Handbook. I’m going to break this down into 4 parts: Best Tools and Draft Analysis, 21-30, 11-20, and 1-10. Each year BA ranks each organizations prospects by their tools (hitting for average, baserunner, defense, infield arm, etc.). Best hitter for average: Josh Vitters Best power hitter: Josh Vitters Best strike-zone discipline: Sam Fuld Fastest baserunner: Tony Campana Best athlete: Brandon Guyer Best fastball: Jeff Samardzija Best curveball: Casey Lambert Best slider: Andrew Cashner Best control: Esmalin Caridad Best defensive catcher: Luis Flores Best infield arm: Junior Lake best defensive outfielder: Sam Fuld Best outfield arm: Kyler Burke Before you get too excited about the top prospects, here are the Cubs #1 prospects over the last 10 seasons: Corey Patterson, Corey Patterson, Corey Patterson, Mark Prior, Hee Seop Choi, Angel Guzman, Brian Dopirak, Felix Pie, Felix Pie, and Josh Vitters (also the number 1 prospect in 2009). The only player who has amounted to anything at all on that list is Mark Prior and he’s spent the last 30 or 40 years on the DL. Josh Vitters was the Cubs 1st round pick (3rd overall) in the 2007 draft. He has all kinds of talent, but here are the last 10 first picks for the Cubs: Ben Christensen, Luis Montanez, Mark Prior, Bobby Brownlie, Ryan Harvey, Grant Johnson (2nd round), Mark Pawelek, Tyler Colvin, Josh Vitters and Andrew Cashner. Study that list for a moment. Only one of them has reached the big leagues with the Cubs (Mark Prior). I believe Montanez made his debut last season with the Orioles, but he’s not a very good player. You wouldn’t expect some of them to reach the big leaugues yet but some of them we know for sure never will reach the big leagues with the Cubs. Christensen is out of baseball, Prior is with the Padres and Brownlie is with the Nationals organization. Furthermore, Harvey, Johnson and Pawelek have all dropped out of the top 30 prospects and Tyler Colvin has dropped to number 16. I don’t need to say anything about that for you to see how ridiculously bad that is. If Vitters follows the same path as the guy drafted in the 1st round before him, he’ll be out of the top 15 next year as well. I don’t think that’s likely to happen though. Brandon Guyer was picked by BA as a breakout candidate: “The system’s best athlete has the power and speed to move quickly if he can stay healthy.” The sleeper pick was Dan McDaniel (rhp): “The 2008 14th-rounder used his plus fastball/curve combo to dominate in his pro debut.” The Cubs gave out bonuses totaling $5.5 million in the 2008 draft. The rest of this is from the 2008 Draft Analysis section. The best pure hitter is SS Ryan Flaherty (1A) or C Matt Cerda (4). Flaherty hit .297 in the NWL and made the all-star team while Cerda batted .253 in rookie ball, but made the transition from shortstop to catcher while doing that. The best power hitter is 1B Rebel Ridling (25). Ridling hit 14 home runs after being drafted and reached Low A ball. Tony Campana (13) is the fastest runner and runs the 60-yard dash in 6.3 seconds. He stole 22 bases in 25 professional games after drafted. C Luis Flores (13) is the best defensive player and he threw out 49% of attempted basestealers. Andrew Cashner (1) has the best fastball. He was wild in his debut, but hit 99 mph and was “unhittable” in High A. His fastball sat between 96 and 98 mph as a reliever at TCU. Chris Carpenter (3) can hit 97 mph. Andrew Cashner’s slider is the best secondary pitch of the Cubs draft: “It has so much break it looks like a curveball at times.” RHP Jay Jackson (9) had the best pro debut by going 4-2 with a 2.88 ERA and 72 strikeouts to only 13 walks in 50 innings. He finished the season by winning a game in the postseaoson to help the Daytona Cubs win the championship. Jackson’s fastball sits in the low 90s, he throws a hard slider and has an average curve and a developing change. 2B Logan Watkins (21) is the best athlete. He can play 2nd, SS, and CF and he’s definitely got the scrappy/gritty mentality seeing as he was an all-start QB. We also know Watkins is good people since he’s from Kansas. Bob Brenly’s son, Michael (36), has the most intriguing background. Yeah, whatever. Talk your dad into retiring from the booth and I might care. RHP Casey Coleman’s (15) dad and grandpa were all-star pitchers Cashner would be the obvious choice for closest to majors “if the Cubs weren’t going to develop him as a starter.” RHP David Cales (24) is the next selection. The guy from Kansas was obviously the best late-round pick. RHP’s Alex Wilson (10) and Sonny Gray (27) are the ones who got away. Ryno mentioned Wilson on here the other day after a very good start for him in college and Sonny Gray is a first round talent that had no intention of signing with any team in the 2008 draft as his agent informed all teams he would not sign. Then again, why not draft him and try to sign him as the Cubs did? Couldn’t hurt. Overall Assessment: “The Cubs believe Cashner will develop as a starter. In RHP Aaron Schafer (2) and Carpenter, they added two more arms who projected as first-rounders before having elbow problems. Flaherty and Cerda have the potential for premium bats at premium positions.”