It’s a matter of when the Cubs get Peavy, not if

According to Barry Bloom on mlb.com, the Cubs sale being finalized will result in the Cubs and Padres completing the trade that would send Peavy to the Cubs. A previously discussed trade of All-Star right-handed pitcher Jake Peavy from the Padres to the Cubs is expected to be revived once the sale of the Chicago club is finalized later this spring, sources close to the situation told MLB.com. Neither team, however, indicated Monday that the sides are actively re-engaged on the topic. Nevertheless, other highly placed sources suggested the move looks like a matter of when, not if, based on various developments. Negotiations toward a deal, widely publicized these last two months, previously involved additional teams. But as the Cubs have buttoned up other moves, they now appear prepared to acquire Peavy in a two-team transaction with the Padres. Of course, the deals that happen are the ones we’ve never heard about so this won’t happen. For what it’s worth, using Peavy’s 2009 Marcels projection to calculate his WAR, and using the same number of innings I used for Marshall who would be the odd man out in the rotation, Peavy is worth 4.59 WAR, or nearly 3 wins more than Sean Marshall in the same number of innings. This doesn’t include a necessary park adjustment to that projection. His Marcels ERA is 3.22 and moving from the most pitcher friendly park to one of the most hitter friendly parks would see his ERA jump by about .5 runs. At a 3.72 ERA and 167 IP, Peavy is 3.46 WAR. Then consider he’s likely to pitch more than 167 innings. If he threw 200 innings, he’s a 4.15 WAR player as a Cub. That’s worth $20.47 million and Peavy makes only $11 million in 2009. The Cubs rotation would be ridiculous. 4 of the starters would be 3.4 WAR or better pitchers and Ted Lilly is just under 3 WAR at 2.92. He’d be the team’s 5th starter! That’s a crazy good rotation.