FIO Preview: Orlando Magic

2008-2009 Orlando Magic season preview and fantasy impact, courtesy of Fantasy Insider Online. Read the team preview here in the Yard, and then visit the FIO link for the rest. - Zach Harper Last Season Recap: The Good, The Bad, & The Ugly Two years ago, the Orlando Magic were the talk of November for being an overachieving team with a young budding superstar manning the middle of the paint. Unfortunately, they fell back to earth after November and eventually ended up being a 40-42 team. Last season, the Orlando Magic were 14-4 after November and looking like the same thing might befall them. Instead of falling back to earth, though, the Magic constantly proved they were a legit team in the Eastern Conference and one that would have to be feared instead of ignored. What was the difference between those two teams? The 2007-2008 Orlando Magic were a good road team -- a really good road team. The Magic, led by their own version of the "Big Three" (Dwight Howard, Hedo Turkoglu, and Rashard Lewis), tied for the second best road record in the NBA with a 27-14 mark away from the land of Epcot and screaming, ungrateful kids. Dwight Howard finally began to realize his potential, Hedo Turkoglu was the Most Improved Player, and Rashard Lewis made enough threes to almost justify his enormous six-year, $118 million contract. The Magic won 52 games for the first time since Shaquille O'Neal patrolled the Magic Kingdom. They won a first round match-up in the playoffs with the Raptors before losing in the second round to Detroit. The key to the Orlando Magic breaking out of the gates and ahead of most of the Eastern Conference teams was their not falling apart in December after having a strong November. And nothing helped the Magic more during those two months than the absurdly great play of Dwight Howard. Howard had his two highest scoring (24.3, 21.7) and rebounding (15.2, 16.1) averages during November and December. He also shot (read: dunked) over 60% from the field during this time. Hedo Turkoglu emerged as the second best player on this team by averaging 19.5 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 5.0 assists for the season and often was the catalyst for the Orlando success. The newest and biggest free agent acquisition for the Magic was Rashard Lewis, and he played extremely well during his first year in Disneyworld. Lewis gave the Magic 18.2 points per game and finished third in the NBA in three-pointers made (226). Orlando was sixth in the league in scoring thanks to connecting on a league-high 801 three-pointers as a team. When the Magic made it to the playoffs, they handled a battered Toronto Raptors team in five games thanks to three "Hugh Downs" games by Dwight Howard in which he had 20-20 efforts (points, rebounds). The team wasn't so lucky in the second round as it was handled by the Detroit Pistons but still had its most successful season in over 10 years. What went wrong for the Magic was the fact that it wasn't a very deep team. The early trade of Trevor Ariza to the Lakers for Brian Cook and Maurice Evans was key in adding a little depth to the team, but they were still left with sub-par role players. The point guard trio of Jameer Nelson, Keyon Dooling, and Carlos Arroyo didn't kill the Magic, but also was never an advantage against opponents. The Magic had zero depth in the paint with Tony Battie out for the year and Adonal Foyle being Adonal Foyle on far too many occasions. Keith Bogans and Maurice Evans tried to fill the reliable shooting guard void, but could rarely put together a consistent stretch of games. Despite having the league's leading rebounder, the Magic were just 12th in rebounding (tied with Boston) and 16th in rebounding differential. In the playoffs, Orlando was stymied by Detroit's suffocating defense and averaged just 90.2 points per game. They could rarely come up with key stops or key buckets for most of the series and were eliminated in five games. 2008 Draft Impact (Average) The Orlando Magic drafted one of my favorite sleepers from the 2008 NBA Draft in Courtney Lee from Western Kentucky. Lee reminds me a lot of Kevin Martin's skill set, but with Kirk Snyder's frame. Lee can score from anywhere on the court and has a great stroke from three-point range. He has a very strong upper body and is able to absorb contact around the basket before finishing the play. The issues with Courtney Lee are that he's a little short at 6'5" to be an NBA shooting guard and he hasn't proven himself against the top college competition. Western Kentucky didn't exactly play in the ACC this season, and even though he helped lead them deep into the NCAA Tournament, a lot of teams still had their doubts about him. I think he will take time to adjust to the NBA and may not get regular playing time with the Magic in a playoff hunt. But he should be the third shooting guard on the depth chart, behind Mickael Pietrus and Keith Bogans and ahead of JJ Redick. Off-Season Impact Moves Since the Orlando Magic are over the salary cap and unable to make major moves for the next couple of offseasons, all they can really do is switch out their role player free agents with comparable guys from around the league. The Magic didn't tinker with their core group and decided that changing out some minor parts would be enough to keep the franchise moving forward towards title contention. The Magic re-signed Adonal Foyle to a multi-year contract and brought in Dwayne Jones from Cleveland. Jones fills their need for another big body, and Foyle is sticking around to provide the "I can't believe he just dunked on three guys" face to Dwight Howard's latest highlights. With Tony Battie back from a serious shoulder injury, the Magic needed some insurance big men in case of a major setback for their returning center. The Magic also allowed some backcourt players from their bench to move on to new venues and replaced them with similar role players. The Magic said goodbye to Keyon Dooling (who was signed and traded to the Nets), Maurice Evans (signed with Atlanta), and Carlos Arroyo (who signed to play in Israel), and welcomed in Anthony Johnson (from Sacramento) and Mickael Pietrus (from Golden State). Johnson will serve as a reliable backup point guard to Jameer Nelson and provide a steady hand with respect to running the offense. He's a solid defender and a decent scoring option when called upon. Pietrus will be the new "freak" athlete on the team who vies for a starting spot and is asked to knock down open jumpers. Pietrus has never been a reliable shooter, but has the ability to attack the basket and play stellar defense when focused. Preview for the 2008-2009 Season Team MVP: Dwight Howard, C - Even though Hedo Turkoglu appeared to be the spark for this team during crucial wins, you almost have to pick Dwight Howard here to be the most valuable player that Orlando has. He has the potential to dominate games in the paint like Shaquille O'Neal used to do. Howard led the NBA in rebounding last year and apparently dunks (why is this a stat?). If he can figure out a go-to move that makes him a reliable scorer, then Howard can carry this team to 55 wins and a Conference Finals appearance this summer. Breakout Player: Mickael Pietrus, SG - It's hard to say that I truly believe in this pick because I have very little faith in Pietrus to become a fully competent basketball player who consistently starts in this league. But with so few players on this team actually breaking out this year (I wanted to pick Courtney Lee, but I don't think he'll get consistent minutes), Pietrus seems like the only possible choice here. The key to Pietrus' success will be his ability to knock down three-pointers. Orlando took the second-most attempts in the NBA last season and will take even more this year. Pietrus could become a very underrated weapon if he hits his shots and plays stellar defense. Bust Player: Rashard Lewis, SF - Rashard Lewis has long been a player who has underperformed (compared to his perceived potential) and is now a player who is slightly underperforming while having one of the highest-paying contracts in the NBA. Lewis does two things really well -- knock down three-pointers and score from mid-range. What the Magic really need him to do this year is crash the boards and grab at least 8 rebounds per game. Lewis has never been a very tough player and never will be, but if he cannot give the Magic more than a $20 million per year perimeter shooter, then he won't be giving the team what it needs to be a contender. Playoff Contender or Pretender? Because the Magic are going to win around 50 games and should win their division this season, the team is technically a contending team. They do have a potent offense that can overwhelm opponents with three-point barrages and monstrous dunks from Dwight Howard. Hedo Turkoglu seems capable of carrying the team for key games, but if he's double-teamed or smothered by the defense, then Orlando doesn't have a playmaker who can take over ball games. Jameer Nelson and Anthony Johnson are decent table-setters but don't have the ability or the mentality to take over key games and open up the floor for everybody else. The only way to counter this is to get some consistent low post scoring from either Dwight Howard or Rashard Lewis. Lewis really only goes to the post when a smaller defender is switched to guard him. He has the skill and the fade-away jump shot to be a good scorer down low, but has an affinity for sticking around the three-point line. The other option would be Dwight Howard. Despite his impressive numbers, Howard is pretty ineffective in the post because when he is double-teamed, he isn't very good at reading the defense and moving the ball without turning it over. Howard doesn't have a go-to move in the post and hasn't learned how to dominate with a drop-step and/or counter- move. If he can develop that for the postseason and become a player who can take over in the fourth quarter, then the Magic can play with anybody. Until he actually becomes the second coming of Shaquille O'Neal, Magic fans are going to have to be happy with the Hall of Presidents and the Indiana Jones ride to entertain them in the summer.