Revelation and Speculation

Bay Play Jason Bay will be roaming the vast expanse known as left field at Citi Field for the next four seasons. While I am not particularly enamored with such a development, it should be good for the Mets for a couple of seasons. My biggest gripe is that the Mets paid a lot of money over too many years to a 31-year-old who is an average defender (a little better than most think), not fleet of foot and strikes out way too much. The Bay signing also leaves little doubt that the Wilpons will cut Carlos Beltran adrift at the end of the 2011 season, or perhaps do the smart thing and trade him on or before July 31, 2011. Fernando Martinez and Kirk Niewenhuis will get their shots at that time. My other concern with the Bay deal is a preponderance of right-handed hitters (Bay, Wright, Francoeur and behind the dish) and switch-hitters (Beltran, Reyes and Castillo), with only one pure left-handed bat (Murphy). If Manuel wants to keep the opposition on their toes by keeping speed at the top of the lineup and also alternate righties and lefties--Reyes, Castillo, Wright, Beltran, Bay, Murphy and Francoeur--is likely the way it will look. And without much variation. The other thing the Bay Play solidifies is Angel Pagan's critical role on the 2010 Mets. Pagan should start at least three games a week--one at each position. A smart manager acknowledging the internal damage to Beltran's knee would never let him play a day game following night, in bad weather or on a very wet outfield. Both Francoeur and Bay are susceptible to certain right-handed hurlers and Pagan should spell each of them once a week to keep him sharp, the others rested and give the Mets a little edge in the match-ups. No doubt, he will be a pinch-hitter, pinch-runner and play a couple of defensive innings in LF quite frequently. If Pagan is used creatively and not allowed to rot away on the bench, he will be the Most Valuable Sub in the league. The goal is at least 350 at-bats. No Molina Please Alternating the catching duties between Henry Blanco and Omir Santos with both Chris Coste and Josh Thole in reserve is just fine. Spend the bucks on pitching. An argument can even be made to carry Coste as a third receiver and right-handed platoon with Murphy at 1B. This gives the Mets some terrific depth. Even better, should Thole continue to excel and Santos have a decent season, the Mets can dangle Santos in July or at the end of the season. Using Blanco, Santos and Coste effectively can deliver anything and everything Molina can and then some, without clogging up the base paths. Bengie may well be the slowest man in baseball since Ernie Lombardi. Bench Press In today's game, the bench (and the farm system) DOES matter. High salaries appear to make managers play the higher priced talent as regulars and diminish the role player to bench jockey. The masterful Stengel/Hodges platooning, I so often refer to, is but a distant memory. The Mets may perhaps field a true platoon at 1B with Murphy paired with Coste, Evans, Darko, Garciaparra or even Tatis. (The first three are the most likely.) Catching will be more of a potpourri from three right-handed hitters and based more on who's pitching for both teams. As mentioned above, this leaves the Angel Pagan (a switch-hitting pure outfielder) as the key bench player, followed by Alex Cora (a lefty swinging pure infielder). If the Mets go with a trio of backstops (Blanco/Santos/Coste) this leaves only one slot available to fill. If they go with two catchers and sign a Darko or Garciaparra or Tatis, they will have a power right-handed bat. Presumably, the role should be another switch-hitter who can play both INF and OF. The ubiquitous and totally versatile utility man is certainly in vogue for the Mets, rather than a one-dimensional Jack Cust-type. There does not appear to be the switch-hitting character out there. However, what about Smithtown boy Frank Catalanotto? Frank plays everywhere decently, has a good contact, left-handed bat and is a savvy veteran. Sure he's a little long-in-the-tooth, but ending his career playing in his hometown is a nice way to go out and he will want to distinguish himself. The question is whether the Mets want to sacrifice power for versatility. If Darko or Garciaparra are at 1B, power may not be necessary. Pen-ultimate? Can't argue with what Omar/Jeff have put together for the 2010 bullpen. The key roles there will be setup man, long man and swing man. With K-Rod a lock for closer and Perpetual Pedro and Sean Green (unless they get Chad Bradford back) as the situational lefty and righty, respectively, there are a number of intriguing choices for Manuel and Warthen to ponder. There also appears to be quite a bit of depth reaching all the way down to AAA for the first time in memory. Closer: Frankie Rodriguez 8th Inning setup man: Kelvim Escobar 7th Inning go-to-guy: Ryota Igarashi Situational lefty: Pedro Feliciano Situational righty: Sean Green Swing arms: Brian Stokes and/or Bobby Parnell Long lefty: Pat Misch Long righty: Nelson Figueroa If the Mets go with three southpaws in the starting rotation (Santana/Perez/Niese), look for Misch to open the season in Buffalo as a starter, along with Fernando Nieve, Toby Stoner and Dillon Gee. The Buffalo pen should feature lefties Derrick Ellison and Arturo Lopez, plus righties Elmer Dessens, RA Dickey, Clint Everts, Jack Egbert, Eddie Kunz and perhaps Parnell (if he is not dealt and Escobar & Igarashi each have a nice spring training). Dickey and Parnell could also be candidates for the Bison rotation. Would you make Deal A? Mike Pelfrey, Bobby Parnell (or Fernando Martinez) and Luis Castillo to the Cubs for Carlos Zambrano? The Cubs would need to replace Zambrano in the rotation with a pitcher who can deliver 200 innings. Pelfrey throws a heavy ball and is generally considered a ground ball pitcher. He appears to be durable. Parnell has a lot of upside. Still a prospect with a full season of experience and a 98 MPH fastball. He slots nicely into Piniella's pen. Castillo provides much of what the Cubs are looking for--a steady hand at 2B, who can put the ball in play from both sides of the plate and get on base for Lee, Ramirez, and Soriano. The Cubs problem is too much right-handed hitting and an aging roster. Fukidome is at best a platoon right-fielder. And who is going to play CF? This is why F-Mart could be in the mix. If so, the Cubs would have to put a prospect into the mix. Mets rotation candidates: L - Santana R - Zambrano L - Perez R - Maine L - Niese R - Nieve Cubs rotation candidates: L - Lilly R - Dempster R - Wells L - Gorzelanny R - Pelfrey R - Silva Or would you make Deal B? Mike Pelfrey, Bobby Parnell (or Jon Niese) and Luis Castillo to the Reds for Bronson Arroyo and Brandon Phillips? The Reds would be looking for a big young arm to replace Arroyo at a lesser price. Between Pelfrey and Parnell, they fill a couple of needs at a far lower cost. Phillips is a defense, speed and power upgrade, but he adds another big right-handed bat to the Mets lineup, which they do not necessarily require. Castillo would certainly replace Phillips in the Reds lineup, but the Mets would likely have to pay $4-5 million to satisfy the contract for the low payroll Reds. Substituting Niese for Parnell might mitigate the paydown and deliver a "B" prospect to the Mets. Or, how about Pelfrey, Niese, Castillo and a few mil for Arroyo, Phillips and Matt Maloney or Homer Bailey? Mets rotation candidates: L - Santana R - Arroyo L - Perez R - Maine L - Niese R - Nieve Reds rotation candidates: R - Harang R - Volquez L - Maloney R - Pelfrey R - Cueto R - Bailey Trade Proposal Follow-Up Just because I'm suggesting moving Pelfrey and Parnell does not mean I do not want them, like them or believe they are not still very good prospects and valuable pieces. Clearly, John Maine does not have Pelfrey's value due to injuries and age. Parnell has a tremendous fast ball and good delivery, which should keep him less prone to injury than other fireballers. For the Mets, the problem is where does Parnell slot? For a team that once developed and distributed an amazing array of closers (McGraw, Lockwood, Reardon, Aguilera, Orosco, McDowell, Myers, Isringhausen and Heath Bell), it sure seems the Mets like to go out and acquire them for the past 20 years (Franco, Benitez, Looper, Wagner and Rodriquez). Right now, Bobby Parnell, who is a step beyond most prospects, should have some very good upside to another ballclub be it as a closer, setup man or perhaps starter. There are certainly other prospects and names that can be thrown in the mix, but only as throw-ins. At this particular point in time, the guys mentioned above (Pelfrey, Parnell, Niese and F-Mart) are the only meaningful names to other organizations. In the unlikely (but not out-of-the-question) event that Zambrano could be acquired, the Mets would likely go after Orlando Hudson to man the second sack. However, Felipe Lopez could be a cheaper, younger (2.5 years and 9 seasons in The Show as opposed to 8 for the O-Dog) and more versatile option (has played SS, 3B and OF in addition to 2B). Lopez and Hudson, both switch-hitters, have remarkably similar offensive stats and neither is the base-running threat they once appeared to be. About Dave: Dave Mills, born in Kew Gardens, Queens, the day after Willie Mays' circus catch in the 1954 World Series, is a devout Met fan since 1962. The first game he attended was Mets v. Reds at the Polo Grounds on September 14, 1962. With the game tied 9-9 in the 9th, Choo Choo ("Bub") Coleman hit a game-winning walkoff HR down the rightfield line on to the tin roof. The sound is indelibly etched in his memory! Dave lives on Oahu, where he markets and writes about golf. His company, HawaiiGolfDeals.com is the leading deliverer of golfers to the Aloha State. His take on Golf in Australia is in the Oct/Nov issue of Fairways & Greens Magazine.