Originally written on Baseball Professor  |  Last updated 2/26/13
Any look at Jason Kipnis‘ 2012 season would be incomplete without mentioning how split his first- and second-half production was. After batting .277 with 53 R, 11 HR, 49 RBI, and 20 SB in the first half (370 PA), he slumped all the way to a .233 average with 33 R, 3 HR, 27 RBI, and 11 SB in the second half (302 PA).What happened?I’ve had many discussions surrounding Kipnis over the past few weeks, and most of the people I talk to think we overvalue him. “He was terrible in the second half. Pitchers finally started figuring him out!” OK, I’m sure that’s true to a degree. “He stole 31 bases last year, 20 of which came before the All-Star Break. He’d never done anything like that in the minors!” Yes, that’s also true.But did you know Kipnis actually posted a higher walk rate in the second half last year, 11.3% to 8.9%, and his K:BB ratio improved as well, down to 1.54 from 1.72? His .233 average after the break wasn’t the result of bad contact — his 21.9% line drive rate and 7.0% infield fly rate were both inferior to his first-half marks but point to a lot of bad luck. And to those out there who point to how Kipnis never displayed that kind of speed in the minors, how about the fact that he also displayed a little more power in the minors? You don’t think a few extra homers might help offset the a potential drop in stolen base output?In spite of his second-half slide, I love Kipnis in 2013.At a GlanceStrengths: SB, net SBNeutral: R, HR, RBI, BA, OBP, SLG, OPSWeaknesses: nonePlayer ComparisonsBest-case scenario: Dustin Pedroia (BOS)Likely scenario: Ben Zobrist (TB), Brandon Phillips (CIN), Starlin Castro (CHC),Worst-case scenario: Dustin Ackley (SEA)Jason Kipnis 2013 Fantasy ProjectionThe intro does a pretty good job of explaining why we project the kind of season we do from Kipnis. He hits a lot of line drives, keep the infield flies to a minimum, and has a solid K:BB ratio. That should yield a pretty good average. Honestly, I’m a little worried we didn’t go bullish enough with Kipnis’ projected .271 BA. I think a .285 season is almost just as likely, and I’d be shocked if he turns in another sub-.265 season.While he’s definitely not a fly ball hitter, I do think we could see him approach 20 homers this year. Cleveland’s lineup changes have moved Kipnis to third in the order, and that means we should be adding a lot more RBI to the 71 we project here. That probably means he attempts a couple fewer steals than we project, but I think low-20s in steals is a pretty good estimate.Overall, Kipnis could deliver top-50 production. With a current ADP of 64.1 you’re not getting a great value by drafting Kipnis, but you are ensuring you get a potential five-category producer at second base. After Kipnis, Brandon Phillips, and Ben Zobrist, who are all getting drafted in the sixth, seventh, or eighth rounds on average, you have to hope you get lucky and land Martin Prado or be faced with any of a number of options that could spell category death (Rickie Weeks‘ BA, Dan Uggla‘s BA, Jose Altuve‘s HR/RBI).
GET THE YARDBARKER APP:
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45
MORE FROM YARDBARKER

Carlos Boozer hoping roster spot opens on playoff team

Starting EJ Manuel not a bad idea for Bills’ third preseason game

Tim Beckman fired by Illinois amid mistreatment allegations

Chip Kelly reveals thought process behind Bradford trade

Charles Barkley on ex-agent: ‘I’d blow his damn brains out’

Bryce Harper doesn’t seem to care if Nationals make playoffs

LIKE WHAT YOU SEE?
GET THE DAILY NEWSLETTER:

Could the Spurs backups make playoffs in the east?

Josh Howard reportedly attempting NBA comeback

Reggie Wayne feels like a rookie with the Patriots

Eric Davis: Jim Harbaugh coddled 49ers off the field

Scherzer gave pricey gifts to catchers on no-hitter, one-hitter

Seattle Mariners fire general manager Jack Zduriencik

Spieth: Could new irons be reason for missed cut at Barclays?

The Opening Drive: What happened to all the great Michigan tailbacks?

The 1980s Lakers represent the NBA’s ultimate creation story

The Orioles’ frustrating season

Andy Reid on calling perfect play: 'That’s like a good cheeseburger'

Five greatest NBA players of all-time

Finding signs of life for the Boston Red Sox

Jerry Rice: Adrian Peterson still number one pick in fantasy

Filling the MLB playoff picture: Royals rolling

10 NFL players set for down seasons in 2015

Jets QB Petty draws ire from New Yorkers over taste in pizza

Several Celtics ‘NBA 2K16’ ratings leaked

Has the NFL suspended too many players?

MLB News
Delivered to your inbox
You'll also receive Yardbarker's daily Top 10, featuring the best sports stories from around the web. Customize your newsletter to get articles on your favorite sports and teams. And the best part? It's free!

By clicking "Sign Me Up", you have read and agreed to the Fox Sports Digital Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. You can opt out at any time. For more information, please see our Privacy Policy.
the YARDBARKER app
Get it now!
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45

The Opening Drive: What happened to all the great Michigan tailbacks?

The 1980s Lakers represent the NBA’s ultimate creation story

The Orioles’ frustrating season

Five greatest NBA players of all-time

Finding signs of life for the Red Sox

10 NFL players set for down seasons in 2015

Why NFL preseason games matter

August's winners and losers in sports

How the Chicago Cubs are swinging

Report: Barry Bonds loses collusion case

Today's Best Stuff
For Publishers
Company Info
Help
Follow Yardbarker