Series Preview: Houston Astros (62-68) vs Chicago Cubs (65-63)

Houston comes to Wrigley reeling from a road sweep by the lowly Diamondbacks. The Cubs will miss Wandy Rodriguez in this series, who has seemingly been injured in the second inning of every start he’s had against the Cardinals this year. The Astros have a .318 wOBA on the season, 12th in the NL, and are just behind the cubs with a 4.39 FIP, good for 9th in the NL. Houston’s main problem is depth in their pitching staff - there’s a huge dropoff from their good arms (W-Rod, Oswalt, Valverde, Sampson, Hawkins) to the rest of the stiffs they’ve run out there (Hampton, Ortiz, Backe, Mohler, Wright…). Sadly, there are no thunderstorms in the offing so we won’t see Berkman ducking and covering anytime soon. Injuries. It’s September 1st tomorrow, so this is *less* of a big deal now. Johnson is the only player of consequence on the DL for the Cubs. Mike Hampton, in true Mike Hampton style, is on the DL and is not getting just one or two surgeries, but THREE surgeries (left shoulder, both knees). Underrated defensive whiz Geoff Blum is having some nerve problems in his shoulder and is probably only available for PH duties (this is just me speculating). Players to watch: Clubhouse meningitis Milton Bradley has come on strong of late, posting a .652 wOBA in the past week despite being having his hands strung to a railroad tie as he’s being dragged out of town by the media. Fat Elvis, meanwhile, has been slumping of late - he’s posted a .221 wOBA over the same span Pitching probables Monday Roy Oswalt, RHP (3.84,3.51) v Rich Harden, RHP (4.38,3.29), 7:05 PM CT ZOMG RICH HARDEN WAS CLAIMED ON WAIVERS AND THE CUBS DON’T HAVE THE RIGHTS TO HIM ANYMORE!!!!!eleven!!! More seriously, this should be a great matchup. Both of these guys are good at throwing baseballs. Oswalt’s FIP numbers are a lot better than I remember from earlier in the season, when he admitted to being ‘lost’ on the mound. He’s posted a 4.09 FIP over the past month, so I guess the turnaround didn’t happen too recently. Harden’s been a little better with his HR problems lately, and has been going deeper into games (6, 7, 7, 6 IP in his last 4 starts and only 2 HR). He only gave up 12 hits in those 4 starts, so his stuff is still pretty good. Tuesday Brian Moehler, RHP (4.65,4.96) v Randy Wells, RHP (3.88,4.16), 7:05 PM CT Moehler’s been a little unlucky (.326 BABIP), but for the most part he’s been hit pretty hard this year. Moehler’s main asset is his control (2.53 BB/9 for his career), but he’s not fooling a ton of hitters (4.96 K/9). He’s also 37 years old, and is likely to be the type of pitcher that we’ll be seeing in Houston for a while to come given their barren farm system and Wade’s love of fringy veterans. What else can I say about Randy Wells? He’s been great for the Cubs this year, and would have been a shoo-in for the ROY award if the rest of the team hadn’t fallen apart around him this year. Here’s hoping he has a great 2009 too, with the Cubs or whatever team the Cubs trade him to, if they re-sign Harden. Wednesday Felipe Paulino?, RHP (5.11,6.01) v Ted Lilly, LHP (3.98,4.19), 1:20 PM CT MLB’s website still has this as TBA for Houston, but Yahoo has him penciled in here. Paulino was hammered for 4 runs in only 2/3 of an inning by the Cubs in his only appearance against them this year, turning a rout into a blowout. His minor league numbers aren’t especially good, and he’s about to hit his peak years. We probably won’t see much of him going forward. Lilly has been lights-out since returning from the DL, and will hopefully continue this run. If the Cusb re-sign Harden, he probably has a decent chance of being traded as well since he is signed to a reasonable deal. He’ll probably get type-A status. Prediction. Cubs win series, 2 out of 3. The last two games are BIG mismatches, but tonight’s game should be really good.