Originally written on Camden Crazies  |  Last updated 11/18/14
Mlb_apr_26_988d
The Orioles splitting their four-game series with the Yankees in Baltimore was not ideal - it left them a game back in the AL East - but is was more or less the expected result given that New York is the better team but the O's had home-field advantage. Both victories for the team came in exciting fashion, perhaps especially the second one in which a hobbled Mark Teixeira slid into first-base attempting to beat a double play ball in the 9th - making it - but being called out to end the game. That win was bitter-sweet though, as earlier Nick Markakis was hit on the hand by a CC Sabathia pitch. Getting the W in the game but losing one of their best players for the rest of the regular season (and likely most, if not all, of any potential play-off run) is a trade-off I saw many people mentioning as essentially worthwhile (given that one decent but not outstanding player just isn't going to contribute much over the course of games). Instead of looking at what Markakis' loss does to the team, I'll point you to Camden Depot's nice break-down of the changes; bottom line, it's something like 0.4 to 0.75 wins. In a close pennant race, that's certainly nothing to scoff at. But picking up a game on the Yankees due to the blown call* is a full win! Or was it? * Replay please. The situation: runners on first and third, one out, Yankees down by one in the top of the ninth. Teixeira hits a grounder to the second-baseman, throw to shortstop covering, relay to first to get Tex. If he beats the throw to first then the run counts. Some people seem to be viewing the difference between a "safe" and an "out" as the difference between a loss and a win, but it's clearly not close to that. If Teixeira is safe, then the game is tied and there are two outs with a runner on first. The generic win expectancy for a home team in that situation is ~57%. With two outs it's unlikely the opposing team will score again, and the O's would only need one run to end the game in their favor in the bottom of the frame. Maybe you want to give the Yankees a bump for having A-Rod and Robby Cano coming up, but Jim Johnson is no slouch on the mound. So the blown call probably benefited the Orioles by somewhere around 0.4 to 0.45 wins. That's right around the lower part of the estimate of the loss of Nick Markakis. Given that, I'd gladly trade a hand protector for Nick for a pair of glasses for the first-base ump. But that's not the universe we live in, so the O's are going to have to mix-and-match to keep things going (at least rosters are expanded now). The team's made a lot out of not all that much all season, so I wouldn't count on that to come to a halt now. It is a tougher climb though.
GET THE YARDBARKER APP:
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45
MORE FROM YARDBARKER

Gronk reads erotica, sings Katy Perry at SB Media Day

Governor donates $10K to UNM hoops star’s cancer charity

U.S. Soccer: Hope Solo needs to do 'number of things' to return

K.J. Wright: Targeting injured players 'unacceptable'

Five reasons the Patriots will win the Super Bowl

LIKE WHAT YOU SEE?
GET THE DAILY NEWSLETTER:

Five reasons the Seahawks will win the Super Bowl

Bill Simmons fires a shot at ESPN colleague Ray Lewis

Which teams are most squarely on the bubble?

Tiger Woods: 'There was blood everywhere' after tooth incident

Jerry Rice: Asterisk needed if Patriots win Super Bowl

Pete Carroll ok with Robert Kraft despite Patriots firing

One of Tom Brady's ‘treats’ is avocado ice cream

Does MLB need more offense in the modern game?

Re-ranking the Top 25: exposing the biggest flaws

Tiger on wearing mask: ‘Not a lot of brown dudes at ski races’

Putting the Cleveland Cavaliers’ pieces together

Brodeur to retire immediately and join Blues front office

Michael Bennett talks about sex superstition, calls reporter gay

As Patriots prepare, it's easy to forget about Hernandez

Marcus Mariota's younger brother will play at Oregon

Marshawn Lynch on Media Day: 'I'm here so I won't get fined'

Ranking all 48 Super Bowls

'Goodell Must Go' mobile banners heading to Phoenix

MLB News
Delivered to your inbox
You'll also receive Yardbarker's daily Top 10, featuring the best sports stories from around the web. Customize your newsletter to get articles on your favorite sports and teams. And the best part? It's free!

By clicking "Sign Me Up", you have read and agreed to the Fox Sports Digital Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. You can opt out at any time. For more information, please see our Privacy Policy.
the YARDBARKER app
Get it now!
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45

Does MLB need more offense in the modern game?

Re-ranking the Top 25: exposing the biggest flaws

Putting the Cavs’ pieces together

Super Bowl XLIX: Key people to know

Ranking all 48 Super Bowls

Bill Simmons fires a shot at Ray Lewis

NFL pushing CFP to change schedule

Can Yanks not pay A-Rod his bonuses?

Petition started to remove Pats from SB

On John Wall's adidas J Wall 1 NYC All-Star Edition

NFL approved Pats' under-inflated balls?

Six best Super Bowl coaches of all-time

Today's Best Stuff
For Bloggers

Join the Yardbarker Network for more promotion, traffic, and money.

Company Info
Help
What is Yardbarker?

Yardbarker is the largest network of sports blogs and pro athlete blogs on the web. This site is the hub of the Yardbarker Network, where our editors and algorithms curate the best sports content from our network and beyond.