Originally posted on Baseball Professor  |  Last updated 1/4/13
Matt Garza was oh-so-good in 2011. It wasn’t the first time he’d had a strikeout rate over 8.00 K/9 or a walk rate under 3.00 K/9, but it was the first time he’d done them both in the same season. Toss in a career-best 46.3 GB% and you have the recipe for a banner season, and that’s exactly what we saw with Garza and his 3.32 ERA. Last year he kept the strikeouts and ground balls up and the walks down, but he couldn’t keep the ball in the park; his 16.7% HR/FB ratio was worse than the 11.3% league average and far worse than his 7.7% mark in 2011. Wrigley Field is about league average in terms of homers, so a little change in luck will probably result in a HR/FB correction for Garza that should help him, but his ERA has comfortably sat in the 3.90s in three of the last four years. At a Glance Strengths: K, K/9, BB Neutral: W, IP, QS, ERA, WHIP Weaknesses: L Player Comparisons Best-case scenario: James Shields (KC) Likely scenario: Ryan Dempster (BOS), Tommy Hanson (OAK), A.J. Burnett (PIT) Worst-case scenario: Homer Bailey (CIN) Matt Garza 2013 Fantasy Projection The Cubs could — yes, I said “could” — have a good lineup. Either way, Garza throws around 200 innings so he’s going to have a lot of decisions in games. That could mean his record ends up at 14-10, 10-14, or anything in between. It appears the improved strikeout and walk rates are the new norms after two years (though one was a half-season), so I feel comfortable projecting repeats in those categories. Like with Derek Holland, for Garza it all comes down to the homers. If he can get those under control, Garza has an outside chance at a repeat of 2011. I’ll admit this projection is conservative because the numbers say that Garza should have an ERA in the 3.60-3.70 range, but I’ve always had a somewhat disappointing view of him. That’s influencing our projection a bit. If you feel comfortable with Garza, then go ahead and draft him accordingly. You could talk me into him being a top-150 player and turning ERA and WHIP into “strengths,” and that means he has more upside than your typical seven-year veteran.
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45

Lee: Celtics will turn heads, have similarities to Warriors

Rex makes players do push-ups in practice after penalty calls

Weeden compares QB situation to 'backing up Derek Jeter'

Matt Hasselbeck went to E.R. with illness on Tuesday

Calipari on 2015-16 Kentucky basketball team: ‘We stink’

Reports: Andrew Luck out against Texans


Rodgers on INT-free season: ‘I don’t think it is’ possible

Tyrann Mathieu: Lions may not know their own offense

NHL awards predictions for the 2015-16 season

WATCH: Maple Leafs use first coach's challenge, win

Ex-Patriot Jeremy Mincey: I'll respect Belichick 'until the day I die'

Cubs dominate Pirates to advance to NLDS

MLB News
Delivered to your inbox
You'll also receive Yardbarker's daily Top 10, featuring the best sports stories from around the web. Customize your newsletter to get articles on your favorite sports and teams. And the best part? It's free!

By clicking "Sign Me Up", you have read and agreed to the Fox Sports Digital Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. You can opt out at any time. For more information, please see our Privacy Policy.
Get it now!
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45

Rex makes players do push-ups in practice after penalty calls

Weeden compares QB situation to 'backing up Derek Jeter'

Pirates fan dresses as Steve Bartman, fails to curse Cubs

LeBron takes in-game selfie with fans in Cincinnati

MLB postseason power rankings

NHL awards predictions for the 2015-16 season

Quiz: MLB pitchers with 100+ career postseason strikeouts

Top storyline for each Week 5 NFL game

Which teams have underperformed or surprised in 2015

The six NFL players most likely to be traded by the deadline

Today's Best Stuff
For Publishers
Company Info
Follow Yardbarker