Found July 17, 2008 on
Another Cubs Blog:
Tyger asked if I could do the Brewers and Cardinals like I did the Cubs earlier today. I probably won't get to the Cardinals until tomorrow at the earliest, but I did do the Brewers who everybody seems to think is the Cubs toughest competitor in the NL Central.
The Brewers already have 52 wins. A replacement level team would win 19.6 of the remaining 67 games. The Brewers starting 8 projected WAR the rest of the way is 5.4. The rotation projected WAR is 6.5.
That's 83.5 wins. That is 7.3 behind the 90.8 wins projected for the Cubs. The Cubs pitching is better, the Cubs offense is better, they're just a better team than the Brewers. They were better than them when the season began and they're better than them now.
As I said before, this doesn't include the bullpen (the Cubs bullpen is much better), the bench, baserunning and defense is considered to be average. Of all the things left out you probably have, over only 67 games, about 6 wins maximum. That may be wrong, but it's not that many. Even if the Brewers had the best bullpen on the planet, the best bench ever, their baserunning was unbelievably good and their defense was fantastic (which it is not!), the Brewers would still more than likely not be projected to win more games than 90.8 games.
This is the Cubs division to win. Period. If they don't win it, it's not because the Brewers or Cardinals were great teams and had a great run. It's because the Cubs blew it. Simple as that.
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