Originally posted on Baseball Professor  |  Last updated 1/2/13
Carlos Quentin is actually a very consistent player. He almost always puts up the same numbers on a per-game basis, and he’s always due to miss some time. He’s certainly very flawed, but in 2009 and 2010 those flaws weren’t major enough to keep him from earning a spot on fantasy rosters across the net — he ranked inside the top 210 in both seasons. Unless you think Chase Headley is a perennial 30-homer monster now, Quentin is the best power option the Padres have, and that alone qualifies him to be the team’s cleanup hitter. It’s not the best lineup spot in baseball, but it’s all that someone of Quentin’s caliber — and injury history — could realistically ask for. And he isn’t even a batting average killer. I mean, it’s not very good, but you could definitely do worse with a late-round player who has 25-homer, 80-RBI potential. At a Glance Strengths: HR, OBP, SLG, OPS Neutral: RBI, BA, K Weaknesses: R, SB Player Comparisons Best-case scenario: Alfonso Soriano (CHC) with a better OBP Likely scenario: Ryan Ludwick (CIN), Dayan Viciedo (CHW), Garrett Jones (PIT) Worst-case scenario: Raul Ibanez (SEA) Carlos Quentin 2013 Fantasy Projection Quentin is slow and there’s not much behind him in San Diego’s lineup, so his runs and steals are going to be embarrassingly low. If you can get by that, though, you’re looking at a pretty useful player. Most will pass on Quentin, probably feeling like they’ve been wronged by him at some point since his breakout 2008 season, but he has more upside than your typical 30-year-old, injury-prone outfielder. According to our xBA formula, Quentin should have hit .274 last year. Even if you don’t believe in those “expected performance” stats, it should be noted that he was only “expected” to bat .241 in 2010 and .221 in 2011, so his expected performance both years was lower than his expected performance last year and his actual performance both years was lower than his actual performance last year. Still following? What I’m getting at is Quentin isn’t the BA killer that most might label him. Toss in above average performance in anything closely resembling a power category, especially on a per-game basis, and you have the makings of a very nice, affordable third outfielder (or even better a nice, affordable bench outfielder if you’re lucky enough to have three, four, or five better options). And are you surprised to hear that Quentin has a career .350 OBP, which last year was .374? Yup, he gets a boost in those formats, too.
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