Signing a free-agent starting pitcher is a massive risk

In a post to his blog, Patrick Flood looks 10 best and worst and  free-agent contracts ever signed by starting pitchers, as well as contracts signed by a whole bunch in the middle, and concludes: “Signing [free agent starting pitcher] to a multi-year contract looks like a bad idea. For all the pitchers listed here, it has cost teams $12.4 dollars per win above a replacement-level pitcher. Outfielders signed to multi-year deals, over the same time period, ran at about $6.5 dollars per win above replacement. Some pitchers don’t pitch as well after they sign. Some are overpaid to begin with. Some get hurt and don’t pitch at all. Sometimes it’s all three. But the result is that signing a free agent starting pitcher to a multi-year deal is a massive risk, and one that usually burns the team.” According to MLB Trade Rumors, Erik Bedard, Mark Buehrle, Chris Capuano, Bartolo Colon, Jeff Francis, Armando Galarraga, Jon Garland, Livan Hernandez, Edwin Jackson, Paul Maholm, Jason M...