Originally written on Baseball Professor  |  Last updated 2/12/13
Mlb_may_17_9f10
Brandon Phillips has registered at least 587 plate appearances in each of his seven full season, all with Cincinnati. In those seven years he’s batted over .276 just three times. Two of those times have come in the last two years.In 2007 Phillips was a 30/30 player. In 2008 and 2009 he was a 20/20 player. In the last three seasons he’s failed to reach 20 homers or 20 steals even once. While Phillips is clearly declining — he’ll be 32 this June — he’s actually reinvented himself over these last two seasons and become a more balanced hitter.His strikeout rate has sat around 12.5% over the last three seasons after hovering around 15.5% in his first three, and his line drive rates in 2011 and 2012 (19.8% and 20.6%, respectively) were the two best of his career. Better strikeout rates and higher line drives generally yield better batting averages, and Phillips’ .294 and .290 xBAs in ’11 and ’12 only serve to reinforce this logic.It should be noted that Phillips had a career high 40.6% O-Swing rate last year (percentage of pitches swung at outside the strike zone), a career high, which led to a drop in his walk rate and likely contributed to his 9.2% infield fly rate (worst since 2008).At a GlanceStrengths: RNeutral: HR, RBI, SB, BA, OBP, SLG, OPSWeaknesses: nonePlayer ComparisonsBest-case scenario: Dustin Pedroia (BOS)Likely scenario: Ben Zobrist (TB), Jayson Werth (WAS), Aaron Hill (ARI)Worst-case scenario: Torii Hunter (DET)Brandon Phillips 2013 Fantasy ProjectionOver the last five years Phillips has seen his homer total slowly decline from 21 to 20 to three straight years of exactly 18. We figure he falls a homer shy of making it four straight seasons.Regardless, Phillips will likely give you around 30-35 homers and steals combined with a .280-.290 average. Shin-Soo Choo was a huge addition for the Reds, and his on-base skills will benefit Phillips in the two-hole. When our 2013 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide comes out on March 1, expect to see Phillips with more than 67 projected RBI as a result.Phillips’ ADP right now is 74.0, which seems pretty much spot on given his production over the last few years. Truth be told, once we up his RBI total that’s probably right where he’ll fall in our pre-draft rankings.He’s not a great OBP guy, really just a hair better than league average, but he could potentially finish with an OBP in the .340-.350 range if he restrains himself on those balls outside the zone and draws a few extra walks. Overall, though, second base drops off pretty quickly, and Phillips is a safe guy to target in all formats.
GET THE YARDBARKER APP:
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45
MORE FROM YARDBARKER

Eli Manning happy Tom Brady will play NFL season opener

Phil Kessel has shed 13 pounds this summer

Cam Newton addresses ‘gang’ photo on Instagram

Steelers defense is younger and faster but not better

Duke basketball to visit White House next Tuesday

Report: Cowboys have interest in Broncos RB Montee Ball

LIKE WHAT YOU SEE?
GET THE DAILY NEWSLETTER:

NFL owners to discuss changing Goodell's disciplinary role

Report: Eagles trade Matt Barkley to Arizona Cardinals

Bill Belichick on having Tom Brady back: ‘He never left’

Mendoza replaces Schilling on 'Sunday Night Baseball'

Report: LeBron expanding program to help adults get GEDs

Here's Johnny 2.0

Judge Sarah Thomas as an NFL official, not a female NFL official

Simona Halep popular with fans who want to kiss her

Patriots planned on raising a "Brady banner on opening night

Braves and Phillies sucking at the same time is rare

Montana St. linebacker delivers bone crushing hit in opener

Despite loss, all eyes still on Jim Harbaugh, Wolverines

Kirk Cousins discusses what it’s like to be called ‘Kurt’

Playoffs or not, Bryce Harper is the NL MVP

Donald Sterling’s wife Shelly seeking alimony

Chicago Bears and Jay Cutler: A love/hate relationship

Likely scenarios for current MLB front-office vacancies

Seven takeaways from Eagles final preseason game

Robert Griffin III and a dream deferred

MLB News
Delivered to your inbox
You'll also receive Yardbarker's daily Top 10, featuring the best sports stories from around the web. Customize your newsletter to get articles on your favorite sports and teams. And the best part? It's free!

By clicking "Sign Me Up", you have read and agreed to the Fox Sports Digital Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. You can opt out at any time. For more information, please see our Privacy Policy.
the YARDBARKER app
Get it now!
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45

Robert Griffin III and a dream deferred

Best, worst surprises of NFL preseason

The Gospel Of Harbaugh prepares for its ultimate test of faith

Meet the Utah Utes, the pluckiest program in college football

Iman Shumpert will name daughter Iman Shumpert Jr.

Dallas company celebrates Romo with DirecTV 'crownies'

Top 10 storylines for Week 4 of the NFL preseason

Matt Williams is still hopelessly married to the idea of the closer’s role

Five unique CFB games to watch this weekend

Be careful what you wish for, Jay Gruden

Today's Best Stuff
For Publishers
Company Info
Help
Follow Yardbarker