Fantasy NBA: Injury Comebacks

One of the worst things to happen to your fantasy (or real life) team is a significant injury to one of your top players. Last year, these key players missed over half the season. I listed them in order of my current perceived value. If you're a risk taker, some of them could be great bargains, but be aware as some of them may end up rotting on your bench. Here's some of the latest news and what you can do about it on draft day. Gilbert Arenas (knee surgery, 2 GP) - Arenas is a former first round, 29-6-3.5-2.5 trey-1.7 steal bonified stud. Agent Zero did have great difficulty returning last year, but reports say he is looking very good this summer. He's working out with miracle-worker Tim Grover, who helped Dwyane Wade to 78 gp last year, and has worked out the best of the best in the past. Twitters and scouting reports from people such as Rick Kamla, Lebron James, Andre Iguodala, and his teammate Caron Butler were very positive. If you can draft him after the 2nd, you're probably in good shape, and you probably won't see him drop further than the 4th. There's still a decent bit of risk, but the reward is huge. "He's almost back," said [Lebron] James, who was in Chicago on the first stop of his promotional tour. "He's about, probably, in the high 90s. I'll say that. He's good. He's good. He's good. He should be happy that he's back on track. No limping, no nothing. We played a lot of games, too. Worked out. It was good." "He gets to wherever he wants to get on the court," [Head Coach] Saunders said. "His quickness is back. If you walked into the gym, you wouldn't know he was hurt." Elton Brand (shoulder surgery, 29 GP) - Elton Brand is also a former first round stud. He was almost a lock for 20-10-2 blocks-steal for 9 years straight, until he was derailed by an Achilles injury 2 years ago. Last year, he struggled on a new team, before he finally shut it down with a shoulder injury. He supposedly looks pretty good, and has full stability and range of motion. His original timetable was 6 months from February, so he's right on track. He should also be targeted in the 3rd or 4th, but the risk is relatively low and a 2nd could be well justified. "He's really ready to play," [Team President] Stefanski said. "He'd be playing now (if we had games). Every candidate I interviewed was ecstatic and excited about coaching Elton Brand." "I think Elton has forgotten about that after the shoulder surgery," Stefanski said. "I talked to him last week and he said, 'I don't think about that at all, now.' He feels great." Carlos Boozer (knee surgery, 37 GP) - Boozer looked great after his surgery, finishing the regular season and playoffs. He played the final 25 out of 26 regular season games, averaging over 32.5 mpg in the last 22. He took a bit of extra time recuperating, but when he came back, he immediately started and went back to 20-10 production. His draft stock is dropping a bit, because he publicly demanded to be traded multiple times, but his health is no longer a concern. He should still be in rounds 3-5. His playoff stats over 5 gp were 37 mpg, 20-13 on 53/77. Monta Ellis (ankle surgery, 25 GP) - Monta should be ready to go. He was better than ever in March and didn't seem to lose a step, which is great, because one of his best strengths is his quickness. He was re-injured (jammed, sore, bone bruise) a couple times nearing the end of the season, but nothing was really significant and the extra rest probably helped him. There have been no follow-up news articles on more serious diagnoses, so, draft him with relative confidence. He'll also easily go in the top half of the draft. Post-ASB, he played 38 mpg, nearly 24-5-5-2 steals with 48/86 for 14 games. Michael Redd (knee surgery, 33 GP) - Redd may be ready to go. He tore his ACL and MCL and had to get his first-ever surgery. Initial timeframes gave 6 months from March, which is right about now. So far, he's running, but not playing basketball. Expectations are good, but news is very quiet for the Bucks' franchise player. Redd isn't a late 2nd round or easy 3rd round pick anymore. He is efficient, but isn't dominating, and there's enough depth at SG that you can let him drop a bit in the draft. Look for him in the middle of the draft if you don't find guys with more upside. "I have complete confidence he's going to come back 100%, as does Michael," [Bucks GM] Hammond said. Redd said he is pointing to a successful return and is not concerned about any long-term effects. "The doctors have told me that absolutely I will be able to come back stronger than I was before, if I rehab the proper way," Redd said. Andrew Bogut (lower back sress fracture, 36 GP) - Bogut is questionable. The lower back is important for big men, and stress fractures aren't freak injuries, so there's some potential for re-injury. He's got great upside in a year where their best offensive option is also recovering from an injury and where they really don't have a clear #2 or any other offensive help. Also, remember, he was picked 1st overall for a reason. However, he's not even doing full contact practices, and his comments about needing to review after starting full contact are some cause for concern. He should be worth the gamble around the 100 mark with the other mid-pack centers, and could easily outproduce all of them if healthy. Bump him up for a roto league, where you can easily rotate him out for no cost for a bench player. Bogut said, "If I'm ready to go then, obviously the goal will be achieved. We'll re-evaluate it all throughout September. Once I get to contact, it's a different story. I haven't done contact yet, and I'm not sure how far off, whether it's two weeks or four weeks. Chris Kaman (plantar fasciitis, 31 GP) - Kaman looked decent last year, but feet problems are bad for big men with probable re-injury. He returned and played out the end of the season, so the biggest concern is that he just didn't play all that well, posting per 36 averages of about 15-10-1.5 blocks. The year before that, his breakout year, he posted nearly 16-13-3 blocks, so, either that breakout was a fluke, or he's still not in tip top shape. Also, he's played less than 65 games in 3 out of his 6 seasons, with 2 of those being the most recent seasons. Either way, there's some risk, and he should fall outside the top 100 picks. Post-ASB, in 16 gp, with 4 games missed out of the final 20, he averaged 10-6 in 22.5 mpg, which improved to 12-9-2 blocks in 27 mpg in the final 5. Mike Dunleavy (knee surgery, minor arthroscopic hip surgery, 18 GP) - Jr. is questionable. His initial timeframe was halfway through next season, sometime in January, and he's reportedly way ahead of that schedule. However, this was a serious injury that could've been career-ending and has bothered him and was left basically untreated for a handful of years now. Proceed with caution, especially in H2H leagues, and only take him after there are no more upside players. "Our medical people are very pleased with his progression," [Head Coach] O'Brien said. "I've changed my view point to a pessimistic one from a standpoint of him being ready in the middle of the season to one that I'm hoping he'll be ready to go for game one." "Things are going well, but we still have 10 weeks to go and a lot can happen between now and then," Dunleavy said. "But my goal is to get back as soon as possible." Tracy McGrady (knee surgery, 35 GP) - Next to Arenas, TMac is the next highest risk, highest reward. His peak was a 32-6.5-5.5-2.3 trey-1.7 steal-0.8 block season, and just 2 seasons ago he was at 22-5-6-1.3 trey-steal-0.5 block. However, TMac is very questionable. Microfracture is serious and usually takes 12-16 months to recover, and he has a bad injury history (no more than 75 games in the past 7 seasons). He initially and still has no timetable, but he is working out with Grover and the surgery was all the way back in Feb. He could fall all the way to the last round or few of a H2H draft, and could provide top 75 numbers. If you're in a roto league, target him as soon as you're set with your other needs, and just be careful of his percentages (43.6 and 74.9 career). [Rockets GM] Morey seemed determined to be cautious about expecting too much, too soon, but when pressed about how he thought McGrady looked, he said, "More or less, I would have to say, very good. "He's way, way ahead of schedule," Morey said. "He's already playing. I don't think anyone could have predicted he would be playing now. He still has a long way to go. There is a lot of rust to shake off." McGrady has been working with Grover and physical therapist David Reavy for weeks trying to get himself back into playing shape. Reavy is so convinced of the progress that he suggested recently that the Rockets superstar could be ready to go by October 1 and back in the lineup when the season starts, a recovery plan that would have him healthy weeks in advance of the average patient. To discuss this article further, to ask any questions, or to raise any concerns, please reference the original publication of this article at http://rotokingdom.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=67694