Found August 29, 2013 on
St. Louis Cardinals
Acquiring Marlon Byrd did not swing the playoff odds too much, but Wednesday night’s win certainly did. (Photo Credit: David Hague)
It would take a Hindenburg-esque crash for the Pirates to miss the MLB postseason (98-percent chance Bucs make it), but it is unlikely they will take the NL Central over the St. Louis Cardinals (32 percent).
The Bucs can shoulder some blame. The Pirates are 12-13 in August, a month that started with their 13-0 loss to the Cards. Meanwhile, St. Louis has rolled off a 16-11 record since the July 31 trade deadline, including those two extra-innings wins over Pittsburgh at Busch Stadium.
It takes two to tango for a division.
Take a look at the standings –
National League Central
St. Louis: 78-55
Pittsburgh: 77-55 (0.5 games back)
Cincinnati: 75-59 (3.5 games back)
National League Wild Card
Pittsburgh: 77-55 (3.0 games ahead)
Cincinnati: 75-59 (—)
Arizona: 68-64 (6.0 games back of Cincinnati)
Washington: 67-65 (7.0 games back of Cincinnati)
On to the odds!
Baseball Prospectus: 92.6 wins, 69.4 losses, 32.4% division odds, 98.7% playoff odds
BP projects Andrew McCutchen to finish with 6.0 wins above replacement level, most of any NL position player. (Photo Credit: David Hague)
If you’re only interested in the Bucs making the eight-team playoffs (aka the Division Series round), Prospectus gives them a 64.2-percent chance to do so. St. Louis gets 53.3-percent odds to win the division, and Pittsburgh certainly has better than a puncher’s chance to take the Central from STL.
BP says there is a 6.4-percent chance that the Arizona Diamondbacks or Washington Nationals grab a Wild Card spot. That’s not impossible, but it’s just another reminder you will almost certainly see the one-game playoff settled in St. Louis, Pittsburgh or Cincinnati.
It sure was a good thing that Nationals saved Stephen Strasburg’s arm last season, eh?
Clay Davenport: 92 wins, 70 losses, 32.5% division odds, 98.1% playoff odds
For the first time (that we have seen) Davenport has shown higher odds for the Pirates to win the NL Central than Prospectus has. While St. Louis is still favored, that fact could change if the Pirates win or sweep this weekend’s series in Pittsburgh.
One interesting point: both Prospectus and Davenport project the Atlanta Braves to win 96 or 97 games and earn home-field advantage throughout the NL playoffs. That means it is likely the Wild Card winner will have to face Atlanta in the NLDS. Could the Pirates and Braves be on another postseason collision course?
FanGraphs: 92.6 wins, 69.4 losses, 31.1 % division odds, 98.5% playoff odds
The site, which now runs binomial simulations to offer percentage odds (!!!), says there is a 64.6-percent chance the Pirates reach the division series. That number is close to Prospectus’ number, so we can say the Bucs have a roughly two in three chance to make the eight-team bracket.
If you average out FanGraphs’ and Baseball Prospectus’ odds, the Bucs have a 4.5-percent chance to win the World Series. So get your bets in now. Also, FanGraphs projects a 10-percent chance the NL Central ends in a two-way tie, in which case the two tied teams would play a one-game playoff. The winner would go to the NLDS and the loser would host the Wild Card Playoff.
What will Marlon Byrd provide?
Projection systems have a long memory, so they remember Byrd’s poor numbers from 2012. (Photo Credit: David Hague)
The systems say… not much. Both Baseball Prospectus and FanGraphs project Byrd to be worth 0.1 WAR over the last month of the regular season. Keep in mind that even a good player like Neil Walker is only projected to be worth 0.3 or 0.4 wins, so don’t lose sleep over it.
Both sites also project John Buck to be worth 0.1 WAR the rest of the season, mostly because of good defense. He is only expected to hit around .222/.293/.380.
Prospectus expects Byrd to hit .263/.312/.412 the rest of the season, and FanGraphs .262/.309/.427. Those are pretty good numbers, but both sites see better future performance from Garrett Jones. You can either cry and say both systems are putting too much weight on Byrd’s poor numbers last year, or you can climb aboard the “Platoon Byrd and Jones in RF and Acquire Justin Morneau” Bandwagon that I am driving.
Plenty of room for a friend and a calculator.
BEST OF MAXIM
AROUND THE WEB
(Follow me on Twitter @jim_krug; opening image credit John Banks, Getty Images)
Buck; image credit cdn.newsday
1. With as big of a critic as I’ve been towards Pittsburgh Pirates’ GM Neal Huntington over the years, I have to give him some credit for yesterday’s waiver trade with the New York Mets, which brought the Buccos OF Marlon Byrd and C John Buck. Although OF Alfonso...
With today’s trade of Marlon Byrd and John Buck, the Mets got a very intriguing prospect from the Pirates, 19 year-old second base prospect Dilson Herrera.
Herrera is a converted third baseman out of Cartagena, Columbia who is three years in to his professional baseball career, and in his second year playing in the U.S., after spending time in the Venezuelan Summer League in 2011...
New York Mets fans fired up to attend Tuesday night's Marlon Byrd T-shirt night might end up a little disappointed when the outfielder isn't in the lineup ... and when they don't get a Marlon Byrd "Let it fly" T.
Turns out the Mets traded Byrd to the playoff-contending Pittsburgh Pirates on Tuesday afternoon. A few hours after the deal, the team's website...
Marlon Byrd was last seen wearing a Phillies uniform in the early games of the 2005 season. He was later traded to the Nationals, and has been been to many other teams since then. Last year, after being released by the Boston Red Sox and being suspended for a banned substance, he found himself without a job this past winter. The Mets took a chance on him, in the form of a minor...
Marlon Byrd didn’t have the game-winning hit or even the knockout blow, really, when the Pirates beat the Brewers Wednesday. But, the Pirates’ newest addition to the starting lineup made the most noise with a three-run home run over the center field fence and into the bushes that broke open a 4-1 ballgame in the bottom of the seventh.
“It was one of those things, you come to...
Marlon Byrd celebrated his arrival in Pittsburgh with a three-run homer, and the Pirates beat the Milwaukee Brewers 7-1 on Wednesday night.
Byrd, acquired along with catcher John Buck from the New York Mets on Tuesday, hit his 22nd homer of the season into the bushes in center field in the seventh inning as Pittsburgh ended a three-game losing streak.
Josh Harrison went 3 for 4...
The Pirates have acquired veteran outfielder Marlon Byrd and catcher John Buck from the New York Mets in a trade Tuesday a source confirmed to the Post-Gazette.
The Pirates also got cash as part of the deal and the Mets will receive minor league shortstop Dilson Herrera and a player to be named later.
The move which comes in five days before the Aug. 31 waiver trade deadline should...
In a move that should help both teams, the New York Mets traded outfielder Marlon Byrd and catcher John Buck to the Pirates for prospect Dilson Herrera. While Byrd and Buck will try to help the Bucs win now, Herrera is a low level prospect with a high ceiling.
The scouting report on Dilson Herrera is an infielder that projects to be a second baseman. He has quick hands and can hit...
Born: August 30, 1977
Drafted: 10th Round, 306th Overall, 1999 (Phillies)
How Acquired: Trade from Mets (with John Buck for Dilson Herrera and PTBNL)
College: Georgia Perimeter College
WTM’S PIRATE PLAYER PROFILES
Byrd has had an odd career. He hit consistently...
The Mets acquired second basemen Dilson Herrera from the Pirates in exchange for Marlon Byrd and John Buck. The Mets will also receive a player to be named later, so for right now I want to focus on Herrera.
The Pirates signed Herrera out Columbia in 2010 for a signing bonus of $220,000. Dilson, 19, stands 5’10″ and weighs 150 pounds. He began his career as a shortstop, but has...
Prohibitively, the addition of Marlon Byrd makes the Pittsburgh Pirates a better baseball team. Had Byrd been on the Pirates’ roster all season, he’d essentially be the third-best hitter on the team.
And, the Pirates may own three or four extra wins if he started 2013 in Pittsburgh with his WAR of 3.5. In contrast, the production received from right field this season from the...
With Tuesday’s trade of Marlon Byrd and John Buck, the Mets got a very intriguing prospect from the Pirates, 19 year-old second base prospect Dilson Herrera.
Herrera is a converted third baseman out of Cartagena, Colombia who is three years in to his professional baseball career, and in his second year playing in the U.S., after spending time in the Venezuelan Summer League in...
Born: July 7, 1980
Drafted: 7th Round, 212th Overall, 1998 (Astros)
How Acquired: Trade from Mets (with Marlon Byrd for Dilson Herrera and PTBNL)
College: Taylorsville HS (Salt Lake City, UT)
Agent: Doug Rogalski
WTM’S PIRATE PLAYER PROFILES
Buck came up through the Astros’ system...
Here is an interesting note from Danny Knobler of CBS Sports:
Orioles active on waiver wire, but teams say the Pirates have been the most aggressive claiming team this month.
— Danny Knobler (@DannyKnoblerCBS) August 29, 2013
The reference to the Orioles follows the news that they won claims on Josh Willingham and Michael Morse. However, the note on the Pirates is the most relevant...
The Pirates upgraded their offense with their trade for outfielder Marlon Byrd on Tuesday and they have their eye on Twins star first baseman Justin Morneau now.
Morneau the former AL MVP would appear to be their next target following the trade with the Mets that netted them Byrd and catcher John Buck as the Pirates continue to address offensive needs as they battle the Cardinals...