Series Preview: Chicago Cubs (57-49) v Colorado Rockies (59-49)

It’s been awhile since this team saw the Rockies - they split a brief 2 game set in April (the Cubs home opener). The Cubs won the home opener 4-0 on a dazzling performance from Lilly, in which he took a no-hitter into the 7th inning. The second game was the bizarre game where Harden only lasted three innings, and of the 9 outs he recorded 8 were by strikeout and the other was caused by a runner being thrown out trying to stretch a double into a triple. It was also the start that sparked speculation that he was tipping his pitches or something, as Colorado was hitting him hard and laying off his changeup. Luckily the recently homer-prone Harden is not pitching in this series at Coors Field. Speaking of Coors Field, it’s a nice place! I went there in July for a Jimenez v Haren matchup. The stadium was nice, but what was especially great were the brewpubs surrounding it. We hit up Breckenridge before the game and the food was as good as the beer. I also managed to score some New Belgium Sunshine Wheat beer with dinner tonight, which was a great find (it’s tough to find more than Fat Tire out here). Delicious! Colorado has been playing very well this year, and is currently a game out in the wild card standings. Surprisingly, the main strength of the team this year has been starting pitching. Rockies starters are 6th in the NL with a 3.89 FIP, led by fireballing right-hander Ubaldo Jimenez. Offensively, they have a core of contibuters consisting of defensive butcher Brad Hawpe (.394 wOBA), standout rookie Seth Smith (.385 wOBA), a bounced-back Troy Tulowitzki (.370 wOBA), and Todd Helton (.384 wOBA), who seems to have rediscovered his power stroke this year (.499 slg). Defensively, they’re not very good (-16.9 team UZR) - only Seth Smith’s 7.4 UZR is particularly noteworthy. CF Dexter Fowler (-11.3 UZR) and RF Hawpe (-11.7 UZR) have been especially awful, but I wonder how the altitude and size of Coors affects defensive numbers there. Apparently it’s not bothering Smith though. They’re not a *particulary* good home team, at 27-21, but you have to figure that Coors is unique enough that they have a significant home-field advantage there. Players to watch I had no idea that Smith was this good until I looked at the numbers for my NL RoY post. Former Rookie of the Year Geovany Soto returns to the Cubs in this series. He hit 2 HR in his 3-game rehab, so hopefully there won’t be a long adjustment period for him. Koyie Hill, for one, is likely happy he’s back. Injuries Team ‘ace’ Jeff Francis had offseason shoulder surgery and will miss the entire season. Former closer Manny Corpas is on the DL with bone chips in his elbow. Ted Lilly threw a bullpen yesterday and is hoping to return as soon as next week, but it sounds like the org is going to be cautious with him. If Gorzelanny continues to pitch like he did in his first start that would certainly make things less dire. Blanco went on the DL to clear space for (ugh) Aaron Miles, and Reed Johnson will still be out for a few more weeks with his broken foot. Pitching matchups Friday Carlos Zambrano, RHP (3.83,3.95) v Ubaldo Jimenez, RHP (3.27,3.82), 8:10 PM CT Z had some back issues in his last start in Florida - hopefully they will have cleared up for this start. Jimenez has the fastest fastball among all qualifying starters, averaging 95.9 mph on the pitch. It’s a decent one too, unlike Zumaya’s 100mph heater; Fangraphs has its value pegged at 0.45 runs above average per 100 fastballs. He’s a great pitcher for Coors field, he strikes batters out with that fastball while keeping the ball in the park (0.5 HR/9 last year and this year). He’s had issues with control in the past, but has managed to knock his BB/9 by nearly a run and a half this season to 3.38. The matchup between the fastball-hitting Soriano and Jimenez, who throws FBs 66% of the time, should be fun to watch. Saturday Ryan Dempster, RHP (4.32,3.90) v Jason Marquis, RHP (3.99,4.52), 7:10 PM CT Who would have thought that Marquis would go to Coors, see his K/9 rate drop, and still somehow post a sub-3.5 ERA and become the league leader in wins? He’s has lowered his walk rate, but the key is groundballs. His GB/FB rate sits at 2.09, right in line with his first season with the Cardinals. This time though he’s allowing less home runs (0.62 HR/9). His xFIP for the season is 4.35, which isn’t too shabby either (esp compared to last year’s 5.05). Dempster was terrible in his first start back from the DL, but acquitted himself fairly well in his last start. He shut out the Marlins for 6 innings, striking out 4 but walking 4. He’s had more trouble with his control and HR suppression this year, but it’s probably closer to his true talent level than last year’s career year. He’s a useful pitcher. Sunday Randy Wells, RHP (3.74,4.12) v Jason Hammell, RHP (3.80,4.37), 2:10 PM CT Speaking of useful pitchers, we should see a great matchup of RoY candidates Wells and Smith in this game. Wells pounds the strike zone - he’s only allowed 2.02 BB/9 this season and has only walked more than 2 batters in a game once this season. He’s developed a great slider and has put it to good use, as it’s been worth 3.44 runs/100 pitches over the average slider. Hammell pitched in three unremarkable seasons for the Rays, posting 5+ FIPs before coming to the Rockies. Something must have changed, as he cut his walk rate in half (4.02 in 2008, 2.06 in 2009). Looking at Fangraphs’ pitch classifiers (I know, they’re not very accurate…) it looks like the big difference has been his curveball, which has suddenly become very effective this year. This seems strange to me, as you’d think moving to thin air would make your curveball *less* effective. Monday Tom Gorzelanny, LHP (2.57,4.60) v Jorge De La Rosa, RHP (4.05,4.07), 7:40 PM CT De La Rosa is another successful retread by the Rockies. I remember him when he was with the Brewers - he was pretty much the definition of underwhelming. Since coming to the Rockies though, he has posted FIPs of 4.06 (2008) and 4.05 (2009). He’s been able to have a decent strikeout rate (8.86 K/9) AND a decent (for him) walk rate (3.68). In the past it was one or the other, but never both at the same time. He’s also seen a slight uptick in his GB rate since coming to Coors. Gorzelanny was spectacular in his Cubs debut, striking out 6 and walking one while allowing only one run in 7.1 innings. So far, it looks like Littlefield was right to urge Hendry to go after him. The Rockies hit LHP fairly well (.791 OPS v .769 for RHP). Prediction Split. These are a bunch of great matchups, as you would expect with two playoff teams facing off. No team has a clear advantage in any of these games. Pennant watch mini-preview: Cards v Pirates Carpenter (2.79,3.01) v Maholm (3.64.3.96) Wainwright (3.41,3.57) v Morton (4.03,4.45) Pineiro (2.91,3.68) v Duke (4.23,4.23) Cards win 2 out of 3, up half a game on the Cubs going into the Phillies series