Preview for UFC 154: St. Pierre vs. Condit

Georges St. Pierre will face Carlos Condit at UFC 154Last week, Rich Franklin and Cung Le fought like they had nothing to lose … and they didn’t.  They weren’t fighting for a shot at the title or even for a step up in the rankings, assuming that rankings even exist anymore.  It was a fight for the sheer entertainment of the fans and they both knew it.  Sure, Franklin got knocked out in the first round but does that effect his career?  Not a bit.  The UFC will keep giving him big fights as long as he isn’t slurring his words and wetting his pants, but he’ll never get another shot at the title. This week, Georges St. Pierre and Carlos Condit step into the octagon under entirely different circumstances.  This fight matters.  Sure, both of them have belts, but we all know that the one Condit has may as well be made out of tin foil and paper maché for all that it is worth.  St. Pierre is the real champion and wants to keep it that way, while Condit wants just the opposite.  Neither of them care if the fight will be entertaining. If you doubt that, just take a look at their paths to the top.  St. Pierre has been criticized again and again for his lack of finishes.  While Condit has one of the highest finishing rates in the UFC, his last fight against Nick Diaz was like a demonstration of women’s self-defence.  Again and again, he kicked Diaz and ran away, keeping out of range so Diaz couldn’t use his boxing. It was like watching the Ultimate Fleeing Championships. Will that same strategy work on St. Pierre?  Absolutely not.  It’s hard enough to stop St. Pierre from taking you down even when you have both feet on the ground.  Kicking him means doing half the work for him.  You might as well gift-wrap your leg and before you give it to him. Let’s not forget that St. Pierre is coming back from a long layoff because of a knee injury so his takedowns might not be as unstoppable as before.  Even if they are who is to say that St. Pierre even wants to take Condit down? It doesn’t mean you’re out of danger as Condit has just as many wins by submission as he has by knockout. Sometimes, Condit catches people before his back even hits the mat.  With this in mind, St. Pierre might not even want to shoot on “The Natural Born Killer” even if his knee is fine.  Let’s not forget that in his last two fights, St. Pierre kept the match on the feet and turned his opponents’ faces into something out of the Walking Dead. Really, St. Pierre will probably want to take Condit down and grind out a win in the same way he has many times before.  Can Condit submit him from his guard?  Probably not. I saw footage earlier this week of Condit training with Caio Terra who is a world champion in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu but has never had an MMA fight in his life and specializes in moves that work really well as long as someone is not punching you in the face.  GSP, however is working on his submissions with John Danaher, who also has never had an MMA fight but has been St. Pierre’s jiu jitsu coach for a long time and understands the difference in sport jiu jitsu and jiu jitsu for mixed martial arts where slippery people are smashing your  face in with elbows. Condit’s best bet is to try as hard as he can to keep the fight standing and look to set up the same flying knee he used to knock out Dong Hyun Kim. GSP’s best bet is to use his jab to set up takedowns and smash Condit’s face with elbows on the ground.Who wins?  My bet is St. Pierre.  He has beaten dangerous strikers before as well as fighters with better jiu jitsu and better submission skills.  Unless his knee is a problem, he will keep his belt.