Gwynn Numbers: Strikeout Minutiae

The long walk back to the dugout after having swung a bat and missed -- abject failure personified.

I came across an interesting comment on strikeouts and batting title qualification yesterday morning. Naturally I thought of Tony Gwynn . . .



From Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe:

From the Bill Chuck* files. “Over the last 10 seasons, only three players who qualified for the batting title have struck out fewer than 100 times each season: Ichiro Suzuki, Albert Pujols, and Damon (Johnny).

*This stat comes from a Nick Cafardo column but it is contributed by a guy named Bill Chuck.

When I think of Ichiro and Albert Pujols I think of great hitters, batting champions. Johnny Damon not so much. But this is not about batting championships. It's about guys who received the requisite number of plate appearances to qualify for a batting title (502), to do it for 10 straight seasons, and to have K'd less than a 100 times in each season. I thought it would have been a higher number of players but 'tis a rare thing to stay injury free for ten seasons.

Ichiro

Ichiro Suzuki is a contact hitter. There's no surprise that he is a part of this short list. In winning 2 batting titles during his 11 seasons, Ichiro has averaged 68 strikeouts per season with a low of 53 and a high of 86. For a slap hitter who controls the zone so well these numbers seem high. Despite only two batting titles Ichiro's flurry of 200* hit seasons have led him to a career .326 BA.

*This incredible run ended in 2011 when Ichiro took a nose-dive, collecting a mere 186 hits with a .272 BA.

Pujols

Albert Pujols is a power hitter. But he's also a great hitter. In winning 1 batting title during his 11 seasons, Albert has averaged 64 strikeouts per year with a low of 50 and a high of 93. The 93 Ks occurred during Pujols' rookie year and he hasn't been close to that figure since. Despite only 1 batting title Albert Pujols has a career .328 BA.

Idiot

Johnny Damon is some guy who claimed to be an idiot. His teams over the last 10 years have mostly been winners but he's never won a batting title. To date, Johnny Damon's career is significantly longer than Ichiro's (11) and Pujols' (11) as he has just finished his 17th year. In his 17 seasons Damon has averaged 72 strikeout per year but in his last three years (ages 35-39) he has averaged 93 Ks. Time is slowly catching up with Johnny Damon -- idiot. Johnny Damon once hit .327 during a season. Unfortunately it was only good for tenth place in 2000. He has a career .286 BA.

Clearly Johnny Damon is not in the same class of hitters as Ichiro Suzuki and Albert Pujols. We already knew this. But in living through what appears to be the Age of the Strikeout, Johnny Damon's relative consistency is noteworthy even though, as a lead-off hitter*, he really shouldn't strikeout that much. He should also be lauded for staying healthy, and in so doing, keeping himself on the field and in the line-up.

*In 1573 of Johnny Damon's 2426 games he has hit 1st in the batting order.

Which brings us to Tony Gwynn

Tony Gwynn is masterful. Batting crown discussions begin with the names of Cobb and Hornsby but often end with Gwynn. The man has a statue for crying-out-loud! We know all of this.

In his 20 year career Tony Gwynn averaged a God-like 22 strikeouts per year. His high was 40 Ks in 1988 when he squeaked out a batting title with a .313 BA. His lowest strikeout total (in a batting title qualifying year) was 15 in 1995 when he won his 6th batting title with a .368 BA.

What about the 1997 season when Gwynn started to synthesize all of his knowledge about hitting and stroked a career high 17 HRs? He still only struck out 28 times.

In the last ten years of Gwynn's career (1991-2011) the 1997 season was the only one in which he left the teens for strikeout totals, averaging only 16*.

*Due to injuries, Tony Gwynn only qualified for the batting title in 6 of those 11 seasons.

Tony Gwynn Could Hit So What's The Point?

I have to go back to Johnny Damon. He's 38 years old and entering his 18th season. He is a fit man so a couple of more seasons seems reasonable as he's managed to average 146 games per year over the last three seasons. If he can average the same number of hits (149 in 2010 and 2011) over the next two seasons then retire he would finish with 3021 hits for his career. Johnny Damon -- Idiot -- could find himself at the magical 3000 plateau which nearly ensures induction into the Baseball Hall of Fame*.

*Those in the 3000 hit club who are not in the HOF: Rafael Palmeiro (likely burned the bridge when he wagged finger at Congress and then tested positive for PEDs); Craig Biggio (eligible for HOF in 2013); Derek Jeter (Active. And a shoo-in). Oh yea . . . Pete Rose too.

Gwynn and Damon

Currently Johnny Damon has 2723 hits scattered across 10,693 plate appearances. Tony Gwynn finished with 3,141 hits in 10,232 PAs . . . which is 461 fewer PAs than Johnny Damon. If Johnny Damon gets to 3000 hits then it will have taken him roughly 1500 more plate appearances than it took Tony Gwynn to accomplish the mark. Clearly this discrepancy in PAs and Hits will account for Johnny Damon's low-.280ish BA at career's end.

A Gwynn comparison isn't fair to Johnny Damon. With 8 batting titles to his credit Tony Gwynn is the gold standard when it comes to hitting. It is how he is remembered. Consequently he is in Baseball's Hall of Fame.

When Johnny Damon retires with more than 3000 hits to his name I will remember him as follows: part of the 2004 Red Sox; a flimsy looking swing; a massive jaw-line; and a self-proclaimed idiot.

After the event takes place I'll likely nod my head in affirmation and make a weird face. And then I'll write something about Tony Gwynn. And then, other than to acknowledge he had a nice career, I won't think of Johnny Damon again.