Originally written on Baseball Professor  |  Last updated 2/18/12
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Jay Bruce does something that’s rare these days and that’s hit home runs. That’s about all he does because he won’t contribute enough in steals to make a difference and his batting average will be mediocre thanks to his swinging strike rate (career 12.2%). His xBA has been consistently in the .260 range, which is what you should expect and that will hurt his value some. Still, the power is legit and if you plan ahead and compensate for the batting average he can be plenty valuable in fantasy.

Best case scenario: Hits 35-40 home runs
Similar players: Mike Stanton (MIA), Mike Morse (WAS), Lance Berkman (STL)
Worst case scenario: Nick Swisher (NYY)

Strengths

Power, home/road splits. Not only does Bruce have near-elite power, but he’ll only be 25 years old in April. I also like that his power is pretty consistent whether he’s at home or on the road (.226 home ISO/.209 road ISO).

Weaknesses

Batting average, streaky. While Bruce has a very good walk rate (career 9.6 BB%), he swings (and misses) at too many pitches to keep a consistent batting average. His contact rate (career 74.0%) is below the league average (~80.0%).

ADP Report (40.5)

While he’s more of a three-category contributor (R, HR, RBI), Bruce still provides plenty of value in fantasy. He also has a lot of upside given his age and if he can improve on his already good power he will be a great value in the late fourth/early fifth round.

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