Originally written on Feelin' Kinda Blue  |  Last updated 12/15/12
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If only Adrian Beltre was a free agent this winter... Luis Cruz was a nice story. He really was. But a "nice story" isn't good enough to be a starting third baseman in Major League Baseball. Cruz, 28, got a chance to play this season and took advantage of it. He hit .297/.322/.431 in 78 games. He had surprising pop, hitting six home runs and 20 doubles (tied for fourth-best on the team). But there's one key statistic that shows Cruz is probably due for a regression in 2013: his walk rate. Baseball is about getting on base, and Cruz did that about 32 percent of the time in 2012. Not bad for a utility player, but not good enough for an every day third baseman. He walked just 3 percent of his plate appearances (nine times in 296 plate appearances) and his batting average on balls in play was a little better than average (.320). When he stops hitting at a .297 clip, which is going to happen because he's Luis Cruz, his on-base percentage will plummet. It's simple math (and I...
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