Marlins at Cubs Game Thread

Time and place: 12:05 pm, Wrigley Field TV: FS-F, CSN, mlb.tv (FOX blackout???) Gameday, Box ACCUSCORE Projection: 65% chance Cubs win CubsF/X Preview Berselius's Preview ACB Preview 2009 W-L: 14-9 2009 RS/RA: 118/113 2009 Pythag W: 11.4 Playoff Odds: 8.3% 2009 Avg Prj W: 73 2008 Actual W: 84 2008 PythagenPat W: 81 Avg Prj RS: 735 2008 RS: 770 Avg RA: 813 2008 RA: 767 Division %: 1% Wild Card %: 1% Playoff %: 2% High W: 76 (chone) Low W: 66 (zips) Gap: 10 Avg Div Plc: 4 Starting Pitcher: Anibal Sanchez: 1-2, 4.13 Sanchez vs. Cubs hitters AB H HR BB SO BA OBP SLG Soriano 13 3 2 3 0 .231 .375 .769 Miles 3 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 Theriot 3 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 Fontenot 2 1 0 1 0 .500 .667 .500 Fukudome 1 0 0 1 1 .000 .500 .000 Platoon Splits PA HR SO/BB OPS vs RHB 435 10 2.11 .686 vs LHB 534 11 1.15 .769 Balls in Play GB/FB LD GB FB IFFB HR/FB 2009 1.33 .21 .45 .34 .19 .07 Career 1.15 .18 .44 .384 .14 .08 Pitch Type Plate Discipline THT Stats Graphs PitchF/X Cubs F/X WPA Play Log LINEUP Bonafacio, 2B Hermida, LF Ramirez, SS Cantu, 1B Paulino, C Helms, 3B Ross, RF Maybin, CF Sanchez, P 2009 W-L: 11-11 2009 RS/RA: 105/110 2009 Pythag W: 10.3 Playoff Odds: 58.1% 2009 Avg Prj W: 91 2008 Actual W: 97 2008 PythagenPat W: 99 Avg Prj RS: 815 2008 RS: 855 Avg RA: 713 2008 RA: 671 Division %: 66% Wild Card %: 9% Playoff %: 75% High W: 95 (zips) Low W: 88 (chone) Gap: 7 Avg Div Plc: 1 Starting Pitcher: Ted Lilly: 2-2, 3.80 Lilly vs. Marlins hitters AB H HR BB SO BA OBP SLG Cantu 12 3 0 1 2 .250 .308 .333 Paulino 10 6 1 1 0 .600 .636 1.100 Ramirez 7 1 0 0 1 .143 .143 .143 Hermida 6 4 0 0 0 .667 .667 1.000 Uggla 5 2 2 0 1 .400 .286 1.600 Platoon Splits PA HR SO/BB OPS vs RHB 1242 25 2.93 .592 vs LHB 1374 27 1.99 .664 Balls in Play GB/FB LD GB FB IFFB HR/FB 2009 0.43 0.14 0.26 0.60 0.24 0.12 Career 0.78 0.21 0.35 0.45 0.14 0.11 Pitch Type Plate Discipline THT Stats Graphs PitchF/X Cubs F/X WPA Play Log LINEUP Soriano, LF Theriot, SS Fukudome, CF Lee, 1B Hoffpauir, RF Fontenot, 3B Soto, C Miles, 2B Lilly, P Saturday, 12:05 pm @ Wrigley Field -- Anibal Sanchez, RHP (1-2, 4.13) vs. Ted Lilly, LHP (2-2, 3.80) Anibal Sanchez links: ESPN • THT • Fangraphs • B-ref Sanchez has been a groundball pitcher in his career (1.15 GB/FB). He's at 1.33 in 2009. Sanchez strikes out about 6.26 batters per 9 in his career. He struckout 8.71 per 9 last year. He doesn't have great control. He's walked 4.17 per 9 in his career and is at 3.75 so far this yar. Last year he was 4.70 per 9. His BABIP this year is .330 and it was .329 last year so he's been a bit unlucky the last year plus. His FIP is 3.99 and his x-FIP is 4.72 He's made 4 starts so far this year. His first start on April 10th was his best. His last start on the 27th was his worst. He allowed 8 hits and 6 earned runs in 6 innings against the Mets. Sanchez throws 4 pitches: fastball, slider, curveball, and chageup. His fastball sits at about 90 mph and he throws it 53.1% of the time. He uses his slider 18.7% of the time, the changeup 16.7% of his pitches and his curveball 11.5%. These are 2009 numbers. They vary slightly from his career averages so take them with a grain of salt at this point. Sanchez throws a first-pitch strike 61.1% of the time this year (just 56.4% last year and 51.7% in 2007). His fangraphs pitchf/x page has him throwing his fastball 46.2% of the time and his slider up at 27.8%. His pitch frequency chart is below: Sanchez has only faced the Cubs hiters 22 times. He's faced Soriano 13 times and Soriano is 3-13 with a double and 2 home runs including 3 walks. FIP Projections CHONE: 4.35 Marcel: 4.37 ZiPS 4.38 Bill James: 4.33 Ted Lilly links: ESPN • THT • Fangraphs • B-ref Ted Lilly is as close to an extreme flyball pitcher as you'll get. His GB/FB rate in 2009 is 0.43. Only Koji Uehara (0.40) allows fly balls more frequently than Lilly has this year. Lilly was tied for 5th in lowest GB/FB rate in 2008 at 0.75. Oliver Perez led the way at 0.70. Lilly's strikeouts are down so far this year. He's striking out only 6.08 batters per 9 after striking out 8.09 in 2008 and 7.57 in 2007. His walk rate is the lowest it's been in his career at 2.28. Last year he walked 2.81 per 9 and in 2007 he walked 2.39 per 9. That followed 3 years in a row above 4 per 9. Lilly's control is much improved over those days. Lilly's BABIP is .228 so he's gotten quite lucky so far. His line drive rafte is only 14.3% so that's going to go up. His FIP is 5.36 and his x-FIP is 5.47. Those are alarmingly high despite his overall 3.80 ERA. Lilly has made 4 starts so far this season and has gone at least 5 innings in each of them. He's had 2 outstanding starts on April 13th against the Rockies and April 22nd against the Reds. He threw a combined 13.2 innings and allowed 6 hits, no runs, walked 2 and struckout 10. His last start a couple days ago in Arizona was not a good one. He only got threw 5 innings and allowed 10 baserunners (6 hits and 4 walks) and surrendered 5 earned runs. Ted throws a fastball, slider, curve, and a change. 42.0% of his pitches in 2009 have been fastballs. This is down from 56.4% in 2007 and 48.9% in 2008. His velocity has been 86.8 mph, which is down from 87.4 last year. Lilly didn't start throwing as hard as he's capable of until May began last year if I recall correctly. He's thrown 30% sliders, which is up from 14.7% in 2007 and 23.7% in 2008. Lilly's best pitch in 2007 was his curveball and he threw it 16.9% of his pitches, but the last 2 years he's thrown it 11.3% and 11.4% respectively. He's thrown his changeup 16.6% of the time. Lilly fired a first-pitch strike 62.7% of the time last year, but only 54.2% of the time so far this year. That's more likely nothing but a sample size issue. Lilly has gotten very few out of the zone swings from hitters in 2009. League average is 24.3% and Lilly has only gotten them to swing 15% of the time. That's down from 26.6% in 2008 and 26.2% in 2007. He's just getting fewer overall swings this year than he has the last couple. On Lilly's pitchf/x page, it says he's thrown his fastball 37.1% of the time and his slider 26.5% of the time. Below is Lilly's pitch frequency chart. The Marlins have only 49 at-bats against Lilly. Ronny Paulino is 6-10 with 2 doubles and a home run. Dan Uggla is 2-5 with 2 home runs. FIP Projections CHONE: 4.30 Marcel: 4.34 ZiPS 4.12 Bill James: 4.54