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• SnitchinBubs said April 30, 2008

  Like most statistical pursuits, you must apply a heavier weight to the most recent results and a lighter weight to past results. After what went down in New York, it is amazing that LB can still find a team to coach. The man is old, stubborn, and a live wire who can become disinterested at any moment and force his team to cut bait with a lot of $$ still on the table. On the other hand, he knows the game and could probably turn a good talented team into a winner - I truly believe that his days as a turnaround guy are over. I'll gladly eat my words if I'm wrong.
  
  On the other hand,

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  • JohnPaulsen replied April 30, 2008

    So you're saying only weight the Knicks performance higher? In his two previous jobs, he led the Pistons to a title and the Sixers to 49 wins three years after he took over a 22-60 team. A year later, they were in the Finals.
    
    In statistics, you throw out the aberrations (outliers), and I think the Knicks job, with all its external factors, qualifies as an aberration.
    
    He can be flaky, but if he has the support of management, he can turn a loser into a winner in three or four years.
• SnitchinBubs said April 30, 2008

  You do have to take his last job into account, no? The Pistons team was already a champoinship caliber team (made it to NBA Finals prior year) - he took them over the hump, which I will say is what he can likely do today. It has been a long time since the Sixer days. I don't believe LB has that type of rabbit in his hat for Charlotte.
  
  Hard to argue that the odds are against him succeeding, no? The consequence of MJ being wrong is that he will have to pay LB a large sum of money for nothing (as the Sixers, Pistons and Knicks did) Come to think of it, MJ is seldom right as it is. I'm not saying it is impossible that the Bobcats are a contender in 4 years, but I'd bet pretty hard against it.

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• SnitchinBubs said April 30, 2008

  err - The Pistons were in the conf. finals prior year - the point remains that LB can probably take a good team over the hump but is very unrealistic to expect a turnaround

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• JohnPaulsen said April 30, 2008

  He took five losers (and one .500 Indiana team) and had at least one 52+ win season with each of them. The odds are against any coach turning a loser into a winner, but Brown has proved that he's one of the best in the league at it. All of your criticisms seem to be about the Knicks job, and it's my belief that it should be considered (i.e. Brown is not a good under the microscope with a bad roster and bad management), but it's not the crux of his career.
  
  The bottom line is that if he can turn the Bobcats into one of the better defensive teams in the East, a winning record isn't far off.

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• SnitchinBubs said April 30, 2008

  We will have to agree to disagree that LB is not the same coach at age 70 as he was at age 50 or 60.

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• JohnPaulsen said April 30, 2008

  I agree that he's probably isn't the same coach, but that doesn't mean he doesn't have the will or the energy to turn the Bobcats around. I think we disagree on his chances of doing so.
  
  He's 67, by the way. He'll be 68 in September.

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• SnitchinBubs said April 30, 2008

  i know - he'll be 70 by the time he should be leading the Bobcats to glory.

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• JohnPaulsen said May 01, 2008

  That'll be right on schedule.

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