The Dumber-than-Marcels: Free Agent Starters

My first run-through of the dumber-than-Marcel projections for position players left me quite skeptical of the top-line free agents. Now I’ve done the pitchers, my sense is that once again it’s the middle-class free agents who will offer better value. These projections are based on a 3/2/1/2 regressed weighted average of pitcher value stats, a 50-50 split of Fangraphs and CHONE numbers. It’s a half-FIP, half-RA projection. In the position player projections, I included a $ value based on the one-season projection, but most players want a multi-year contract. So, what I’ve included instead is a projected contract value over 1, 3, and 5 seasons for each pitcher. To the numbers: +13 RAA +27 Rep = +41 RAR, 1/20, 3/54, 5/81 – Wilson +5 RAA + 27 Rep = +32 RAR, 1/16, 3/42, 5/59 – Buehrle +3 RAA + 26 Rep = +39 RAR, 1/14, 3/36, 5/50 – Jackson -2 RAA +23 Rep = +21 RAR, 1/10, 3/25, 5/30 – Vazquez To compare to the existing Sox rotation: +15 RAA + 26 Rep = +41 RAR, 1/20, 3/55, 5/83 ...