Joe Nathan has always been one of my favorite baseball players. I think it has something to do with the fact that he didn’t establish himself until he was in his late twenties. For some reason, I always seem to like players who don’t follow the conventional top prospect route to becoming a solid major league player. Go figure. A converted shortstop a la Trevor Hoffman, Nathan busted into the major leagues as a starting pitcher, taking the roster spot of an injured outfielder named Barry Bonds in 1999. After a successful rookie campaign, Nathan began having shoulder problems in 2000 and had arthroscopic shoulder surgery at season’s end. The surgery wasn’t just a minor bump in the road, as Nathan lost arm strength and wasn’t the same for a year and a half. Nathan posted a 7.29 era in 108.2 innings between AA and AAA in 2001 and a 5.60 mark in 2002 with AAA. He came to Spring Training in 2003 at a crossroads in his career and eventually made the team as a reliever. Armed once again with his 95 mph fastball and devastating slider, Nathan did not disappoint and established himself as one of the best setup relievers in baseball with an MLB leading 12 wins out of the bullpen. Nathan was traded to the Twins in the offseason and quickly became one of the best closers in baseball in 2004, with a 1.62 ERA, 44 saves and an 11.07 k/9 ratio. Nathan continued on a run of sustained dominance until 2010, when he missed the entire season due to Tommy John surgery. While he was ineffective at the outset of the 2011 season, Nathan returned to form after a month on the disabled list, posting a 3.38 ERA from late June until the end of the season. Despite my hope that he would finish his career with the Twins, Nathan signed a two-year deal with the Rangers about a week ago to become their closer.
Nathan’s contract results in the Rangers having a surefire, proven closer at the back end of their bullpen. However, there are several questions that arose as a result of his signing. The first was answered when the Rangers announced that incumbent closer Neftali Feliz would be transitioning to the starting rotation, a move that some people feel is coming a year too late. The next question is now that Feliz becoming a starter, what happens to C.J. Wilson? With Feliz in the rotation, the Rangers currently have five starters in Colby Lewis, Matt Harrison, Derek Holland, Alexi Ogando and Feliz. Do the Rangers re-sign Wilson and move Ogando back to the bullpen? What about Scott Feldman, who after missing most of the regular season was an effective reliever for much of the playoffs? The Rangers’ current surplus of pitching options represents a far cry from the majority of the last decade, when Texas was a team known for offensive prowess and a lack of quality arms.
C.J. Wilson is widely regarded as the best pitcher on the free agent market. After several years as a reliever, Wilson moved to the rotation two years ago and flourished. This past season Wilson went 16-7 with a 2.94 ERA and 206 strikeouts in 223.1 innings. In addition, he cut his BB/9 rate from 4.10 to 2.98 and his K/9 rate jumped from 7.50 to 8.30. Wilson, who visited the Marlins on Monday, is said to be looking for a payday of over $100 million for six years. In other words, he wants to be paid like a number 1 starter. Despite the fact that Wilson spent this past season as the Rangers’ ace, he is widely viewed as a number 2 starter on a championship team due to erratic fastball command. Wilson will probably get a large contract somewhere, but should the Rangers give it to him? After failing to re-sign their ace last offseason, Texas decided to upgrade other areas of the team and signed Adrian Beltre to a big contract. That seemed to work out well, as the Rangers repeated as American League champions this season. Texas just signed a large television rights deal that ensures a large revenue stream for the next twenty years, and therefore can probably afford to give Wilson his money. Although Texas survived this past season after letting their ace walk, and would probably be competitive next season without Wilson, my vote would be for them to re-sign him and move Alexi Ogando back to the bullpen.
Ogando is another one of those Rangers pitchers that made a successful conversion from reliever to starter. Ogando has an interesting history, as he was denied entry into the U.S. from 2005 until Spring Training 2010 due to his involvement in a human trafficking ring. Once he was allowed stateside, Ogando made quick work of the minor leagues and ended the season with a 4-1 record and a sparkling 1.30 ERA in 41.2 innings. Ogando was stretched out during Spring Training and after an injury to Tommy Hunter, he opened the season at the back of the Rangers’ rotation. Through his first twelve starts, Ogando was 7-0 with a 2.10 ERA and a WHIP under .90. Those numbers don’t tell the full story though, because he had allowed a BABIP of only .210. Regression was knocking on the door. On June 14th, the Yankees handed Ogando his first loss of the season after pounding him for six runs in just 1.2 innings. The rest of Ogando’s season consisted of 19 games (17 starts) and an ERA of 4.83. His BABIP against from June 14th until the end of the season was .314. While Ogando finished the season with a very respectable 3.51 ERA in 169 innings, it is time for him to go back to the bullpen. According to PITCHf/x, Ogando only threw his changeup 4.3% of the time this season, effectively making him a two-pitch pitcher. The old adage is that starters need at least three pitches to be successful. Ogando’s wFB/C and wSL/C both ranked among the top ten among American League starters last year. However, now that he has spent a full season in the rotation, Ogando won’t be fooling anyone with his two-pitch combination next season. A move back to the bullpen would allow his dominant fastball/slider combination to play up in the late innings. Ron Washington seemed to think along those lines as well, after choosing to keep Ogando in the bullpen throughout the entirety of the playoffs.
Scott Feldman is the forgotten starter on the Rangers’ pitching staff. Yet another converted reliever, Feldman won 17 games with a 4.08 ERA in 2009. At the beginning of the 2010 season, he signed a two-year extension through 2012, in which he is guaranteed $13.925 million. The extension was questionable, based on the fact that Feldman’s 5.3 k/9 and 3.08 bb/9 rates from 2009 indicated that he would not be able to sustain his previous level of success. 2010 proved Feldman’s skeptics correct – his strikeout rate worsened and he was eventually banished to the bullpen. Feldman missed the majority of 2011 with knee problems and was used sparingly out of the bullpen during the final months of the regular season. Feldman rebuilt some of his stock during the playoffs, after playing a valuable role as a long man out of the bullpen. The problem with Feldman being a reliever next season is his $6.5 million salary. $6.5 million is a lot of money for a setup man, let alone a middle reliever. Since the Rangers have Mike Adams and Koji Uehara, Feldman would probably be towards the bottom of the depth chart. The problem with sticking Feldman in the rotation is his that his lack ability to strike hitters out means he could have a reprise of his 2010 season. Texas would probably be best served seeing what they could get in return for Feldman on the trade market. Having to pay half his salary and taking a risk on a low level prospect might be the best course of action for Texas. If the Rangers can’t find any suitors, Feldman is a solid 6th starter option but he will probably start the season as the most expensive long reliever in baseball.
I would be remiss to not mention Neftali Feliz in all of this. Feliz, who spent the past two seasons as the Rangers’ closer, will be in the rotation this season. It has been a long time coming – Feliz was stretched out as a starter last spring before eventually returning to the role in which he garnered the 2010 American Rookie of the Year. Throughout the minors, Feliz showed an ability to hold his fastball velocity deep into games. His slider is graded as plus, while his changeup has the potential to end up as an average pitch. The key to success for Feliz will be consistency of his off-speed pitches. Feliz became rather fastball heavy out of the bullpen, because his fastball was so hard to hit. If his changeup continues to develop and his slider stays sharp, there is no reason Feliz can’t develop into an ace. Last spring he also added a cutter, which he used sparingly throughout 2011. With all the potential he possesses, Feliz moving to the rotation is one of the biggest stories of the offseason and is something worth monitoring throughout the entire 2012 season.
As the rest of the offseason unfolds, we will find out what Texas plans to do with its pitching staff next season. They already have six solid starting pitching options, and will have seven if C.J. Wilson makes a triumphant return. It will be interesting to see how much money Wilson gets because there seem to be mixed opinions around the league in regard to his worth. It wouldn’t be surprising if he returns to Texas, since he established himself there and they seem to value him pretty highly. Aside from Scott Feldman and Alexi Ogando, Derek Holland and Matt Harrison are also both somewhat of a question mark entering 2012. For both pitchers, it was their first full season in the starting rotation. While they both had good years, it remains to be seen if they will take a step backward. While there are several unanswered questions on Texas’ pitching staff going into 2012, if they can get the same kind of production as last season they might just find themselves with their third consecutive American League pennant.
-Cohen
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