In part one, we took a look at the Twins pitching staff, which was one of the worst in baseball last season. The team’s inability to strike people out, combined with a terrible year from Francisco Liriano led to Minnesota producing the second worst team ERA (4.60) in baseball in 2011. I’m one of those people who will argue to the grave that pitching is what helps teams win baseball games. Everyone likes to watch people hit home runs. I get that. But pitching is what wins championships. However, I’m about to be hypocritical. The main reason the Twins lost 99 games last season was not because of their pitching. It was because several of their key position players were out for extended time with various injuries. When those players in question were on their field, they did not perform up to their career standards.
It’s pretty obvious who we’re going to start off with. Yes, it’s the hometown hero with the $184 million contract. Joe Mauer drew the ire of Twins fans after missing more than two months last season. After undergoing arthroscopic knee surgery in December 2010, Mauer was placed on the disabled list on April 15th, due to “bilateral leg weakness” there were several opinions floating around that Mauer did not work hard enough during spring training to ensure a full recovery from the procedure. Overall in 82 games last season, Mauer hit .287/.360/.368 with three home runs and 30 RBI over 333 plate appearances. His .319 wOBA was the lowest of his career by a wide margin. His strikeout rate (11.4 K%) was above his career norms and his walk rate (9.6 BB%) was more than 2% below his career average.
Mauer played his last game of the season on September 14th before being shut down with pneumonia. While he has gone on the record saying that he feels great and is in much better shape than last season, his health remains somewhat of a question mark. It is possible that Twins manager Ron Gardenhire will decide to have Mauer DH more frequently than in the past in order to take some stress off his knees. Mauer played right field for one game last season and also made sixteen starts at first base. Regardless of what position he is playing, Mauer needs to stay in the lineup and put up the kind of numbers we are used to seeing from him in order for Minnesota to have a prayer of contending. While the best-case scenario for the Twins is to have that production come while Mauer is catching, they might have to get creative if his health starts to become an issue again.
One of the reasons Mauer spent a bunch of time at first base last season was because the Twins regular first baseman was having injury problems of his own. In fact, Justin Morneau hasn’t been healthy since July 7, 2010. That night Morneau sustained a concussion after sliding into John McDonald’s knee in Toronto. Morneau had gotten off to one of the best starts to a season in his career, hitting .345/.437/.618 in 348 plate appearances over 81 games. While those numbers only represent half a season of production, Morneau’s .447 wOBA would have easily been the highest of his career and he was seemingly unaffected by the unfriendly hitting environment of his new home ballpark, Target Field. While Morneau looked to be on his way to another MVP award, it was not to be. He did not play another game in all of 2010, due to post concussion syndrome.
2011 was a lost season for Morneau. He had surgeries on his neck, left wrist, left knee and right foot. In 288 plate appearances over 69 games, Morneau hit .227/.285/.333 with just four home runs and 30 RBI. He played his last game of the season on August 28th, after diving for a ball and injuring his shoulder. The shoulder wasn’t the main problem though – the way Morneau landed resulted in his concussion symptoms resurfacing. As the offseason has gone along Morneau has said that he is feeling good, but still does not know how his head will respond to full fledged workouts in Spring Training.
If both Mauer and Morneau can return to their previous levels of production, Minnesota will once again have one of the deadliest 3-4 combinations in all of baseball. Morneau is making $14 million in each of the next two seasons and the Twins would surely like to see some return on their investment. However, concussions are not simple and Morneau still might not be completely healthy by the time Spring Training comes around. There is still hope though, that Morneau can make a full recovery and return to being a force in the middle of the Twins lineup.
Justin Morneau was not the only Twins player who dealt with concussion issues last season. Denard Span, Minnesota’s centerfielder, was limited to just 70 games this season, due to problems stemming from a concussion he sustained on June 3rd. Span rushed back and was activated from the disabled list in August, only to be shelved once again when his symptoms returned. Overall in 311 plate appearances, Span hit .264/.328/.359. Although Span produced a similar line to that in a healthy 2010, those numbers are still a notch below his career totals of .285/.347/.372.
Now that Josh Willingham will be the Twins everyday right fielder, the team needs someone to cover a lot of ground in center. Enter Span, who was once touted as the best defensive outfielder in the Twins system by Baseball America. Despite his small sample size from last season, Span’s UZR was 9.0, which is quite good. Obviously there are flaws to both UZR and using last season as a barometer, but Span has posted very solid UZR scores in three of his four seasons as a big league regular. If Span can show that he has fully recovered from his concussion issues, his presence at the top of the lineup combined with his defensive value will prove to once again be an asset for the Twins in 2012.
Ben Revere was not supposed to spend as much time with the Twins as he did last season. He had yet to play a full season at AAA and the Twins outfield was full with Span in center and a combination of Jason Kubel, Michael Cuddyer and Delmon Young manning the corners. However, Span, Kubel, Young and reserve outfielder Jason Repko all spent time on the disabled list last season, necessitating Revere’s promotion. Revere was called up at beginning of May, when Repko went down with a quad injury. He got sent back down on May 22nd, but it was not for long and Revere returned on June 2nd, when Kubel went down with a foot sprain. Initially, Revere filled in at right and left field while Span was still healthy, but once Span went down with his concussion issues Revere became the Twins everyday centerfielder. He finished the season with a .267/.310/.309 line with 34 stolen bases in 481 plate appearances over 117 games.
Revere will enter 2012 as the Twins starting left fielder. Despite the fact that Span is the incumbent in center, it would not be surprising if the two players swapped positions at some point during the season. The simple reason for that is Revere’s speed. Revere ran down balls left and right last season and posted a UZR of 10. He subsequently held the top play on SportsCenter for what seemed like weeks, when he made a ridiculous catch against the wall and robbed Vladimir Guerrero of an extra base hit. From an offensive standpoint, Revere also makes more sense in center than Span does. While neither player boasts extraordinary power, Span is less of a slap hitter than Revere is and profiles slightly better in a corner. The argument for Span to stick in center would be that he has the better arm of the two players. Regardless of where he plays, Minnesota is hoping that Revere can build on his solid September, when he hit .311/.342/.368 with 9 stolen bases. If he can continue to be a threat on the bases and play superb defense, Revere will be a key contributor to the Twins this season.
Tsuyoshi Nishioka was signed last season to a 3 year $9 million contract to be Minnesota’s second baseman. The Twins won the rights to negotiate with Nishioka after spending $5 million on a posting fee. In 2010, Nishioka led the NPB with 206 hits and a .346 batting average. While he was not expected to replicate those numbers while stateside, the Twins were counting on Nishioka as a major part of their infield last season. Those plans changed quickly though, when Nishioka’s left fibula was broken by Yankees outfielder Nick Swisher on a slide into second base. Nishioka returned in the middle of June and struggled throughout the rest of the season, before being shut down early with a strained oblique. Overall, Nishioka hit a disappointing .226/.278/.249 in 240 plate appearances over 68 games.
Nishioka has nowhere to play in 2012. Alexi Casilla will enter camp as the Twins second baseman and free agent acquisition Jamey Carroll will be the team’s shortstop. However, since Carroll will turn 38 in February and Casilla has never played more than 98 games in a major league season, Nishioka is a safe bet to receive a solid amount of playing time this year. There still remains a large question of what Nishioka is capable of producing. He clearly did not perform up to expectations last season, but that can be chalked up to a freak injury. If the Twins can get something like .275/.330/.355, out of him, they would probably be ecstatic. For what it’s worth, Bill James projects Nishioka to hit .241/.298/.269 in 2012. Only time will tell what Nishioka can really do, because he still remains somewhat of an unknown commodity.
Danny Valencia led the big leagues in games started at third base last season with 146. Valencia stormed onto the scene in 2010 and hit .311//.351/.448 in 322 plate appearances and finished third in the American League Rookie of the Year voting. Valencia took a bit of a step back in his first full season in the big leagues last year, hitting .246/.294/.383 with 15 home runs and 72 RBI in 608 plate appearances. Valencia’s OPS+ was just 86 and his WAR was just 0.5. While the Twins would probably be happy if Valencia can put up those power numbers again, he needs to improve his .294 OBP. Valencia hit .309/.352/.470 vs. lefties and .224/.274/.352 vs. righties last season. He will need to improve upon those splits in order to prevent the dreaded “platoon player” tag from being slapped on him.
Since the Twins were riddled with injuries last season and we’re not sure if everyone affected will be able to rebound, some backup players are worth mentioning. Ryan Doumit was brought in to serve as the designated hitter, but he will probably see some time in right field, first base and behind the plate. While the Twins are probably hoping he does not spend much time in the field, it would not be surprising to see Doumit out there more often than not. Mauer’s backup, Drew Butera, hit .167/.210/.239 in 254 plate appearances. It’s safe to say that the Twins want his bat in the lineup as infrequently as possible.
Lastly, the Twins have two prospects who could be significant contributors next season. Chris Parmelee, ranked the Twins #9 prospect by Baseball America this year, hit .355/.443/.592 in 88 plate appearances with the Twins in September while filling in for Justin Morneau. Parmelee represents a solid in-house option to replace Morneau if his concussion issues continue to persist next season. However, Parmelee’s .597 OPS at AA against lefthanders is some cause for concern. Joe Benson, who has followed a similar career path to Parmelee, is someone who could also be a contributor to the Twins next season. Ranked the Twins #2 prospect by Baseball America, Benson did not enjoy the same success as Parmelee during September, as he hit just .239/.270/.352 in 74 plate appearances. Benson, who is touted as a five tool player, could easily slide into any of the three outfield positions should someone get hurt. While they were called up in September, both Parmelee and Benson have yet to spend any time at AAA, so barring an injury from one of the Twins regulars, expect them both to head to Rochester once Spring Training ends.
When I started writing this article, the Tigers hadn’t signed Prince Fielder. Now that they have, any chances of the Twins contending just got smaller. The bottom line is this: Justin Morneau and especially Joe Mauer need to be healthy for the Twins to have any sort of chance next season. Rarely do playoff caliber teams have as a precipitous decline as the Minnesota Twins did in 2011. While their chances of winning the American League Central next season are rather remote, it would be unwise to completely write off the Twins in 2012.
-Cohen
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