Earthquakes strike Moneyball?!?

According to the Rocky Mountain News, A's wizard GM and all around baseball genius Billy Beane could be leaving the GM position as early as 2009? To do what you ask?

Apparently the rumor is that David Forst, currently Beane's protege and assistant GM has turned down every offer placed before him to GM for other teams around the league. And the reason he's holding out supposedly is that Beane is stepping down after this season to focus on his true passion, soccer. See the owners of the Oakland A's, headed by Lewis Wolff don't just own the A's, they're also the owners of the San Jose Earthquakes of Major League Soccer. Additionally the A's majority owner and GAP heir John Fisher is also a minority owner in Scotland's greatest football club, Celtic FC. And both Fisher and Beane are apparently nuts for soccer. So much so that Fisher shaved his head during the last world cup and painted the US flag on it while walking around Germany. And Beane apparently spends most afternoons watching the Premier League in the UK while planning his next blockbuster baseball trade. So as the rumor goes, Billy Beane will be leaving the A's to GM for the Earthquakes and will try his luck at applying Moneyball to soccer.



Now this idea isn't as insane as you think, part of Moneyball has always been about getting the most out of your aquisitions and players for the least cash. And soccer with it's infinitely smaller salaries and salary cap might just be a place to try this approach out. Additionally Beane doesn't even have to leave the organization he's in now to do so since the A's own the Quakes. But here's why it won't happen....

First, this entire rumor is based on the idea the Forst doesn't want to take a full GM position yet. I can think of one reason why right off the bat, Paul DePodesta. You may remember Paul from his days as... wait for it.... Billy Beane's assistant GM and protege. More than likely however you remember him from his disasterous tenure as Dodger's GM from which he was fired. Wonder what he's doing now? He's a lowly office assistant for the San Diego Padres. If you're Forst, looking at what happened to the last guy who left Beane's shadow, would you want to rush out and get burned? I know I wouldn't. I would stay right where I am learning from the master and waiting until I'm damn good and ready.

Second reason you won't see Beane abandon the A's GM spot (at least not full time), two words, Cisco Field. The A's new stadium is slated to open in the next 3-4 years by 2012. Right about the time all those recent aquisitions that Beane took heat for in the off season come to fruition. Also the new stadium has been said by the owners to be the impetus for a sizable payroll bump for the A's. Billy with money, will there be anything scarier to the rest of MLB? And it is yet another new situation for Billy to enjoy after years of toiling under the A's current limited budget. Not to mention did you know Billy is part owner of the A's, why would he leave HIS team to someone else?

The last reason this won't happen is that Moneyball might be a fun experiment in soccer for a while, but in the end it won't work. Soccer has never been the game of stats that Baseball has always been. And the heart of Moneyball is stats and statistics. So no matter how much passion for the game Billy has personally, his methods would ultimately fail. And ultimately the Quakes would have to fire Quakes GM John Doyle, whom they just gave the job to this year to bring Billy in because Billy Beane doesn't play second fiddle to anyone if he's full GM. That's why if you see Billy get involved with soccer, it will be a part time dabbling assisting Doyle while continuing his GM duties with the A's and continuing to work toward his ultimate vindication with the A's, a World Series ring.