The general rule in the NBA goes that if you stand pat in the off-season, you're not going anywhere in the regular season. For those who need evidence of that, take a look at the 2006-07 Miami Heat, who went from world champions to swept out of the first round by the same team that spanked them by 42 on opening night. The following teams (for the most part) did not do the same this summer, and the players further below likewise are heading into the new season with new situations and some with new zip codes as well.
FIVE TEAMS TO WATCH IN 2007-08
1. BOSTON CELTICS - Duh. For those just coming out of a coma (and somehow decided they needed to read this blog before all other things, thanks!), they now have Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen teaming with Paul Pierce. That's three perennial All-Stars and at least one future first-ballot Hall of Famer. If they filled the rest of the roster with guys from the local YMCA (which they might have to, given the salaries of their Big 3), they'd still make the Eastern Conference Playoffs. This goes Double Duh if they manage to get Miller Time out of the booth.
2. HOUSTON ROCKETS - Before the KG trade, the Rockets were the hottest team of the summer. With all respect to Chuck Hayes, they finally filled their PF spot with Luis Scola, arguably the best player in Europe the past few years. I realize people said the same when they got Stromile Swift two years ago (minus the best player in Europe part), but people were still banking on Swift's potential while Scola is a proven commodity. And anyway Swift helped them get Shane Battier, so that didn't turn out so badly either.
Then Houston got Mike James and Steve Francis (more on him later) to fill the backcourt. I don't know what that means for Luther Head, who has been commendable the last two years, but Rafer Alston and his aggravated assault and public intoxication charges are probably on their way out of town. With Bonzi Wells also apparently on board and Rick Adelman at the helm, this team is now expected to finally get out of the first round, but I wouldn't be surprised if they also ended up being the team coming out of the West. Oh yeah, they still have Tracy McGrady and that really tall Chinese guy, too. I heard they're pretty good.
3. PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS ? The new young team to watch, kind of like Orlando last year, except even better on paper and hopefully much better in action. They shipped out all the old heads (except Raef LaFrentz's unmovable contract and Darius Miles's unmovable knees) and built this team entirely on very huge potential. They have three F/C's capable of dropping a 20/10 with LaMarcus Aldridge, Channing Frye, and Greg Oden (plus an absolute steal in Josh McRoberts with the 37th pick). They have a magic backcourt with Sergio Rodriguez (though he'll probably play behind both Steve Blake and Jarrett Jack for now) and Brandon Roy. And they have two kids with sky high ceilings to man the 3-spot with Travis Outlaw and Martell Webster.
Also, unlike Blazers teams of the past, this team is all class. You'd be hard-pressed to find a better young guy to lead your team right now than Brandon Roy, and future of the franchise Greg Oden is straight Tim Duncan when it comes to both talent and humility. Given Oden's amazing one-year run to the NCAA Finals, I'm predicting Portland knocks off Denver, Golden State, or the Lakers for one of the final playoff spots.
4. CHICAGO BULLS ? They didn't make as many dramatic changes as the teams above, and it's actually starting to look unlikely that they'll be able to get that big post player they desperately need. KG is in Boston, Pau Gasol looks like he won't leaving Memphis with his best friend now joining the team, and Indiana will not be sending Jermaine O'Neal to a divisional rival when he seems pretty intent on joining either the Lakers or Nets. They probably did the right thing drafting on talent instead of need, but they may regret having Joakim Noah instead of Spencer Hawes when they once again find themselves unable to get any points within 5-10 feet of the basket in May. Unless you believe never-was Joe Smith or won't-make-the-team Aaron Gray is the answer to that. Still, they have a fantastic core of players, Luol Deng and Tyrus Thomas are both on their way to becoming All-Stars, and Noah is perfect insurance for Ben Wallace. I know it's an imprecise statement, but they really are one move away from NBA champions.
5. PHILADELPHIA 76ERS ? My sleeper team this year. Last year after they traded Allen Iverson to Denver for Andre Miller and spare parts, they were 5-18 and looked like the worst team in the entire NBA. Instead, Andre Iguodala busted out and they played .500 ball with the new squad, being one of the few teams with no hope that nevertheless did not tank their games. Thaddeus Young is a freak athlete and Jason Smith is a gamer, but other than drafting those two and the surprising development of Louis Williams (fantasy sleeper alert), they haven't done very much in the off-season. They once again look like the worst team in the Eastern Conference. So expect them to make a push for the playoffs. Yeah, I basically have them down so I can be the only person who says, "I told you so!"
HONORABLE MENTIONS:
MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES ? Sam Mitchell is so lucky he got Coach of the Year, because Toronto wanted Marc Iavaroni bad. Memphis has him and the athletic talent to run his style.
ATLANTA HAWKS ? Those kids are developing fast! People have Charlotte ranked ahead of them because they have Jason Richardson now? I would take Joe Johnson and Atlanta's talent over the Bobcats any day.
PHOENIX SUNS ? Steve Nash has incredibly defied biology and gotten better every single year in Phoenix, but at some point, age must catch up to him. If the Suns fizzle out in the Western Conference Finals for the fourth time in a row, they're going to really regret (even more) selling away Sergio Rodriguez and Rajon Rondo last year when they would've been fantastic understudies to Nash.
DALLAS MAVERICKS ? It's time for redemption.
FIVE PLAYERS OR DUOS TO WATCH IN 2007-08
1. GREG ODEN & KEVIN DURANT ? Okay. Next.
2. AL JEFFERSON ? One of my favorite nerdy things to do last year was to compare Jefferson's stats to Dwight Howard's, who many have already coronated the next dominant big man of the NBA. Quite honestly, they were pretty on par after January, with Howard getting the edge in rebounds and blocks and Jefferson getting a big edge in scoring. Now that Jefferson is on a team where he'll actually be the #1 option, I'm looking for a Jermaine O'Neal-like Most Improved Player season but with more points (or a Zach Randolph-like MIP season but with more blocks). His name definitely belongs up there with guys like Amare Stoudemire, Howard, and Bosh now.
3. STEVE FRANCIS ? He developed such a bad reputation that Portland didn't even want to take the chance of letting him meet Brandon Roy or Greg Oden. This guy used to be Stevie Franchise! He was a 3-time All-Star. The problem is he let all that go to his head, but I think all that time being third or fourth banana in New York really taught him a few things about humility. A lot of fans say Houston is taking two steps backwards letting Francis back into their locker room, but I think he's coming back a man reborn. He knows he doesn't need to be the franchise star here. We all know T-Mac and Yao will be consistently great (except T-Mac's FG%), but Francis will be the key to how far they go in the playoffs.
4. EDDY CURRY & ZACH RANDOLPH ? Both these guys had breakout/comeback seasons last year. They became the dominant low-post scorers most teams in the league would kill for. And that's all the good news. They're both total black holes with no concept of how to pass out of the post. They both play zero defense that involves more than standing on the block and taking up space. They both are size 50DD's. Now they play together. I kind of wish New York still had Francis with Stephon Marbury so they'd have two overpaid guys who do the same exact thing and have the same exact problems in both the frontcourt and backcourt (still lots of love to Starbury for all his off-court enterprises though).
5. MARVIN WILLIAMS ? Chris Paul takes all the glory for the draft class of 2005, and deservedly so, but Williams went a long way last year toward becoming the player many people thought he would be. They have a solid core with Josh's Smith & Childress and Joe Johnson, and they had a great draft filling their biggest needs with Al Horford and A.C. Law 4. But Marvin Williams is on the cusp. He will likely break through before the Hawks break into the playoffs.
HONORABLE MENTIONS:
BRANDAN WRIGHT ? Remember when people thought he was the 3rd best player in the draft?
SUMMER LEAGUE STANDOUTS ? Louis Williams, Ty Thomas, Marco Bellinelli, will they make a difference or end up like Randy Foye last year? I'll tell you who still won't make a difference: Nate Robinson and J.J. Redick.
ROBERT SWIFT ? Had a lot of promise before an injury took him out for the whole year last preseason. Robbed us of his new shaggy hair and way too many tattoos for skin that pale look.
DARKO MILICIC ? 3 teams in 3 years. People still have hope for this guy? Will he ever be good?
YI JIANLIAN ? I'm already guaranteeing he plays in Milwaukee and will be better than Darko and Nikoloz Tskchikawhatever. But will he be better than Charlie Villanueva?
RAYMOND FELTON & SEAN MAY ? Very disappointing sophomore seasons, but this UNC duo is what can make the Bobcats good. Them, and suckering someone into trading for Adam Morrison.
FIVE TEAMS TO WATCH IN 2007-08
1. BOSTON CELTICS - Duh. For those just coming out of a coma (and somehow decided they needed to read this blog before all other things, thanks!), they now have Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen teaming with Paul Pierce. That's three perennial All-Stars and at least one future first-ballot Hall of Famer. If they filled the rest of the roster with guys from the local YMCA (which they might have to, given the salaries of their Big 3), they'd still make the Eastern Conference Playoffs. This goes Double Duh if they manage to get Miller Time out of the booth.
2. HOUSTON ROCKETS - Before the KG trade, the Rockets were the hottest team of the summer. With all respect to Chuck Hayes, they finally filled their PF spot with Luis Scola, arguably the best player in Europe the past few years. I realize people said the same when they got Stromile Swift two years ago (minus the best player in Europe part), but people were still banking on Swift's potential while Scola is a proven commodity. And anyway Swift helped them get Shane Battier, so that didn't turn out so badly either.
Then Houston got Mike James and Steve Francis (more on him later) to fill the backcourt. I don't know what that means for Luther Head, who has been commendable the last two years, but Rafer Alston and his aggravated assault and public intoxication charges are probably on their way out of town. With Bonzi Wells also apparently on board and Rick Adelman at the helm, this team is now expected to finally get out of the first round, but I wouldn't be surprised if they also ended up being the team coming out of the West. Oh yeah, they still have Tracy McGrady and that really tall Chinese guy, too. I heard they're pretty good.
3. PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS ? The new young team to watch, kind of like Orlando last year, except even better on paper and hopefully much better in action. They shipped out all the old heads (except Raef LaFrentz's unmovable contract and Darius Miles's unmovable knees) and built this team entirely on very huge potential. They have three F/C's capable of dropping a 20/10 with LaMarcus Aldridge, Channing Frye, and Greg Oden (plus an absolute steal in Josh McRoberts with the 37th pick). They have a magic backcourt with Sergio Rodriguez (though he'll probably play behind both Steve Blake and Jarrett Jack for now) and Brandon Roy. And they have two kids with sky high ceilings to man the 3-spot with Travis Outlaw and Martell Webster.
Also, unlike Blazers teams of the past, this team is all class. You'd be hard-pressed to find a better young guy to lead your team right now than Brandon Roy, and future of the franchise Greg Oden is straight Tim Duncan when it comes to both talent and humility. Given Oden's amazing one-year run to the NCAA Finals, I'm predicting Portland knocks off Denver, Golden State, or the Lakers for one of the final playoff spots.
4. CHICAGO BULLS ? They didn't make as many dramatic changes as the teams above, and it's actually starting to look unlikely that they'll be able to get that big post player they desperately need. KG is in Boston, Pau Gasol looks like he won't leaving Memphis with his best friend now joining the team, and Indiana will not be sending Jermaine O'Neal to a divisional rival when he seems pretty intent on joining either the Lakers or Nets. They probably did the right thing drafting on talent instead of need, but they may regret having Joakim Noah instead of Spencer Hawes when they once again find themselves unable to get any points within 5-10 feet of the basket in May. Unless you believe never-was Joe Smith or won't-make-the-team Aaron Gray is the answer to that. Still, they have a fantastic core of players, Luol Deng and Tyrus Thomas are both on their way to becoming All-Stars, and Noah is perfect insurance for Ben Wallace. I know it's an imprecise statement, but they really are one move away from NBA champions.
5. PHILADELPHIA 76ERS ? My sleeper team this year. Last year after they traded Allen Iverson to Denver for Andre Miller and spare parts, they were 5-18 and looked like the worst team in the entire NBA. Instead, Andre Iguodala busted out and they played .500 ball with the new squad, being one of the few teams with no hope that nevertheless did not tank their games. Thaddeus Young is a freak athlete and Jason Smith is a gamer, but other than drafting those two and the surprising development of Louis Williams (fantasy sleeper alert), they haven't done very much in the off-season. They once again look like the worst team in the Eastern Conference. So expect them to make a push for the playoffs. Yeah, I basically have them down so I can be the only person who says, "I told you so!"
HONORABLE MENTIONS:
MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES ? Sam Mitchell is so lucky he got Coach of the Year, because Toronto wanted Marc Iavaroni bad. Memphis has him and the athletic talent to run his style.
ATLANTA HAWKS ? Those kids are developing fast! People have Charlotte ranked ahead of them because they have Jason Richardson now? I would take Joe Johnson and Atlanta's talent over the Bobcats any day.
PHOENIX SUNS ? Steve Nash has incredibly defied biology and gotten better every single year in Phoenix, but at some point, age must catch up to him. If the Suns fizzle out in the Western Conference Finals for the fourth time in a row, they're going to really regret (even more) selling away Sergio Rodriguez and Rajon Rondo last year when they would've been fantastic understudies to Nash.
DALLAS MAVERICKS ? It's time for redemption.
FIVE PLAYERS OR DUOS TO WATCH IN 2007-08
1. GREG ODEN & KEVIN DURANT ? Okay. Next.
2. AL JEFFERSON ? One of my favorite nerdy things to do last year was to compare Jefferson's stats to Dwight Howard's, who many have already coronated the next dominant big man of the NBA. Quite honestly, they were pretty on par after January, with Howard getting the edge in rebounds and blocks and Jefferson getting a big edge in scoring. Now that Jefferson is on a team where he'll actually be the #1 option, I'm looking for a Jermaine O'Neal-like Most Improved Player season but with more points (or a Zach Randolph-like MIP season but with more blocks). His name definitely belongs up there with guys like Amare Stoudemire, Howard, and Bosh now.
3. STEVE FRANCIS ? He developed such a bad reputation that Portland didn't even want to take the chance of letting him meet Brandon Roy or Greg Oden. This guy used to be Stevie Franchise! He was a 3-time All-Star. The problem is he let all that go to his head, but I think all that time being third or fourth banana in New York really taught him a few things about humility. A lot of fans say Houston is taking two steps backwards letting Francis back into their locker room, but I think he's coming back a man reborn. He knows he doesn't need to be the franchise star here. We all know T-Mac and Yao will be consistently great (except T-Mac's FG%), but Francis will be the key to how far they go in the playoffs.
4. EDDY CURRY & ZACH RANDOLPH ? Both these guys had breakout/comeback seasons last year. They became the dominant low-post scorers most teams in the league would kill for. And that's all the good news. They're both total black holes with no concept of how to pass out of the post. They both play zero defense that involves more than standing on the block and taking up space. They both are size 50DD's. Now they play together. I kind of wish New York still had Francis with Stephon Marbury so they'd have two overpaid guys who do the same exact thing and have the same exact problems in both the frontcourt and backcourt (still lots of love to Starbury for all his off-court enterprises though).
5. MARVIN WILLIAMS ? Chris Paul takes all the glory for the draft class of 2005, and deservedly so, but Williams went a long way last year toward becoming the player many people thought he would be. They have a solid core with Josh's Smith & Childress and Joe Johnson, and they had a great draft filling their biggest needs with Al Horford and A.C. Law 4. But Marvin Williams is on the cusp. He will likely break through before the Hawks break into the playoffs.
HONORABLE MENTIONS:
BRANDAN WRIGHT ? Remember when people thought he was the 3rd best player in the draft?
SUMMER LEAGUE STANDOUTS ? Louis Williams, Ty Thomas, Marco Bellinelli, will they make a difference or end up like Randy Foye last year? I'll tell you who still won't make a difference: Nate Robinson and J.J. Redick.
ROBERT SWIFT ? Had a lot of promise before an injury took him out for the whole year last preseason. Robbed us of his new shaggy hair and way too many tattoos for skin that pale look.
DARKO MILICIC ? 3 teams in 3 years. People still have hope for this guy? Will he ever be good?
YI JIANLIAN ? I'm already guaranteeing he plays in Milwaukee and will be better than Darko and Nikoloz Tskchikawhatever. But will he be better than Charlie Villanueva?
RAYMOND FELTON & SEAN MAY ? Very disappointing sophomore seasons, but this UNC duo is what can make the Bobcats good. Them, and suckering someone into trading for Adam Morrison.
