Originally posted on Baseball Professor  |  Last updated 1/17/13
Mlb-brewers-astros-may
Marco Estrada had the pitcher’s version of the season teammate Carlos Gomez had in 2012: solid, sporadic first-half play followed by second-half dominance. In 12 starts from July 30 until the end of the season, Estrada went 5-3 with a 2.80 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 8.66 K/9, and 1.91 BB/9 in 70.2 innings. He featured four pitches — four-seamer, curveball, and change-up — at least 17% of the time, and he averaged a 12.4-mph gap between his fastball and change. Interestingly, his change-up checked in at a tick below league average (-0.13 RAA per 100 pitches), but his four-seamer was a well-above average pitch at 0.99 RAA per 100. That rate was good enough for 13th among the 111 pitchers who threw at least 130 innings in 2012. But Estrada’s real strength is his ability to limit walks. Much of that is how often he used his fastball when he was behind in the count (particularly versus RHP). At the risk of sounding like a broken record, any starting pitcher that varies three or more pitches with the frequency Estrada does is OK with me, especially if they have the impressive K:BB ratio Estrada boasts. In his first full season as a starter, I expect big things. At a Glance Strengths: ERA, WHIP, L, K, K/9, BB, BB/9 Neutral: W, QS Weaknesses: IP Player Comparisons Best-case scenario: Chris Sale (CHW) Likely scenario: Lance Lynn (STL), Tim Lincecum (SF), Jake Peavy (CHW) Worst-case scenario: Ivan Nova (NYY) Marco Estrada 2013 Fantasy Projection If only Estrada was a good bet for 180-200 innings, then we’d certainly be looking at a special player in 2013. Unfortunately, he hasn’t shown the ability to go deep into games. Last year Estrada made 23 starts but averaged just 5.2 innings per start, and only a hair more (but still under six) during his aforementioned 12-start stretch of dominance. While his ERA, WHIP, and K/9 are all very good-to-great, it’s important to know how much his physical innings restriction affects his value. According to our ERA value conversion chart, Estrada’s projected 3.51 ERA over 177 innings is worth about the same as a pitcher with a 3.56 ERA over 210 innings, so there isn’t much difference there. The real difference comes in the form of the counting stats, where Estrada’s workload limits him to about 165-175 strikeouts. The higher end of that range could be considered a strength, but it’s not the picture of roto dominance. And if he can’t go deep into games, he hurts his chances at racking up wins. As for the negatives, Estrada is prone to fly balls. I don’t like that when drafting pitchers, especially in Miller Park where hitters get about a 30% boost in homers. Since the most recent new park opened (Target Field in 2010), Brewers pitchers have endured the seventh-highest HR/FB rate in the league (10.7%). That rate accounts for Milwaukee playing half their games in Miller Park as well as half their games on the road, so when looking at a Milwaukee starter’s HR/FB rate, 10.7% is the number you should compare it to. That worry aside, I love Estrada, and he’s definitely someone I would gamble on in any fantasy format.
GET THE YARDBARKER APP:
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45
MORE FROM YARDBARKER

Star players are hurting Houston Rockets

Emmitt Smith: Adrian Peterson only current player who could break rushing record

Coach K gets buzzer-beater win over Virginia for his birthday

Baylor approves new measures to deal with sexual assault

Joe Mauer: Concussions blurred vision, affected hitting

LeBron James says Kevin Love-Celtics trade rumor is false

LIKE WHAT YOU SEE?
GET THE DAILY NEWSLETTER:

Michael Jordan gifts Kobe Bryant full set of Air Jordans

Bethune-Cookman football player killed at party

Former UFC heavyweight Kevin Randleman dead at 44

WATCH: Chelsea scores three goals in less than 20 minutes

Broncos safety Shiloh Keo arrested for DUI

Mountain West admits error, says Boise St. shot was good

Big man Karl-Anthony Towns wins NBA Skills Challenge

MLB commish: Cubs will host All-Star Game in near future

WATCH: Memphis forward recreates Vince Carter's elbow dunk in game

Bruins forward is goal scoring machine after suspension

Michael Jordan gives Kobe Bryant complete set of Air Jordans

Drake has Kentucky edition of custom ‘OVO’ Air Jordan 8s

QUIZ: Name every NBA All-Star Game MVP

Watch rare footage of Stephen Curry from 2001-02 emerges

Check out this custom camouflage Oregon helmet

Ejected John Calipari tweets “they don’t need me and I love it”

Popovich would 'buy ticket' to watch Warriors play

Jamal Murray destroyed South Carolina defender with dunk

WATCH: Lon Kruger gets Oklahoma hoops squad hype for Kansas test

MLB News
Delivered to your inbox
You'll also receive Yardbarker's daily Top 10, featuring the best sports stories from around the web. Customize your newsletter to get articles on your favorite sports and teams. And the best part? It's free!

By clicking "Sign Me Up", you have read and agreed to the Fox Sports Digital Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. You can opt out at any time. For more information, please see our Privacy Policy.
the YARDBARKER app
Get it now!
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45

Ranking the ten best free agent pitcher signings

Who had the best NBA All-Star Game of the last 40 years?

The winners and losers of the 2016 MLB offseason

On Kobe Bryant and taking greatness for granted

Bucks need to choose between wins, development

Fantasy booking WrestleMania 32

Unrestricted free agents each team must consider re-signing

QUIZ: Name the winners of the NBA Slam Dunk Contest

Thank you Daniel Bryan

The timeless greatness of Jaromir Jagr

Today's Best Stuff
For Publishers
Company Info
Help
Follow Yardbarker