The Orioles know well that pitching isn’t a sure thing–Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta, and Brad Bergesen have all had their ups and downs in adjusting to the bigs. With only Brian Matusz established as an above-average starter along with longtime Oriole hurler Jeremy Guthrie, the team sought another veteran arm to come in and hedge the O’s bets with the youngsters.
They got their man in signing longtime Athletics pitcher Justin Duchscherer.
Duchscherer has had some stellar results in his career, owning a 3.31 career ERA. His FIP is higher than that, but Duchscherer has proven that he can sustain low batting averages on balls in play (career .265; that can’t be a fluke), so he can usually pitch above his peripherals.
That’s led to the soft-tossing righty posting ERAs in the mid-to-high 2′s as a starter.
Duchscherer isn’t an imposing pitcher, working with a low-80′s cutter and high-60′s curveball. His two-pitch mix is reminiscent of a righthanded Doug Davis, but Duchscherer’s pinpoint control allows him to get better results.
Well worth the maximum of $4.5 million on his contract (he needs to make 30 starts to get that, and the base salary is a mere $1.1 million if he makes the team), Duchscherer has too long of a track record of success to make this signing a bad one, as Orioles fans are desperate for anyone who can put zeroes on the board.
The only question with Duchscherer is his health: he’s made only five starts since 2009 due to various injuries and a bout with clinical depression. For what it’s worth, he did pitch well in the five starts, although his location, particularly with the curveball, was off.
The other question is if and when Duchscherer’s lack of “stuff” will catch up to him–it caught up with Davis in 2010, and they’re pretty comparable pitchers. Davis, however, is two years Duchscherer’s senior, has more complicated mechanics, and never had sharp command, so it would be foolish to assume Duchscherer has more than a mild probably of falling prey to a similar fate. Of course, it’s anyone’s guess where his stuff will be after all the time off, but he looked good enough to get a major league offer, and I’d imagine that he must be back in full form then–it’s not like he could be much off his typical velocity and look anything like a pitcher who deserves an MLB contract.
Anyway, this is a pretty low-risk, high-reward signing for the Orioles. No, Duchscherer won’t get them into the playoffs, but he buys time and seasoning for the young arms while adding credibility to a long-struggling mound corps in Baltimore. For a salary that maxes out at slightly under what John Lannan was worth in 2010? Great deal for the Birds.
Original Story:
http://fansided.com/baseball/2011/01/...
