Editor's Note: In 2011 the key for the Mariners will be the performance of their young players. Over the next few weeks, we will preview the eleven players to keep your eye on in 2011. No. 11 and No. 10 Doug Fister and Jason Vargas, No. 9 Possible Breakout Players, No. 8 and No. 7 Dan Cortes and Josh Lueke, No. 6 2011 First Round Draft Pick
No. 5 Michael Saunders
2011 will be a make or break year for Michael Saunders. If he struggles, he is likely done with the Mariners. He has used up the waiting time. Although we have seen flashes of his potential, the whole package hasn’t been there. Most notably, Saunders has struggled to get on base. He hit 10 Home Runs in 289 at-bats (solid) but his average was a putrid .211.
Only looking at Saunders’ BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) of .260 it would be easy to assume he was unlucky in 2010. A low BABIP can sometimes mean that a hitter was unlucky because they hit many balls in play right at opposing fielders and they led to outs. For example, a line-drive right at the shortstop is still an out although the ball was hit hard. But a look at Saunders’ line-drive percentage of 16.5% (League average is 20.3%) shows that this likely was not the case. Saunders is hitting fly balls or ground balls, very little line-drives. This is a problem.
Saunders needs to improve his average. This means he needs to even his swing out for less ground balls AND less fly balls. The softly hit grounders are often a result of trying to hit the ball too hard and barely getting a piece of the it, causing a slow dribbler. If Saunders balances his swing out the HR rate may drop, but the AVG and line drives will shoot up.
Saunders doesn't need to be an all-star, he plays great defense and has decent speed and pop. If he can hit .270 with 15-20 HRs and 15-20 SBs down the road that is exactly the type of player this club could use in left field. This year, an increased amount of line drives and hard hit balls should increase his average, and would be a great sign that he is on the right track to be a Mariner for many years to come.
Photo Credit: (Otto Gruele/Getty Images North America)
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