Welcome to the September 2, 2010 edition of This Week in Prospects! This will likely be the last edition in 2010 that features the current updates like this, as I’ll be using the next ten columns to unveil my Top 100 Prospect List.
This week is dominated by a couple of teams: New York teams, the Cubs, and the Phillies combine to account for eight of this week’s ten players. I guess I’m East Coast biased this week! In particular, we’ll look at two promising Phillies pitchers, a rare Yankee disappointment, and a Cubs catcher with absurd numbers.
That and more after the jump!
Hot Shots
Jenrry Mejia, RHP, Mets—Mejia is back in Flushing as of today, being one of the first September callus for the Mets.
The Mejia saga is well-documented at this point: the top starter prospect was given an ill-advised rush to the majors as a 20-year-old reliever largely due to manager Jerry Manuel’s stubbornness, predictably struggled against the advanced competition, and was finally dispatched back to the minors as a starter almost halfway into the season.
Well, it could all work out in the end, as Mejia threw nine starts of 1.28 ERA ball, whiffing 45 and walking just 16 in 42 1/3 innings. His first Triple-A start featured eight innings, one run, one walk, and nine strikeouts.
Mejia is still very young and somewhat raw, so expecting him to be a front-of-the-rotation pitcher now is unrealistic. Still, he’s a hard thrower with good command (for his age, anyway) and a good changeup. Mejia also keeps the ball down exceptionally well. I’m still cautiously optimistic about his potential, but Manuel’s meddling does cast a shadow of doubt here. It’s good to see that Mejia went right back to dominating as a starter in the minors, though: it does show some real resilience.
Trevor May, RHP, Phillies (Low-A)—May is three weeks older than Mejia, and yet he’s still fairly young for the South Atlantic League. The 2008 fourth-rounder’s command problems ate him up in High-A (61 walks in 70 innings), causing him to post an ERA over 5.00, but he did show good strikeout ability, whiffing 90.
A demotion to Low-A followed (that walk rate will do it), and the whiffs only intensified, but the bases on balls largely disappeared. May has an 85/19 K/BB in 59 innings at the lower level, including a 39/7 ratio against lefties.
May’s plus changeup is what helps him with those lefties, and he also works in the low-90’s with his fastball while mixing in a good curveball. Pitchers have won many games with worse stuff than his, that’s for sure. If these gains in command are for real, we could be looking at a potential #2 starter down the line—pitchers with this sort of strikeout ability don’t come along very often, although the Phillies seem to be stockpiling a few (most notably Austin Hyatt).
Robinson Chirinos, C, Cubs (AAA)—Chirinos is making me give serious thought to the idea of putting a 26-year-old who spent most of the year in Double-A on my Top 100 Prospects list.
Let’s inventory his skills.
He catches. That’s one.
He catches well, throwing out about a third of basestealers and allowing just five passed balls this year. That’s two.
He’s also got experience at all four infield spots. That’s three.
He hit .318 this year in Double-A and struck out just 35 times in 77 games. That’s four.
He ripped 24 doubles and 15 homers in those 77 games, slugging .580. That’s five.
He walked more (42) than he struck out (35). That’s six.
Ahh, okay, so he went just 1-for-6 in steals. Oh well. Chirinos does literally everything else well.
A late-season promotion to Triple-A has seen the backstop hit .333/.407/.542 in 13 games, right there with the .318/.412/.580 line he had at the lower level.
Players who can make consistent contact, hit the ball out of the park, and play good defense behind the plate are extremely rare. Chirinos is something of an enigma given his advanced age, but there’s no question that he’s an extremely interesting prospect, June 1984 birthday or not.
Slumping Stars
Brandon Laird, 3B, Yankees (AAA)—The last few issues of TWiP seem to always feature strong performances by Yankee farmhands (Manny Banuelos, Andrew Brackman, David Phelps, Nik Turley, etc.), but not everything is sunny for Yankee prospects.
Laird, 22, had crushed the ball at a .291/.355/.523 clip in Double-A, but a 24-game stint in Triple-A has been a disaster, as he’s put up a 26/4 K/BB while batting .211/.240/.305.
With 21 errors on the season, Laird may not even be able to stick at third long-term, and his plate approach is troubling. He seems to me to be the sort of guy whose aggressiveness at the dish just won’t translate to the majors well, a la Jake Fox. Laird’s young enough to make some strides in that area of his game, but given the Yankees 1B/3B situation, he’d have to put up mind-blowing numbers to get much attention, and he looks like a one-dimensional player who isn’t likely to make that happen.
Angel Salome, C/OF, Brewers (High-A)—Oh, how the mighty have fallen.
Salome hit .360/.415/.559 in Double-A two years ago, and .286/.334/.413 in Triple-A last year, but he’s been left down in High-A for almost all of 2010, and has hit just .279/.340/.403 there.
At 24, he’s far from young for that level, and he’s also almost exclusively DHed, spending four games in right field and none at catcher.
In other words, pretty much everything that made Salome such an intriguing prospect in the first place is gone.
Craig Clark, LHP, Giants (Low-A)—The jump from High-A to Double-A kills a ton of prospects every year, and Clark is the classic soft-tosser who got exposed against quality hitters.
With a low-to-mid-80’s fastball and no plus offspeed stuff, it was a marvel that Clark was consistently able to whiff nearly a batter an inning all the way up through High-A, which had some thinking he could be another Kirk Rueter for the Giants.
That hope was effectively put to rest with nine poor Double-A starts that saw Clark’s formerly impressive K/BB (135/36 and 111/23 in 2009 and 2008) dwindle to 23/21 in 42 2/3 innings.
The Giants were so disillusioned by the 26-year-old that they sent him to Low-A, where he posted a 5.45 ERA in seven starts (albeit with a 35/10 K/BB).
So, Clark’s now 26 and has been demoted to a long relief role in Low-A. His stuff gave him long odds of making the majors in the first place; now it’s just ridiculous.
Sleeper Alert!
Trey McNutt, RHP, Cubs (AA)—Okay, so McNutt’s allowed seven earned runs in 9 2/3 Double-A innings. That doesn’t diminish one of the minors’ best pitching seasons.
A 32nd-round pick last year, McNutt opened the year by posting a 1.51 ERA in 13 Low-A starts, allowing no homers and whiffing 70 in 59 2/3 innings. He then went on to High-A and put up a 49/9 K/BB in 41 frames, earning a promotion to Double-A. All this from an unheralded guy who just turned 21.
The righty works off a low-90’s sinker that touches 95 mph, and his curveball and changeup both show promise. Like Chirinos, Chris Archer, and others, McNutt is among a ton of formerly C-grade Cubs prospects who have taken big steps forward in 2010.
Matt den Dekker, OF, Mets (Low-A)—Few 2010 draftees can claim better statistical starts than fifth-rounder Den Dekker, who’s hit .413/.478/.550 in Low-A in 21 games.
Now, he won’t keep hitting over .400 striking out once a game, but Den Dekker has quality contact skills and gap power that are already showing up in pro ball.
He also possesses nice speed and is considered a plus defender in center field.
At 23, Den Dekker is getting a late start in pro ball, but he looks like he could start 2011 in High-A, which will get him closer to most prospects his age. If he cuts his strikeouts down, he could be a quality starting MLB center fielder, and a fifth-round steal.
Julio Rodriguez, RHP, Phillies (Low-A)—Rodriguez may be even more intriguing than his teammate May, as he’s 11 months younger and has whiffed a ridiculous 79 batters in 50 1/3 innings.
The Puerto Rican righthander has bounced between starting and relieving, but has been dominant in both roles.
An eighth-round pick in 2008, Rodriguez is a physical specimen with good arm strength and projection. He already throws 87-92 mph and could gain another tick or two down the line. His second pitch is a big, slow curveball, and he’s working on his changeup.
Anyone with these sorts of numbers (and like I mentioned with May, the Phillies seem to have quite a few of these guys) deserves to be watched carefully, and Rodriguez just turned 20, so he has youth on his side.
The Quadruple-A Special
Tagg Bozied, 1B/3B, Phillies (AA)—For the second time this year, I’m going with a Double-A player as the Quad-A Special. The first was Paul McAnulty, who later would be promoted to Triple-A and the majors with the Angels.
The hulking Bozied has done plenty of damage in Triple-A in the past, so Double-A has just been too easy for him, as he’s hit .318/.405/.622 even in the pitcher-friendly Eastern League. He also hit a ridiculous 11 homers in August, bashing an unreal .374/.470/.778 in the month.
Bozied, 31, hit .288/.360/.447 in Triple-A last year and .306/.382/.569 the year before, and he’s had plenty of success there in his career. He’s been working on becoming an acceptable defender at third base this year, as he’s been mostly confined to first in the past. He also has some outfield experience.
You certainly can’t deny Bozied’s offensive output, and if he can play four positions passably, he’s got to have some use as an NL reserve. At his age, it’s probably too late, but one can hope.
Original Story:
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