MMA Holiday Mailbag

How did you not give Tito the 2nd Round?Takedowns are the most difficult area for a judge to score. In my opinion, what happens after the takedown should play a major role in how it's scored. For example, if a fighter takes his opponent down, does not land any strikes or work for a submission, then allows him to get back to his feet or is swept within a minute, I feel like it should be a negative scoring item. 99.9% of takedowns do not hurt the guy who lands on his back. It's all about control and if you cannot maintain it or do any damage, you should not be rewarded. In the 2nd Round, Ortiz scored an early takedown that resulted in hardly any strikes. Near the end, he scored another takedown, landed some elbows (opened a cut), before Griffin swept him and ended the round with some strikes of his own. My analysis is that Griffin's sweep negates the first takedown by Ortiz (both netted the guy on top some partially blocked strikes). This leaves Ortiz's second takedown with the elbows against Griffin's stand-up work. I still see it as an even round. No way Koscheck got hit in the eye. He faked it.There's no way he was tired. It was three minutes into the 1st Round and Koscheck is not known to gas. I also don't see a reason for him to regroup. The fight was even at that point. From what I saw, Johnson's knee drove Koscheck's arm into his eye (There was also a secondary strike which partially landed. After it hits his arm, the knee keeps going and connects with his face.). I don't think Koscheck had any idea what actually happened. All he knew was that Johnson's knee came flying at his face then his eye hurt. Getting hit in the eye is like getting hit in the balls. Even a minor shot feels like the end of the world. There isn't a mirror for him to look into. For all he knew, his eyeball was sucked inside his skull. Overall, I don't even think it matters whether it fully or partially landed. Johnson threw a knee to the head of a downed opponent and it hit something. Luckily, Koscheck had his arm up, but it's still a knee aimed at the head. Unless Koscheck's head suddenly disappeared, it was going to end with a timeout and a point deduction. Why is Phil Baroni in the UFC?After Saturday night's event, I received more emails about Baroni not belonging in the UFC than any other topic. It stunned me. I don't get it. Every fighter does not have to be a title contender. Accept Baroni for what he is and don't expect him to be anything else. The guy puts on exciting fights and I hope he sticks around in the UFC for a long time. Match him up with any of the following and it's instant entertainment - Chris Lytle, Marcus Davis, Matt Brown, and of course Matt Serra. I'd watch a ten part pre-fight special with Baroni and Serra going back and forth about who's the toughest guy in Long Island. Can UFC 108 be salvaged?The UFC is at a point where even their tape delayed international PPVs do 350K buys. Evans/Silva on top of the current card will bring in 400K. The real problem will be ticket sales. Last weekend in Vegas, they handed out 3,898 complimentary tickets worth over $2 million. Unless something unexpected happens, UFC 108 (also in Vegas) will surpass that total. Are you watching this season of The Ultimate Fighter? It's horrible.Yes, and I agree. Here's the problem. Most of these fighters have no business being Heavyweights. They're out of shape Light Heavyweights and that's why they run out of gas in 2-3 minutes. The total disregard for conditioning has ruined the fights. The smaller cast members came into the show with extra weight on their frames, because they thought they needed to "bulk up". The strategy hasn't worked. Dana White overhyped the season. Yes, it received tremendous ratings, but that's not necessarily a good thing when millions of viewers see a glorified Toughman competition.Is there anything you like about this season? Marcus Jones, Kimbo, Rashad's rental cars, and Brendan Schaub. I believe Schaub is a legit fighter and will have a solid UFC career. He's the only cast member I see evolving and becoming a threat. The other guys just don't have it. You can see it right away. Roy Nelson has had a successful career, but he's not making noise in the UFC with his grappling and pitter patter punches. Schaub has the size, he's with a great camp, and he's still young. Marcus Jones seems talented enough, however, his size and age will work against him. Making it in MMA requires a body that can handle the stress of constant training. He's too big, too old, and already been through too much. Jose Aldo would kill BJ Penn!!!Every time a WEC fighter gets a big win, they're proclaimed the best thing since Royce Gracie. I think Aldo is great, but lets wait until he defends the title a few times before we place him in the company of fighters like Anderson Silva and Georges St-Pierre. I was never totally sold on Brown, either. He's a solid fighter with a vicious punch. I still believe Faber wins the second fight, if his hand stays in one piece. Anyways, Aldo is exciting and has the potential to be special. He still has a long way to go, though, before he's in the Best Fighter on the Planet discussion.What's going on with Dan Henderson? He's holding out for the best possible deal. Henderson is 39 years old with decades of athletic wear and tear on his body. This is his chance to cash in and he's not rushing things. I expect him back with the UFC. Does Cheick Kongo have any chance at all?His odds of winning get better with each passing day. Let me explain. A month ago, Frank Mir found himself buried under several fighters in the Heavyweight Title picture. Then injuries hit Lesnar (digestive system exploded), Carwin (elected for knee surgery), and Nogueira (I say we assume Nog has staph all the time until proven otherwise.). Suddenly Mir is a hot commodity. A win over Kongo and he's back in the hunt. Mir enters the Kongo fight looking ahead to his next fight. This fight has trap written all over it. Not only will Mir be looking ahead to his next opponent, but he's also facing someone with true knockout power. Mir isn't known for having a granite chin. He's also quite proud of his improved striking. It's not a stretch for him to walk into a right hand and wake up moments later on the mat. Will any of the UFC fighters managed by Ed Soares lose in 2010? This was my favorite question of past six months. The short answer is "Yes". Anderson Silva Upcoming Bouts: As Middleweight Champion, he's set to defend against Vitor Belfort in early 2010. Beyond that, he could face any number of opponents including Nate Marquardt, Dan Henderson, Georges St-Pierre, or someone from the Light Heavyweight Division. His 2010 should be very exciting to watch and feature his toughest set of opponents since joining the UFC. Chances of Losing: Slim. Going into the fight with Forrest Griffin, his aura was lacking. Well, he embarrassed a former Light Heavyweight Champion and in the process regained his Intimidation Factor. There just aren't that many fighters out there who can match his speed and power. Belfort probably can for three minutes, but beyond that I'm skeptical. The other possible opponents each have their flaws. Marquardt and Henderson already lost to Silva in devastating fashion. St-Pierre would be facing a much bigger opponent and fighting at a higher weight class for the first time in his career. One scenario I can see happening is Silva fighting for the Light Heavyweight Title, if Mauricio Rua defeats Lyoto Machida at UFC 113. Rua is big and fast enough to give Silva some problems. I'd love to see it happen. That said, Silva has other options in 2010 and a possible fight with Rua probably wouldn't happen (if at all) until 2011. Lyoto Machida Upcoming Bouts: Machida will defend his (Rua's) Light Heavyweight Title against Mauricio Rua at UFC 113 in May. A win over Rua would set Machida up for possible bouts with contenders like Thiago Silva, Rashad Evans, or Randy Couture. Yes, the pickings are that slim at 205 lbs right now. Chances of Losing: The rematch with Rua should favor Machida. He's had a chance to reflect on Rua's leg/body kick strategy and we should see some adjustments. The backlash against the decision also works in Machida's favor because even though he won, he didn't receive any of the usual victory praise. He should not have any problems finding motivation for the second match-up. With a win, he'd then be looking at a possible rematch with Silva or Evans. He made both look foolish, so I believe the UFC would much rather book him to face Randy Couture (if Couture takes care of Mark Coleman in February). I don't see Machida having any problems with Couture. He'd liquidfy Couture's internal organs with kicks. Would not be pretty. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira Upcoming Bouts: Big Nog will hopefully face Cain Velasquez at UFC 109 or 110. That's plan, unless he gets staph, again. A win over Velasquez and Nogueira next fight would be for the Heavyweight Title against Lesnar/Carwin. Chances of Losing: Velasquez is a major test. In a three round fight, I can see him grinding out a decision over Nogueira. It's certainly not a slamdunk because Nogueira is capable of submitting anyone at anytime. If it was a 25 minute fight, I'd favor Nogueira. For the sake of this argument, lets say Nogueira defeats Velasquez. His next fight would be for the title in some form. Either against the winner of Lesnar/Carwin, or against Carwin for the Interim Title. Lesnar poses more problems. He fought Frank Mir twice and the second time around it was obvious he learned a great deal about defending submissions. I don't think Carwin is ready to defeat a legend like Nogueira. He'd take Carwin into the deep water and drowned him. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira Upcoming Bouts: Unknown, although it should be someone well known like Franklin, Jardine, Jones/Hamill, Coleman, Ortiz, or Griffin. The tricky thing about Little Nog, is that he's fighting in a division where the champion is a friend/training partner. He's not fighting Machida and the UFC has to be careful about giving him too much of a push. At the same time, they'd be nuts to hold him back. Chances of Losing: I think he defeats any of the fighters listed above. Jardine could give him problems, because of his unique style. The others don't strike me as a risky bouts. Junior Dos Santos Upcoming Bouts: Things are up in the air. It appears the UFC will reschedule his bout with Gabriel Gonzaga, rather than finding a replacement opponent. Dos Santos has been impressive, but Gonzaga is not Fabricio Werdum or Mirko Cro Cop. He's one of the top Heavyweights in the world and will be Dos Santos' biggest test to date. Chances of Losing: The Gonzaga fight is a coin toss. Anything after that would be against the best the UFC has to offer (Velasquez, Carwin, Mir, Lesnar). Dos Santos has a rough year ahead of him.