FIO Preview: Golden State Warriors

2008-2009 Golden State Warriors season preview and fantasy impact, courtesy of Fantasy Insider Online. Read the team preview here in the Yard, and then visit the FIO link for the rest. - Zach Harper Last Season Recap: The Good, The Bad, & The Ugly The Golden State Warriors had arguably the most frustrating season in NBA history last year. They battled minor injuries, coaching uncertainty, and a Chris Webber comeback attempt, and still won 48 games. The problem is that the Western Conference was so unbelievably stacked with good teams that even their 48 wins couldn't get the Warriors into the playoffs. Golden State benefited from a healthy Baron Davis, a relatively mature Stephen Jackson and the stellar play of Monta Ellis, but still couldn't beat out the Denver Nuggets for that eighth and final playoff spot. Their chance to make more noise in the playoffs as the team that nobody wanted to face was destroyed and they were sent back to the lottery for the 13th time in 14 seasons. The Warriors really had a heck of a season to follow up an auspicious run through the playoffs that gave them all kinds of confidence as a team. They had three players (Baron Davis, Monta Ellis, Stephen Jackson) score over 20 points per game. They led the entire NBA in scoring with a preposterous 111.0 points per game. Davis had the best season of his career by averaging 21.8 points, 7.6 assists, and 2.3 steals per ball game. Ellis played so well coming off of the previous season, in which he won the NBA's Most Improved Player Award, that he finished 15th in voting for the same award. He averaged 20.2 points per game on 53% shooting from the field. Jackson started the year with a seven-game suspension and came back to ignite the Warriors to a 46-27 record with him in the lineup (he missed two games because of injury). Jackson averaged 20.1 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 4.3 assists per game. The Warriors played great at the Oracle Arena with a 27-14 home record and even had a winning record on the road (21-20). Unfortunately, they were caught in the wrong NBA season not winning 50 games in the West. Probably the main reason the Warriors didn't make the playoffs was because of that Stephen Jackson suspension to start the season. The Warriors missed his disruptive defensive presence and his backbreaking three-point shooting, which led to their starting the season 1-6. With him, perhaps they could have gone 4-3, which would have given them 51 wins and a playoff berth. The Warriors also suffered from down years by key members of the team. Al Harrington had an awful year, averaging just 13.6 points on 43.4% shooting. He was often a non-factor in many games. Matt Barnes and Mickael Pietrus were also playing through down years. Barnes gave the Warriors 6.7 points per game on 42.3% shooting and Pietrus wasn't much better with 7.2 points on 43.9% shooting. Don Nelson also didn't seem to be a guarantee for most of the season. There were rumors that he wasn't going to come back to the team before the season started, and he didn't coach with the same passion as the playoff run during the previous season. And of course, there was the Chris Webber comeback. C-Webb simply didn't have the legs or the conditioning to be a significant player anymore, which was more painful to watch than anything. 2008 Draft Impact (Below Average) Much like last year's draft, there won't be much of an impact this year with the current philosophy of the team, but in the near future, the players taken could bring back great returns on Chris Mullin's investment. The Warriors drafted Anthony Randolph out of LSU with the 14th pick in the first round. Anthony Randolph has unbelievable skills with the ball considering his height (think Shawn Marion with Stephen Jackson's handle). He has incredible leaping ability and is good at attacking the glass. He can step back and hit a jump shot and is a good one-on-one player. He's way too skinny though and will need to put on muscle (much like Brandan Wright last year). Randolph should be able to play small forward someday with Wright and Biedrins manning the painted area. That could form the lankiest frontcourt in NBA history. In the second round of the draft, the Warriors decided to add some muscle with Richard Hendrix, the 49th player taken. Hendrix runs about 6'9" and 260 lbs. The strength of his game is his physical on the court. He's a pretty good rebounder and a solid post presence in the block. Hendrix is arguably the most intense player in the 2008 Draft and plays both ends of the floor with great tenacity. He could easily be this year's version of Paul Millsap or this year's version of Gary Trent. He isn't very quick and doesn't run the floor real well. Hendrix should end up being a nice backup in this league. Off-Season Impact Moves When Baron Davis decided to take fewer dollars this year to gain long-term security somewhere else, the Warriors were thrown into a world that they hadn't known since they traded for Baron Davis two years prior. The Warriors were once again without a legitimate star and leader in this league while engaged in a desperate attempt to create a new one. The Warriors went out to sign Corey Maggette despite the fact that they employ over half of the wing players in the NBA. His five-year, $55 million contract means that he's going to have to have a career year and mesh well with Stephen Jackson (who now wants a contract extension). Maggette is a really talented scorer in this league and should thrive in Don Nelson's system. But Nelson's system might not even make it through the entire season. He won't want to coach another bad team and this roster doesn't exactly scream playoffs. The Warriors also re-signed two of their most important young players. They gave Monta Ellis six years and $67 million to be the face of this franchise. They want Ellis to be their point guard of the future despite his being much better utilized as a shooting guard. They also re-signed Andris Biedrins to a six-year, $62 million to be their center of the future despite the fact that he's never played more than 29.0 minutes per game in a season. Biedrins is a very talented rebounder and doesn't try to do too much on offense. He could actually end up being one of the better centers in the league within five years, but he'll have to develop a lot more moves in the post to do so. This kind of wheeling and dealing is nothing new to Chris Mullin, who has been ridiculed for giving guys like Adonal Foyle, Mike Dunleavy, and Troy Murphy huge contracts that make these players overpaid. The Warriors are going to have to win with this young core of players over the next few years to make these contracts acceptable. One final move that proved to be much needed was trading a future first round draft pick to the New Jersey Nets for young point guard Marcus Williams. Williams was being groomed to take over for Jason Kidd before the Nets traded Kidd to Dallas for Devin Harris. Golden State was happy to take Williams off of New Jersey's hands. With the Monta Ellis moped injury that will keep him out for at least a quarter of the year, Williams now becomes the most likely starting point guard candidate and the only steady hand at the point that they employ. Preview for the 2008-2009 Season Team MVP: Stephen Jackson, SG - Stephen Jackson proved his worth in this system last season when the team went 2-7 without him, which ultimately cost Golden State a spot in the playoffs. Captain Jack is now the best player on this team and a guy with everything to prove. He doesn't like that he won't be seeing a dime of all the new money going to teammates this year. He wants a contract extension and I believe he will set out to prove that he is deserving of one. You can pencil in Jackson for 20 points, 5 rebounds, and 5 assists, but I don't know that it will lead to much team success. Breakout Player: Marcus Williams, PG - Marcus Williams has long been a point guard with tremendous skill and the mindset of Lenny Cooke (Google him). Marcus Williams should be a really good point guard in this league based on his ability, but Rod Strickland was supposed to be a Hall of Fame player based on his. Williams will be the only viable option at point guard for a couple of months and will have ample opportunities to prove he belongs in a starting lineup. I think he can have a great year in this up-tempo system and bring close to 8.5 assists per game before Ellis comes back to the team. That should be enough to prove that Ellis should be starting next to Williams and not in front of him. Bust Player: Monta Ellis, G - It's hard to imagine that Ellis is going to have a good season under these circumstances. His ankle injury is pretty serious and definitely not something that will be easy to get over. I would be shocked if he played at full strength before 2009. I'd also be shocked if he doesn't have a subsequent injury once he initially returns that makes him miss close to another month. Monta Ellis should not try to justify his contract this year and should take it extremely slowly so that he's healthy going into the following season. If he doesn't, he may end up going down the Grant Hill road instead. Playoff Contender or Pretender? I find it hard to believe that a team can replace Baron Davis with Corey Maggette and improve on last year's performance. Throw in the fact that Monta Ellis could miss one-third of the season and it looks like it's back to the Todd Fuller dark days in Oakland. This is a team with talent and no leader, and that often leads to turmoil and too many guys going for their own stats. With Nellie on his way out and the Western Conference as strong as it is, this team looks like the definition of a pretender. This is troubling because just 15 months ago, the Warriors looked like they could be ready to usher in a new era of Golden Stat basketball that was to be feared and never taken lightly. This team will still score a ton of points, assuming Don Nelson doesn't quit by March and leave for "medical reasons." But they couldn't play defense last year, and without their best ballhawk in Baron Davis guarding the top of the key, they could give up close to 115 points per game as a team. This team needs Monta Ellis to come back healthy and for the young big men to mature quickly. They need Marcus Williams to take a stranglehold on the point guard position and force the team to put efficient scorers around his passing ability. Unfortunately, this team doesn't have the weapons to put around a a player who isn't Baron Davis. Golden State could still win 40 games this year, but that will not be enough in this conference.