Over the last couple years, Cleveland Indians right fielder Shin-Soo Choo has unquestionably turned into one of the most—if not the most—underappreciated players in all of baseball.
Photo by Keith Allison (from flickr.com)
From 2009-10, Choo led all MLB outfielders with a .397 on-base percentage. He came in fifth in OPS (.884) and fourth in wOBA (.389) and wRC+ (141). At 11.1 wins above replacement, he was the third-best outfielder in baseball, trailing only Carl Crawford for best in the American League. By one metric, he was the second-best player in all of baseball last year.
And yet, Choo barely gets any recognition for his incredible talent. In his arbitration settlement earlier this year, he agreed to a deal that paid him like a league-average player. He’s never been to an All-Star Game, and in last year’s MVP voting he was named on just four of the 28 ballots cast and finished 14th, behind inferior candidates like Vladimir Guerrero, Delmon Young, and Rafael Soriano. In the words of a FanGraphs commenter in December:
Choo is the only player with the power to remain underrated while he’s everyone’s go-to example of an underrated player.
Such is the life of a player on a bad small-market team. But now that the Tribe is off to a scorching start—even after Wednesday’s 14-2 loss, the Indians have the best record (30-17) in baseball—Choo finally has a chance to be recognized as the star he truly is.
Alas, now that the world is watching, he’s posting his worst offensive numbers ever. Discounting partial seasons of 10 games or fewer, Choo’s .247 average, .328 OBP, and .382 slugging percentage all represent the lowest of his career. Despite the increased lineup protection he’s on pace for just 17 home runs, 76 RBI, and 79 runs scored, all of which would be career lows in a full season.
With the Tribe’s best player in a prolonged slump, the question on every Indians fan’s lips is: What’s wrong with Shin-Soo Choo? The answer should be quite heartening for Tribe fans: not much.
Looking at Choo’s less superficial stats, the only real drop-off is in his plate discipline. His walk rate has dropped from 12.8% last year to 9.8% this year—still a very good figure—while he’s striking out in 23.0% of his plate appearances, up from 18.3% in 2010.
But looking at his swing rates, there aren’t any real red flags. He’s actually swinging at fewer pitches out of the zone (23.5%) than he did last year (26.8%). In fact, his problem may be that he’s being too picky—he’s swinging at just 65.5% of pitches in the zone, down from 68.0% in 2010. The only real trouble is that when he does swing, he’s making contact less often—he’s at 75.3%, down from 79.0% in 2010 (though he did quite well for himself in 2009 with a virtually identical contact rate).
Beyond that, though, there doesn’t seem to be anything to worry about. Despite his lackluster .135 ISO, Choo hasn’t lost his pop—his .659 Power Factor is actually better than his .612 mark from 2010. With seven swiped bases already this year, he hasn’t lost his speed. And his current batted-ball profile is almost identical to last year’s.
No, Choo’s real problem is bad luck. Choo’s .302 hit rate is by far the lowest he’s ever had—his career average is .354. According to The Hardball Times’ fantastically amazing xBABIP calculator, his xBABIP comes in at a much heartier .333. If we substitute Choo’s xBABIP for his BABIP, his slashline jumps from .247/.328/.382 to .269/.350/.447, bringing his OPS up to .797.
But while a .797 OPS makes him look a lot more like the player we’ve come to know and love, it would still represent a career low for Choo. Consider, though, that this is a year when the park-adjusted league-average OBP and SLG are .311 and .380, respectively. That means, based on his luck-neutral numbers, Choo has a split-OPS+ of 130—maybe not quite his normal self, but we’re in the right ballpark.
Assuming for simplicity that a 130 OPS+ equals a 130 wRC+ and doing some fuzzy behind-the-scenes math, Choo would be on pace for exactly 8.0 WAR in a luck-neutral context. That’s MVP production right there.
Finally, besides the blip in his contact rate and his problems with luck, there is the fact that Choo has still been a great player. In spite of his offensive struggles, his 101 wRC+ shows that he’s still an above-average hitter (if only slightly so). And whatever shortcomings he’s had with his bat, he’s made up for with his glove—UZR is far from gospel this early in the season, but at +8.7 runs Choo comes out as the third-best fielder in all of baseball.
All told, Choo has 1.5 WAR in 47 games—good for 5.2 wins over a full season. That puts him on par with what Adrian Gonzalez and Jayson Werth did last year and ahead of his own production in 2009 (he hasn’t missed a game yet and he’s not likely to maintain a 30.0 UZR/150 all season, but the point stands).
Is there reason to be concerned about Choo? Sure—his decreased contact rate isn’t a good sign, and the fact that his xBABIP is 21 points lower than his career hit rate suggests that he might not be hitting the ball as well as as he used to.
But his biggest problem has been simple bad luck, and even if his numbers reflected his true talent level he’d still be a phenomenal player. Only Shin-Soo Choo with his unparalleled power to be woefully unappreciated could have people worried about him while he plays like an All-Star.
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Original Story:
http://www.wahooblues.com/2011/05/27/...
