Preview and Predictions for UFC on FOX 5: Henderson vs. Diaz

Henderson and Diaz fight in the main event of UFC on FOX 5The fight card for “UFC on FOX 5: Henderson vs. Diaz” is the best that they’ve put together in a long time.  I can’t remember the last event they’ve had with four fights big enough to be worth putting on a poster.  Maybe they are returning to their old ways, or maybe they’ve learned a terrible lesson from balancing huge events on one fight and then suffering huge losses when one fighter gets hurt and they have no backup plan at all.  For this show, there could’ve been six terrible car accidents and they still would’ve had a fight worth calling a main event.Ben Henderson vs. Nate DiazNeither Henderson nor Diaz use a lot of strategy. Instead, they just fight using their own tools without much concern for their opponents’ skills.  This time, however, it just so happens that Hendersons strengths are Diaz’ weaknesses. The Diaz brothers really don’t deal well with being kicked, for example.  Carlos Condit proved that when he beat Nick Diaz by kicking and running away.  Donald Cerrone was out-kicking Nate Diaz when they fought and could’ve used the same cowardly game-plan to win but chose to box with Diaz instead and lost a decision because of it. Ben Henderson is a black belt in taekwondo and kicks like an enraged ostrich.  That is not good for Diaz.  Neither is the fact that Henderson is an amazing wrestler and impossible to submit. Anyone who saw his fight with Cerrone knows that.  Henderson was in deep chokes and armlocks again and again but casually slipped out each time.  I honestly wonder if he has bones or circulating blood like the rest of us.  My bet: Henderson by decision.BJ Penn vs. Rory MacDonaldBJ Penn used to be in the same “pound for pound” ranking as Georges St. Pierre and Anderson Silva.  He was one of the very best on Earth.  Now that he is older, people aren’t including him on that list and he’s mad about that. For this fight, he’s saying he’s going to show people what he’s capable of.  What he fails to understand though is that there’s a big difference between what he is able to do these days and what he was able to do back in the day.  Cutting to 155lbs for example.  He can’t do that anymore. Now he’s back at 170lbs and facing an opponent who is in his prime and at his proper weight.  Penn is still an amazing fighter and a living legend but he is on his way out whether he wants to admit it or not while MacDonald is on his way in. My bet: MacDonald by TKO. Mauricio “Shogun” Rua vs. Alexander GustafssonPenn hasn’t had a wake-up call to welcome him to the new generation of fighters but Rua has.  The beating that Jon Jones gave him was the start of his retirement, or at least the end of his career as a legitimate threat to the title. Now he is relegated to the same category as Rich Franklin and Penn along with everyone else who the fans love although they’ll never wear the belt again. Here, Gustafsson has a chance to step into the role of top contender and the UFC wants him to win because nobody wants to see Rua fight Jon Jones again, including Rua.  My bet: Gustafsson by decision.Mike Swick vs. Matt BrownBelieve it or not, Swick was one of the guys on the very first “Ultimate Fighter” and had his first UFC fight in 2005.  That same year was Brown’s first-ever MMA fight and he didn’t make it into the octagon for another three years.  Even though they are almost both the same age, it feels like Swick is a grisly old veteran and Brown is still a hungry young up-and-comer.  Swick will probably win as he has more experience fighting higher-level and more highly-skilled guys but it doesn’t matter because the line-up for a shot at the belt at 170 is like rush-hour traffic and nobody is moving anywhere.  My bet: Swick by TKO.