One of my pet peeves

One of the things that really annoys me is a batter automatically taking a pitch on a 3-0 count. I’ve never understood that. That is the best count a batter can possibly be in. He worked the count to 3-0 so he could have that advantage. Why do some hitters automatically take the pitch and why do managers not allow some players to swing at it? Do you have any idea how good hitters do on 3-0 counts? MLB hitters must not. MLB managers must not. MLB hitters have posted a cartoon-like .705 wOBA on 3-0 counts. To give you an idea just how good that is, check out the “at 2-0.” .405 wOBA. Only 12 qualified MLB players had a wOBA higher than .400 last year. The average MLB hitter on a 2-0 count is better than David Wright’s .397 wOBA in 2008. They’re equal to Hanley Ramirez’s .405 wOBA. We’re talking superstar. An average player becomes a superstar hitter on a 2-0 count. On a 3-0 count they become the best hitter in the history of this game and it’s not even remotely close. Some of you may say that the hitter still has the advantage if it’s 3-1. That’s undoubtedly true. At 3-1, the average MLB hitter still hits for a ridiculous .564 wOBA. That’s just not as good an advantage as they had at 3-0. Let’s convert these to runs to make it simpler. The 3-0 count is worth .319 runs above average. The 3-1 count is .197 runs above average. The difference in these 2 counts is .123 runs. This assumes that all pitchers throw a strike on 3-0 and that the batter is always taking or swings but doesn’t put the ball in play. That’s not true and there are some ways we could calculate the overall difference, but the point is that hitting on a 3-0 count makes even a replacement level hitter so good that you wouldn’t want to face that kind of player ever. If a hitter is automatically taking on a 3-0 count he’s perfectly happy to have a 3-1 count. They shouldn’t be. If a batter is automatically taking on ten 3-0 counts then, as i said, he’s happy to have it 3-1 and is therefore happy to have reduced his offense above average by 1.2 runs. Ryan Theriot is pretty much a league average hitter. He had 36 plate appearances in 2008 in which the count got to 3-0. In 36 plate appearances he was happy to let the count go to 3-1. That’s 4.4 runs. Of course, it’s important to note that Theriot’s, or any other player’s automatic taking on a 3-0 count can’t simply be calculate in runs by the difference of the 3-0 and 3-1 counts. It’s certainly less than 4.4 runs, but the simple fact that players are so willing to let the count go to 3-1 rather than hitting a pitch right down the middle of the plate is irritating. While they are still an outstanding hitter on 3-1 counts, they’re better on 3-0. That’s the bottom line. If you’re better in 3-0 counts then you should never automatically take and you should never be given the take sign by the coaching staff.