Found September 11, 2012 on
The Orioles splitting their four-game series with the Yankees in Baltimore was not ideal - it left them a game back in the AL East - but is was more or less the expected result given that New York is the better team but the O's had home-field advantage. Both victories for the team came in exciting fashion, perhaps especially the second one in which a hobbled Mark Teixeira slid into first-base attempting to beat a double play ball in the 9th - making it - but being called out to end the game. That win was bitter-sweet though, as earlier Nick Markakis was hit on the hand by a CC Sabathia pitch. Getting the W in the game but losing one of their best players for the rest of the regular season (and likely most, if not all, of any potential play-off run) is a trade-off I saw many people mentioning as essentially worthwhile (given that one decent but not outstanding player just isn't going to contribute much over the course of games).
Instead of looking at what Markakis' loss does to the team, I'll point you to Camden Depot's nice break-down of the changes; bottom line, it's something like 0.4 to 0.75 wins. In a close pennant race, that's certainly nothing to scoff at. But picking up a game on the Yankees due to the blown call* is a full win! Or was it?
* Replay please.
The situation: runners on first and third, one out, Yankees down by one in the top of the ninth. Teixeira hits a grounder to the second-baseman, throw to shortstop covering, relay to first to get Tex. If he beats the throw to first then the run counts. Some people seem to be viewing the difference between a "safe" and an "out" as the difference between a loss and a win, but it's clearly not close to that.
If Teixeira is safe, then the game is tied and there are two outs with a runner on first. The generic win expectancy for a home team in that situation is ~57%. With two outs it's unlikely the opposing team will score again, and the O's would only need one run to end the game in their favor in the bottom of the frame. Maybe you want to give the Yankees a bump for having A-Rod and Robby Cano coming up, but Jim Johnson is no slouch on the mound.
So the blown call probably benefited the Orioles by somewhere around 0.4 to 0.45 wins. That's right around the lower part of the estimate of the loss of Nick Markakis. Given that, I'd gladly trade a hand protector for Nick for a pair of glasses for the first-base ump. But that's not the universe we live in, so the O's are going to have to mix-and-match to keep things going (at least rosters are expanded now). The team's made a lot out of not all that much all season, so I wouldn't count on that to come to a halt now. It is a tougher climb though.
BEST OF MAXIM
Not enough power. Not a prototypical No. 3 hitter. Not enough speed to be a leadoff batter. However, Nick Markakis has plenty of qualities that have proved irreplaceable for the Baltimore Orioles. In an organization and city where playing every day means something -- see: Ripken, Cal -- Markakis has carried the torch, playing in 160-plus games in four of his first six big-league...
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The Baltimore Orioles designated right-hander Kevin Gregg for assignment on Tuesday and announced that outfielder Nick Markakis underwent successful surgery on his left thumb. Gregg is 3-2 with a 4.74 ERA this season and has been a major disappointment since signing a two-year, $10 million contract. Last season, he was 0-3 with a 4.37 ERA and converted only 22 of 29 save opportunities...
For the second time in three games, the Baltimore Orioles had an uplifting victory marred by an injury to a key player.
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But starting pitcher Jason Hammel left in the fourth inning with an injured right knee. The right-hander...
Orioles starter Jason Hammel, the team's most effective starter, exited Tuesday's game with the Rays after just 3 1/3 innings. Hammel had pain in his right knee, which caused him to miss the past two months after surgery. Tuesday's start was his second since coming off of the DL, and he reportedly felt a stabbing pain in his knee before leaving the game, the same pain...
In just his second start since being activated from the disabled
list, Baltimore Orioles right-hander Jason Hammel exited last night’s contest
against the Tampa Bay Rays early with a right knee injury. It’s the same knee that caused him to miss
significant time earlier this season, and he’s set to undergo an MRI today to
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Making his first appearance against the Orioles, Cobb tries to help the Rays even their three-game set at Camden Yards on Wednesday night.
J.J. Hardy homered twice and had five RBIs in Baltimore...
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The big news on...
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The American League East is the most closely contended division in all of Major League Baseball with just a few weeks remaining in the 2012 regular season. The top two teams, however, have been thrown an extra challenge after suffering injuries to to of their top offensive and defensive players.
The New York Yankees have a one game lead in the A.L. East over the Baltimore...
Office Space FTW!
Your mission (should you choose to accept it) consists of explaining how in the world the Baltimore Orioles reached mid-September with a statistically plausible chance at making the playoffs. How exactly does a team that ranks 16th in runs scored, 21st in batting average, 23rd in OBP, and 12th in slugging hang with the big bad wolves of the AL East? More importantly...
Or maybe the drones mapped Busch Stadium when Dennys Reyes was still with the Cards?Still... poor form, Google.
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The Tampa Bay Rays will spend this week chasing the two teams they trail in the AL East race, with each of those opponents also representing a possible roadblock to a wild-card berth.
Grab the remote control and settle back on the couch, though chances are youll also be on your feet and pacing considering...