Originally posted on Brewers Bar  |  Last updated 4/10/13
Mlb-brewers-cubs-apr
(Photo: Ben Rouse) The Brewers win on Monday got pretty hairy in the ninth inning, when the Cubs scored two runs and ultimately stranded the bases loaded.  Alfonso Soriano scored the first run, and was in scoring position thanks to defensive indifference by the Brewers with nobody out.  In hindsight, it seems like the Brewers might have saved themselves (and their fans) a little stress by holding the runner at first. It made me wonder if anyone has done a cost-benefit analysis of defensive indifference.  I came across this data from Baseball Prospectus that shows defensive indifference sharply increased from the mid-90’s to the mid-00’s. Surely, teams would not practice defensive indifference if they thought it could cost them a game, but it contributed to the Brewers nearly giving up the lead on Monday.  At the very least, defensive indifference with no outs would appear to reduce the likelihood of a win in certain circumstances.  The best info I have been able to find with some cursory online searching is in this 2011 blog post by author and statistician Tom Tango.  He says if a team is down by two runs in the bottom of the ninth with one out, with a runner on second base, the chance of a win is .129.  In the same situation but with two outs, the win expectancy is .052.  Tango’s conclusion: “So, defensive indifference with 2 outs is fine.  With 1 out?  Not really.” With no outs and a four-run lead?  Based on Monday’s outcome, it doesn’t seem like a stretch to say defensive indifference in that case was imprudent.
GET THE YARDBARKER APP:
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45
MORE FROM YARDBARKER

WATCH: Birthday boy Aaron Judge homers and makes spectacular catch at Fenway

Warriors invite members of ‘We Believe’ team to playoff game

Emmanuel Sanders says Paxton Lynch no longer has ‘deer in headlights’ look

Report: Adrian Beltre not close to return to Rangers

Report: Emails suggest no foul play in Eli Manning memorabilia case

LIKE WHAT YOU SEE?
GET THE DAILY NEWSLETTER:

Rockets owner Leslie Alexander fined $100,000 for confronting official

Genie Bouchard: Maria Sharapova is ‘cheater,’ should be banned for life

Marshawn Lynch confirms he has joined the Raiders

Browns’ Joe Thomas: ‘I’m already seeing memory loss’

Westbrook hasn’t ‘even thought about’ contract extension

Pirates call up Gift Ngoepe, first MLB player from African continent

The 'Bonehead blunder that watered down the 1931 AL home run crown' quiz

Draft prospects we're most excited to see in the NFL

Stanley Cup Playoffs: The West is full of surprises

Box Score 4/26: NFL Draft eve

Everything you need for the 2017 NFL Draft

The 10 best sports docs available for streaming

The 'QB or not QB? That is the question' quiz

How the Astros are following the Cubs' blueprint to the top

NBA Referee Hotline Bling: Paul Millsap needs a twin phone

Perfect matches: Handpicking players for certain teams in the 2017 NFL Draft

NFL Draft do-overs we'd most like to see

NFL Draft X-factor players you may have missed during their college careers

MLB News
Delivered to your inbox
You'll also receive Yardbarker's daily Top 10, featuring the best sports stories from around the web. Customize your newsletter to get articles on your favorite sports and teams. And the best part? It's free!

By clicking "Sign Me Up", you have read and agreed to the Fox Sports Digital Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. You can opt out at any time. For more information, please see our Privacy Policy.
the YARDBARKER app
Get it now!
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45

The 'Bonehead blunder that watered down the 1931 AL home run crown' quiz

Draft prospects we're most excited to see in the NFL

Stanley Cup Playoffs: The West is full of surprises

Everything you need for the 2017 NFL Draft

The 10 best sports docs available for streaming

How the Astros are following the Cubs' blueprint to the top

The 'QB or not QB? That is the question' quiz

NBA Referee Hotline Bling: Paul Millsap needs a twin phone

Perfect matches: Handpicking players for certain teams in the 2017 NFL Draft

NFL Draft do-overs we'd most like to see

Today's Best Stuff
For Publishers
Company Info
Help
Follow Yardbarker