Found November 28, 2012 on NESN.com:
There are few slam dunks when projecting the major league careers of prospects. Although MLB teams horde prospects because of the necessity of having cost-controlled players producing while they’re in their prime years, really it’s a numbers game. Teams understand that projecting prospects is, essentially, a war of attrition, and even player’s labeled as “can’t miss” do just that far more often than not. Even someone like Justin Upton, who by most accounts has been a disappointment for the Diamondbacks, is considered a success insofar as he’s a viable, relatively productive major league regular. But it’s exactly this kind of thinking that means it’s rarely advisable for a team to give up a known quantity for prospects unless there are overriding financial considerations, or a team is waving a white flag on the season. By the same token, it’s that train of thought that should give many people pause when they hear the rumors linking Jon Lester to the Kansas City Royals and the Red Sox...
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