Welcome to the August 26, 2010 edition of This Week in Prospects!
This is going to be the second-to-last week of this format, as I’ll be using the column to unveil my Top 100 Prospects list starting September 9th. I’m not sure yet what I’ll use the column for between the conclusion of the Top 100 Prospects and the start of the 2011 minor league season, but we’ll cross that bridge when we get there. This format will resume with the advent of the 2011 minor league season.
Anyway, with that announcement out of the way, let’s get to this week’s ten players. Yankees and Indians farmhands make up half of this week’s list, and I’ll also look at a player in the running for the minor league homer crown, as well as two sleeper Double-A first basemen, and a whole lot more. Profiles after the jump, as always.
Hot Shots
Jason Knapp, RHP, Indians (Low-A)—Knapp’s missed most of the year with shoulder trouble, but he’s been lights-out since returning, dominating Rookie League hitters in five rehab starts before moving back to Low-A ball, where he spent 2009.
Thus far, he’s made two starts, and allowed just one hit and two walks in nine innings, whiffing 13. Yeah, he’s back, all right.
I ranked Knapp in the top 10 overall of prospects last year, and even after missing much of 2010, he’s now unquestionably ready for High-A, and he just is turning 20 next week. With an arsenal that includes a mid-90’s fastball and two solid offspeed pitches, the sky is the limit for Knapp, who could be an ace if he can stay healthy. Rough mechanics make him an injury risk, and there’s obviously cause for concern after he missed over half a season here. Still, hey, it keeps his innings down and his arm fresh, and it’s not like Knapp’s behind schedule even with the missed time.
Keep an eye on this guy. Everybody thought Cleveland was ridiculous to trade Cliff Lee away last year, but if Knapp reaches his upside, it’ll ultimately look good for the Indians.
Joe Wieland, RHP, Rangers (High-A)—Wieland had a nice run in Low-A earlier this year, mainly thanks to his walking just 15 batters in 89 innings. For a 20-year-old, that suggested good things, even though he struck out a fairly pedestrian 71 batters. It looked like Wieland was going to be a nice back-of-the-rotation starter.
We might need to revise that projection upward a little bit now.
Promoted to High-A Bakersfield at the start of July, Wieland has thrown 56 innings at the higher level. Again, he’s walked almost nobody (just ten batters), but his strikeouts have found a new level against the better hitters of the California League, as Wieland has whiffed 61 batters at the new level already. He has a 4.98 ERA, but his 2.81 FIP shows that to be mostly bad luck, to say nothing of the high-offense league Wieland plays in.
Wieland operates with a low-90’s fastball, a hard breaking ball, and a changeup. The changeup is solid enough that Wieland doesn’t have too many issues with lefties, and the breaker is an above-average pitch. Obviously, he’s able to consistently locate all three for strikes.
It looks like Wieland could have a long career as a #2-#4 starter who consistently keeps his team in games.
Johermyn Chavez, OF, Mariners (High-A)—Just like Knapp’s potential makes the Cliff Lee trade to early to judge, Chavez’s potential should make us not write off the Mariners’ Brandon Morrow trade.
It was commonly perceived that the Mariners sent Morrow to Toronto for reliever Brandon League, who, while a good pitcher, is nowhere near the impact talent Morrow is (largely because Morrow starts and League relieves). But Chavez was also sent to Seattle in the trade, and for a Mariner organization in need of some offense, he may be a godsend.
Among the minor league leaders in homers with 31, Chavez has hit .315/.382/.581 in High-A this year at age 21. He’s torn lefties apart (.353/.412/.594), but hangs in against righties as well (.301/.371/.576), which, along with his position and age, makes him probably a better prospect than fellow Cal League slugger Paul Goldschmidt.
My crude benchmark for judging if power guys are making enough contact to survive is if they strike out more than once per game, and while Chavez certainly will whiff, he’s right at that mark, with 123 K’s in 124 contests. He’s improved his strikeout rate for three straight years, and he shows at least rudimentary discipline with 45 walks.
I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention Chavez’s environment as a factor in his breakout. Not only does he play in the Cal League, his home park is High Desert, which is probably the second-most hitter-friendly park in the circuit, and possibly all the minors. Indeed, Chavez has hit .339/.410/.697 at home and just .289/.350/.455 on the road, so the Southern League may hit him hard. His road line matches up well with his Midwest League numbers from last year (.283/.346/.474), so exercise some caution before anointing this guy a future 40-HR player.
There are certainly some reasons to be excited about Chavez, who could turn into the good version of Jose Guillen if his talent comes together. There’s also the potential for a Wladimir Balentien career, though, which should make Mariner fans somewhat nervous.
Slumping Stars
Freddy Galvis, SS, Phillies (AA)—Looking at Galvis’ batting lines makes me wonder why anyone ever considered him a good prospect. Since 2007, he’s never slugged over .310 at any stop, nor posted an OBP over .300.
Now, sure, he’s a 20-year-old in Double-A who plays a very good shortstop, but unless his bat improves dramatically, he’s a switch-hitting John McDonald at best. You can’t do much in the majors, and you certainly can’t start, if you’re going to be hitting an empty .225. Galvis isn’t even an impact basestealer. If his defense is as good as advertized, maybe he could be an acceptable utilityman who comes in late in games for defensive purposes, but barring a huge offensive turnaround, I just can’t imagine him becoming more than that, even though he’s young for his level.
Austin Romine, C, Yankees, (AA)—I’m higher on the Yankees system than most, but Romine doesn’t strike me as the sort of player who’s going to ever start for the Yankees. He’s now posted .322 OBPs for two straight years, and he’s only thrown out 21% of basestealers this season. Sure, he’s got some nice doubles power and hits for a decent average, and the guy could be an acceptable starter or good backup in the majors. But there seems to be this idea that Romine will seamlessly replace Jorge Posada someday, and I just don’t see that happening. When have the Yankees been known to settle for .270/.325/.400 hitters with middling defense, even at catcher?
Of course, Romine’s young for his level as well, being 21 years old, but it’s difficult to see stardom here; none of his skills really jump out as better than average. Romine looks like Chris Snyder with more singles and fewer walks.
Kelvin De La Cruz, LHP, Indians (AA)—Hey, who doesn’t love a 6’6” lefty with good velocity and a plus curveball? That profile certainly made me excited about De La Cruz, the rare Cleveland lefty prospect who didn’t succeed on guile, entering the year.
After missing most of 2009, De La Cruz opened up 2010 with six solid starts in High-A before being pushed to Double-A at age 21 (he turned 22 three weeks ago).
There, the command problems that plagued him early in his career cropped up with a vengeance, and De La Cruz could no longer rely on just whiffing over a batter per inning. The result has been a 77/64 K/BB in 93 2/3 innings, and a largely deserved 5.77 ERA.
The lefty’s mechanics come and go, leading to results than can fluctuate wildly from one start to the next. His 90-94 mph heat and big curve can still leave batters baffled when he’s on, but De La Cruz lacks much of a changeup, and Double-A hitters are patient enough to lay off high heat and curves in the dirt.
Now 22, De La Cruz still has some time to figure things out, but he’s a prime candidate for a shift to relief work if he isn’t throwing strikes by midseason 2011.
Sleeper Alert!
Clint Robinson, 1B, Royals (AA)—A sleeper in arguably the best minor league system in baseball, Robinson has torn the Texas League to shreds this year, batting .321/.404/.596 with 25 homers.
Of course, this is a 25-year-old Double-A first baseman we’re talking about, so that explains Robinson’s lack of recognition.
Still, there are some interesting numbers that show Robinson to be a very complete hitter once you look beneath the surface. For one, he really hangs in with lefties, batting .310/.377/.542 (he crushes righties at a .327/.418/.626 clip). For another, he’s only whiffed 81 times in 117 games, well under that once-per-game benchmark I discussed with Chavez, and enabling Robinson to hit for a good average as well as the plus power.
A .342/.424/.662 hitter since the All-Star Break, Robinson could be a nice trade chip for the Royals, who don’t need another 1B/DH type with Billy Butler and Kila Ka’aihue already on hand.
Joe Mahoney, 1B, Orioles (AA)—The Orioles have had issues at first base recently, and Mahoney may be a long-term solution. Like Robinson, he’s destroying Double-A pitching, batting .342/.410/.604, but he’s also two years younger and playing in the pitcher-friendly Eastern League.
A 6’7” behemoth, Mahoney moves surprisingly well and has stolen six bases in 41 Double-A games. He also doesn’t strike out much for a slugger, with 29 whiffs (against 16 walks) in those 41 contests. The lefty swinger also hits his fellow southpaws well, with a .350/.366/.675 line, albeit in 40 at-bats.
Like Robinson, Mahoney is a surprisingly complete hitter who has a shot at being a nice middle-of-the-order threat.
Nik Turley, LHP, Yankees (Short-season-A)—It might seem odd that I’m talking up a guy with a 4.80 ERA in short-season ball as some type of prospect, but Turley has quite a bit going for him.
First off, he’s a 6’7” lefty with a good fastball and two promising offspeed pitches at age 20. That should get your attention.
For another, he doesn’t deserve that high ERA, as his 3.10 FIP points out. Turley hasn’t allowed a homer this season in 61 1/3 innings across two levels, and he’s got a decent 49/25 K/BB.
Turley, like most young pitchers over six-and-a-half feet tall, is still figuring out his mechanics, so he occasionally has hiccups, like his last start, which saw him walk six batters in five innings. Still, he keeps the walks reasonable enough for now, and he strikes out a reasonable amount as well, so as he grows into his body and gets more comfortable with his delivery, Turley really could take off. He’s a guy to watch long-term.
The Quadruple-A Special
Jonathan Albaladejo, RHP, Yankees—The 27-year-old Albaladejo has a whopping 1.98 FIP this year, which has seen him nail down an incredible 42 saves (not that I really care about saves).
An 80/18 K/BB, just two homers allowed, and just 37 hits in 62 innings will get you overall numbers like that, and Albaladejo hasn’t been overmatched in the majors in his 65 career innings there, with a 4.15 ERA backed up by his peripherals.
The big righty has two plus breaking pitches in his slider and curveball, but he’s focused too much in the past on blowing his fastball by hitters, which works in Triple-A but isn’t nearly as effective against MLB stars, since Albaladejo only works at 88-94 with his fastball. A more breaking pitch-centered approach would suit him better, as MLB hitters have had a ton of trouble squaring up his slider and curve, but they’ve found the heater to be of little challenge.
With a much-improved K rate in Triple-A this year, it looks like Albaladejo is certainly doing something better, and he deserves another look in the majors.
Original Story:
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