It was another comeback victory for the Cleveland Indians (28-15) on Saturday. Down 1-0 and being two-hit by Homer Bailey, Travis Buck launched the first pitch he saw into the right field stands for a two-run homer. The Tribe held on to beat the Reds (25-21), 2-1.
Meanwhile, the second-place Royals (22-23) and Tigers (22-23) both dropped a game in the standings—Kansas City fell to St. Louis, 3-0, and Detroit lost to Pittsburgh to extend its losing streak to five games.
The Indians now have a 7.0-game lead in the AL Central over their closest competitors—a gap as wide as the entire spread of three other divisions. As a result, they’re back on top in projections for how the division will shake out.
Every day, BaseballProspectus.com calculates each team’s chances of making the playoffs by running a Monte Carlo simulation for the rest of the season, playing through all the remaining games a million times based on their projected winning percentages for each team.
Based on the Tribe’s current record and a .459 true-talent winning percentage going forward (the equivalent of a 74-win team over a full season), there is now a 39.1% chance that there will be baseball played in Cleveland after September 28.
That includes a 36.9% chance that the Indians will hold on to their lead in the AL Central and 2.1% odds that they will take the Wild Card. Yesterday, the Indians had just 1 in 3 odds of taking the division crown.
Meanwhile, the Tigers are given 33.8% odds winning the division. The White Sox have a 24.5% chance to catch the Indians. The Twins still somehow have a 4.3% odds to reclaim their title, and the Royals have just a 1 in 250 shot at the AL Central championship. The Indians’ gains have come mostly at the Tigers’ expense—Detroit has fallen from 52.7% odds last Saturday.
Also consider that BP’s PECOTA system is extremely skeptical about this Indians team going forward. PECOTA is slow to respond to real-life events (and for good reason), but a .459 true-talent winning percentage for a team that’s played .651 ball in 43 games? Any team that does this well as Cleveland has is unlikely to keep up such a torrid pace, but can a team that’s on pace for 105 wins really be called a 75-win team?
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Original Story:
http://www.wahooblues.com/2011/05/22/...
