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Who stands to benefit the most from the slow MLB offseason?
Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

Who stands to benefit the most from the slow MLB offseason?

It's no secret that Major League Baseball’s hot stove season has only reached room temperature at best. As the second week of January moves along, whether the stove even works at this point is a reasonable question. Save for Japanese sensation Shohei Ohtani joining Mike Trout, the surprising addition in Philadelphia of Carlos Santana and the recently signed Wade Davis heading to Colorado, nearly every major free agent remains homeless for the 2018 season.

With spring training just over a month away and plenty of teams in need of the type of substantial adjustments that the open market holds, sooner than later the ice will crack and headline signings will replace the preference for trades that the 2017 offseason has been dictated by.

As more and more time passes, it becomes increasingly likely that the type of mammoth deals that were expected this winter largely become a thing of the past. While Yu Darvish, J.D. Martinez, Mike Moustakas, Greg Holland and Lance Lynn, among others, could be looking at lessened pacts than they envisioned, there are still a handful of players whose stocks continue to be ironclad as days drag on. Likewise, there are many teams whose fortunes are improving as time becomes a more favorable asset for them.

As the MLB offseason continues to redefine itself, lets have a look at whose position for the spring continues to improve as the winter carries on.

Players 


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Jake Arrieta: After the All-Star break, the 2015 NL Cy Young Award winner recaptured his top-shelf form, posting a 2.09 ERA and a .215 average against. In the wake of that late-season uptick, he has re-emerged as one of the most coveted arms on the open market.

He also has become the latest in a line of former Cubs and Cardinals who have emerged at the heart of a potential custody battle between the two division foes. Each team is said to have interest in the hurler, which could spark an inspired bidding war over Arrieta that is exclusive to him amid an otherwise lukewarm winter for top-notch, non-Ohtani hurlers.

Lorenzo Cain: The 31-year-old center fielder appropriately sits at the "heart" of a market that is essentially limited to himself. He is far and away the top center fielder available on the open market and positioned as the top accessible option of any type in center if the Marlins ultimately decide against trading Christian Yelich. With the Cubs, Rangers, Brewers, Mets and Giants all having clear needs to address at his position, no matter how long things play out this winter, Cain is still lined up for a nice payday.

Eric Hosmer: While the Red Sox, who were long-rumored to be a perfect fit for Hosmer, ultimately passed on him in favor of reuniting with Mitch Moreland, the top infielder on the open seas will still benefit from the slow movement in free agency. With the San Diego Padres looking for a cornerstone to build around and the Royals very much interested in keeping him as the face of their transitioning roster, Hosmer is very much in demand and has a specifically niche market of smaller-market clubs willing to break the bank for him. His services are so coveted, he's rumored to have netted a pair of offers upward of seven years.

If neither of those scenarios wet his whistle enough, the remaining option of signing with a bigger spender that could issue him shorter yet still comparably lucrative deal is out there. The Cardinals and Mets are among teams that are said to have their eyes on Hosmer’s services as well.

Addison Reed: Uniquely positioned as the top setup man and an experienced closer (125 career saves), Reed can fit in with virtually any team in need of late relief help in all forms. What truly benefits him the most, however, is Wade Davis setting the market ahead of him with his lucrative $52 million deal in Colorado — along with Greg Holland still dangling out on the open market as a likely more expensive option. Reed stands to cash in making closer-level money, even if he remains slotted earlier out of the bullpen.

Teams


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Miami Marlins: As they have for the entirety of the offseason, the Marlins hold significant keys in determining the direction of the offseason. Christian Yelich and J.T. Realmuto represent alluring options for many teams looking to upgrade their outfield and catching scenarios. With luxury tax threshold worries and the superior talent of Yelich as major drawing cards, the Marlins can continue to make their winter work for their long-term plans — for better or worse.

St. Louis Cardinals: John Mozeliak and company have been among the most aggressive teams in the game this winter, showing an uncharacteristic level of push in revamping a misfit roster that missed out of the postseason for a second consecutive season.

While the pre-New Year’s additions of Marcell Ozuna, Luke Gregerson and Miles Mikolas made an impact, the length of hot stove season combined with likelihood of a vastly improved price point for many free agents could play heavily into the Cardinals' favor over the next month. The historically cost-conscious Cards could see any number of needed quantities dip into their financial comfort zone, with Arrieta, Holland, Hosmer and Reed all potentially becoming players who land with the club. St. Louis is determined to narrow the gap between itself and the Cubs, so the Cardinals could be far from done.

Texas Rangers: While GM Jon Daniels has been averse to making significant expenditures this winter, he still faces a roster that needs upgrades in both center field and on the mound. Luckily enough, he could be in position to land some significant presences in both of those capacities as the winter drags on.

Longtime ace Yu Darvish (who remains a Dallas-Fort Worth resident in the offseason) remains on the open market and could potentially return to a commitment level that Texas its comfortable with. Likewise, if the club ultimately decides against writing a big check for Cain, it could net yet another returning presence at a friendly rate in Carlos Gomez, who could be in line for a one-year deal after an uninspiring stay on the open market.

Washington Nationals: The team that could ultimately emerge as the winner of the winter is Washington, who must love how the forecast is setting up in its favor. No stranger to having patience pay off in their favor in the past — back in 2015, Max Scherzer joined the club on Jan. 21 — Mike Rizzo and Nats management also are not afraid to make a big offer to bring talent aboard.

Couple that with their good relationship with Scott Boras — and need to amplify their roster as much as possible ahead of attempting to keep his prize client (as well as their star player) Bryce Harper interested in returning — and the Nats could emerge as a dark horse for all marquee free agents looking for homes.

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