Play (Small) Ball: 2009 Red Sox Season Preview

I woke up this morning, adorned my finest Red Sox regalia, and stepped outside on a beautiful Washington, D.C. day, only to find out that my enthusiasm was all for not. Indeed, today was not opening day, which should, for all intents and purposes be a national holiday.However, the rain-delay not only allows me the chance to watch the game live instead of screaming at the pitch-by-pitch on my laptop from the back row of my communications class, but it also gave me another 26 hours to get up a Red Sox season preview.So without further adieu… As excited as Red Sox fans may be to have our boys back in Boston, the fact that Terry Francona doesn't have to adjust the bunk pairings too much with the lack of off-season moves are keeping some awake on the eve of opening day. Before we take a look at the roster, the moves that have been made in the AL East demand some attention.-New York Yankees- The Yankees went out this year and got the two best pitchers and the best bat on the market. This has spurred the traditional "buying your team" cries that townies and national writers alike have defaulted to over the past decade, an argument which informed Red Sox fans know that we can no longer make. But before we throw this team aside based on some notion that the new pin-stripers won’t gel together because of their payroll, we must consider that this is a team that hasn’t won a championship in close to a decade, and they’re not happy about it. They didn’t go out and enlist this type of firepower because they’re not fired up. This season, the beast might actually have heart, and that’s something that should scare us as fans.*As I write this C.C. Sabathia and Mark Teixeria are in the midst of a Baltimore style beatdown. -Tampa Bay Rays- The Rays are bringing back some of the best raw talent in the market, and with the addition of veteran slugger Pat Burrell, their line up gained some of the experience they lacked. Injuries may plague the start of their season, but the experience that they gained with last year’s postseason and the acquisition of Pat "the Bat" may prove troublesome down the road.-Baltimore Orioles- Felix Pie and Rich Hill are nothing to slouch at, as the Orioles are doing their darndest to legitimize that fledgling franchise. Their core group is developing, but I'm not sure that this is the year.-Toronto Blue Jays- Could this be the year that Kevin Millar comes back to haunt us? Probably not.And now down to business.THE GRENADE LAUNCHERSJosh Beckett - Let's take a mulligan on last season. Factoring in his obligatory muscle strain, Beckett will most likely register 16-18, wins with his ability to pitch to ground balls counteracting his sub-par ERA. If he's dependable... he's dependable.Jon Lester – Something tells me that I should keep my big mouth shut, but he has nothing but potential to do great things, and put up great numbers. It’s a good thing the management stuck by him throughout his ordeal, because he has the potential to be a first starter on another staff in another year or two.Daisuke Matsuzaka - It's probably best for my developing condition that I don't watch any of the Dice-man's starts this year. If he walks another hundred batters this season, that might do it for me. Judging from the WBC, spring training may have helped his arm strength, which will hopefully get him through the fifth inning of some of his starts. If Dice-K and Beckett were to ever find a way to reproduce, we would have a guaranteed Cy Young winner on our hands, as well as the third runner-up in the Ugliest Man in the World Contest, behind Popeye Jones and that Rufus guy.Tim Wakefield - Ehhhhhhhh. Ehhhhh. Strikingly similar exclamations to my preseason grunts last year. He'll eat up 180 innings and his strikeouts could even increase, provided he stays healthy and his hip doesn't shatter. The real question revolves around who will catch him, but we'll get to that later.Brad Penny – I loved the off-season pick-up of Brad Penny. He’s got a huge upside for a relatively low risk. Don't look to him to have a 16-4 season a la 2007, but seven wins out of Penny is certainly foreseeable.John Smoltz - I'm not holding out as much hope for Old Man River. His spring training report cards didn't exactly earn him a trip to Friendly's. When a veteran who knows what every crack and pop in his body means is saying that his motions still feel “uncomfortable,” that's a red flag in my book. The spot will be Penny's for the majority of the season, but Smoltz will be good to have down the stretch if he can work out the kinks. He'll figure out a way to muster some mojo should the Sox make it through October.Clay Bucholz - "Big Play" Clay (that's right... Mr. Hillenbrand.. you snooze, you lose) won’t get as much time as he's seen in the past with the veteran acquisitions, which might not be such a bad thing. If he develops more, which he's sure to do, he could be back in Boston and be a significant contributor to a 2010 World Series.THE MEN BEHIND THE MASKJason Varitek – I write this wearing a big red #33 on my back, but I have no faith in his bat speed anymore. It looks like he’s swinging a wet noodle. He’s still one of the best game managers in the league, but the bottom line is that he can’t catch up to a major league fastball anymore. And in a day in age when they’re talking about kids like Stephen Strasburg launching 103 mph fastballs that look like aspirins as they’re whizzing by (granted, by the time that Strasburg is developed, Tek will be glued to a lawn chair in Clearwater Beach), Jason has become obsolete, posing little to no offensive threat. The only hope is that he can do some damage control and stay away from the double-plays this year.George Kottaras - I blinked at some point last season, so I have to admit, I didn't actually see his five at-bats in 2008, but from what I've heard, he's got a little pop in the bat, but he won't hit for average. Reports say that he can block balls in the dirt - a must for any Wakefield receiver - but he apparently couldn't throw out my grandmother if he tried. I'm not ready to write him off just yet because of his power potential, but if Adam Dunn steals second on himduring interleague play... I might be calling for the pink slip. *With the situation as is, and the fact that Luis Exposito is probably two years away from making any significant impact, keep your fingers crossed for a mid-season acquisition, one that hopefully starts with an S- and ends with an -altalamacchia.AROUND THE HORNKevin Youkilis - Relying on him to be our sole source of power again is out of the question, as a significant number of his 29 dingers last year barely cleared the fence (I hate to reference a Bill Simmons podcast as my only source of this information- but I can't find the stat anywhere... if you come across it, please drop a note). However, with his talent for slap singles in clutch situations and his eye for the strike zone, look for his batting average and OBP to remain at the top level, even though his OPS might take a hit.Dustin Pedroia - He better have the stuff to back up that video game commercial (although the second one is much funnier)- but all indications out of Florida are that he does. The things that make him a great baseball player are things that don't vary too much from year-to-year.Jed Lowrie - He's got to put up or pack up. Julio Lugo's injury could not have come at a better time for the young switch-hitter, but his .258 average in 81 games last season left a little something to be desired. He's got potential, but he needs to put up some impressive contact numbers early on in the season if he wants to keep his job.Mike Lowell – There's a big question mark looming over the hot corner given the injuries and his age. He’s been a linchpin in the lineup in the past, but if he is once again unable to slap doubles off the wall on a consistent basis, it’s going to put a lot more pressure on guys like Lowrie, Drew and Ellsbury, who are all far from dependable. On the upside, his bat speed hasn’t seemed to slow tremendously, but don’t look to see him rounding first nearly as much as he used to.THE LAWN MOWERSJason Bay - As soon as he came to Boston, Bay started killing lefties; and he may very well be our best chance to do so again this year. While the front office still hasn't figured out a way to replace Manny's power, Bay has the ability to wear down pitchers, which could be the bread and butter of this year's Red Sox team. However, he’s got to hit, and he’s got to hit in clutch situations. His inability to do so was beyond frustrating during the postseason, and while I understand that the pressure to put up Manny Ramirez type numbers is as stifling as it is unrealistic, Jason Bay’s contact stats will play a huge part in the success of the Red Sox lineup.Jacoby Ellsbury – His speed is undeniable, and he will be nothing short of the go-to-guy now that Crisp is gone. Getting him on base is another story though. If he’s on the bag, he’s got a good chance to put the scoreboard guys to work. But once walks into the batter’s box, he’s all by himself, with nothing but his .336 OBP to cling to.J.D. Drew – Boston sports fans hold grudges like Rose held on to Jack at the end of Titanic. When Nancy J.D. Drew rocked that grand slam in October of 2007, most Bay Staters forgot about the $70 million dollar wringer that Drew and his agent of evil Scott Boras, put us through. But in my mind, he hasn’t paid off his contract quite yet. This year, the Red Sox will rely on his bat almost more than any other player. With the holes in our lineup, this could be an opportunity to use that textbook swing for some real relief. I’ll try to remain optimistic, although I’m preparing for another season of D.L. Drew wallowing in overpaid mediocrity; that is... until he drills another dinger in October and I have to shut my mouth once and for all.Rocco Baldelli – He’s got a huge upside, or so the scouts said right around Y2K. He could have been a contender for rookie of the year back in 2003, but injuries have prevented him from ever developing into the player he was tauted to be. He's got skill, but with the frailty of a several Red Sox starters, a guy who topped off at 156 games six years ago because of “metabolic and/or mitochondrial abnormalities” http://blogs.tampabay.com/rays/2008/03/baldelli.html may not be the best bet for a dependable backup. But let’s try to stay positive. If he comes up big, maybe they’ll give him the Rookie of the Year award.THE “MUSCLE” a.k.a. "FAT"David Ortiz – If Big Papi can turn it around, last season will be considered nothing more than an off year. But the trend seems to be going the other way, and if it continues, 2008 will be seen as the beginning of the end. He is certaintly feeling the pressure to be the Red Sox only true consistent slugger, but Terry Francona needs hits from Ortiz more than anything. Consider this:2004: 175 hits = World Series. 2005: 181 hits = ALDS. 2006: 160 hits = Red Sox miss the playoffs. 2007: 182 hits = World Series. Keep in mind that 2006 was the 54 home run season, but it didn't matter. We need hitters, not necessarily sluggers, especially with the question marks in the outfield and at third. Barring any big midseason moves, the Red Sox are shaping up to be more of a small ball team than in years past.THE BULLDOGSWith the additions of Saito and Masterson, the bullpen was bolstered by some strong sustainability. This is the one area that the Red Sox have most certainly improved, which takes a lot of pressure off of the third, fourth and fifth (and sixth) starters. It’s certainly going to make Dice-K’s three inning outings a bit easier to stomach. Papelbon could lose two or three miles per hour off his fastball with the injury, but he’ll still be one of the best in the biz.THE SICK WARDJonathan Van Every/ Julio Lugo / Mark KotsayDud, dud, and dud.The Red Sox are shaping up to be a very good team, with a few holes that need some sewing. The most glaring gap is the lack of definitive power, but the additions of the veterans with huge upsides and development in the young players could make for a very interesting season. In any case, this is certainly a likeable team that Red Sox fans will be able to rally around all season long. Time will tell, but tomorrow is a fresh start… unless you’re me, in which case you have to wear your “lucky” Red Sox underwear for two days in a row now. It doesn’t get any fresher than that.