Update: Can Michael Young Reach 3,000 Hits?

In March 2010, I analyzed the probability of Michael Young reaching 3,000 hits. At the time, Young had 1,662 hits entering his Age 33 season. I compared Young's career to the members of the 3,000 Hit Club as well as other 32-year-olds with careers similar to Young at that point. My conclusions: Everyone reaching 3,000 except Wade Boggs had a significant head start on Young, who didn't collect his first hit until turning 24 or have a great offensive season until 26. The average 3,000 Club member already had 462 hits entering his Age 24 season. The average 3,000 Club member had only 1,267 hits after turning 33. Young needed 1,338, more than what 19 of the 27 members achieved. Young would have to "outhealth" and outhit some of history's best to reach 3,000. The 25 hitters with careers most similar to Young through their Age 32 seasons averaged only 706 hits from Age 33 onward, and only two (Molitor, Biggio) had as many hits as Young needed for 3,000. 12 of ...