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The Red Sox? What you see is what you get. Maybe even for a couple of years.
Hamstrung by some bad luck and even worse contracts, the Red Sox find themselves pressed against the $178 million luxury tax threshold like a skater who just went through the ice, and if their goal truly is to drop below next year’s same figure, don’t be surprised if the 2013 offseason plays out much like this one — a lot of tinkering around the fringes.
That’s a scary proposition for a club that wasn’t good enough to make the playoffs in 2010 or 2011, and now basically returns intact, except for what projects to be at least a slight downgrade at closer from Jonathan Papelbon[stats] to Andrew Bailey.
Herald | Sox stuck with roster
Tomase goes on to do the dirty work of looking at the contracts that are indeed hamstringing us. We've talked about it here before: the construction of the roster doesn't look good. There's a lot of talent, but for all this money there are a lot of holes and little flexibility.
There's something to be said for exploring if any of the kids are ready to call up. Despite their struggles in the big leagues, Michael Bowden and Felix Doubront need to be major focuses of spring training, just to see if we have anything with either (I'm a little doubtful at this point, but whatever).
We already know Ryan Kalish and Lavarnway are here soon, although both have impediments. Kalish needs to get healthy, and by the sound of it, Lavarnway needs a little more seasoning as a catcher. (Plus we have Salty, who's relatively young and cheap anyway.)
Then there's the matter of number 1 prospect Will Middlebrooks. Most speculation I've seen pegs him for a call-up some time this year, and probably assuming the full-time third base gig in 2013. I wouldn't be opposed to giving him a long look during spring training, and if he seems even close, moving Youkilis for prospects or pitching. We all love Youk, but with Youk you're only getting 120 games anyway. He's not getting younger, and I don't see Cherington committing to him long term.
And then looming on the horizon is what to do with Jacoby Ellsbury. He's in the process of getting expensive (his salary made a big jump to $8 million this year). He's got one more year of arbitration and then has free agency (and a contract somewhere in the area of Carl Crawford to Matt Kemp) waiting for him. He's a Boras client, so there's no locking him up now. I'll discuss the ins and outs of an Ellsbury trade in a future post (and it probably will be as good an idea as my trade Buchholz post from a couple years ago).
It all comes down to this: We have some significant financial commitments to several players over the course of multiple years. The lack of sustainability is to blame for the relatively quiet offseason we've seen, and the only way to regain the sustainability is to lose some of these deals. Some of it will happen naturally -- roughly $40 million of Daisuke, Youk, Jenks, and Ortiz should expire after this year -- but the same was said this year and that money was essentially eaten up by arbitration raises and roster filling. What we need is to fill some of these slots with home-grown players.
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