Originally posted on Baseball Think Factory  |  Last updated 10/30/11
Last offseason I ran a short analysis of the available FA hitters and I concluded that the Red Sox should go after exactly none of them.  Adrian Beltre looked like the one positional FA who would be a good gamble.  I ended up getting talked into Carl Crawford over the remainder of the offseason, and that turned out less than well.  I did, at the time, make a case against Jayson Werth that I still feel pretty good about.  Given that we have three data points, sufficient to demonstrate that this method of analysis is nearly foolproof, I figured I should run it again. The method is really simple – I’m doing a regressed weighted average of the value stats from Fangraphs WAR and CHONE WAR, and converting to a dollar value for a dumber-than-Marcel projection.  I’m looking at the three big FAs – Pujols, Fielder, and Reyes.  My first conclusion is that folks need to stop talking about Pujols and Fielder as if they’re interchangeable.  They are not, and it isn’t close.  Pujols +47 Bat...
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