Originally written on The Football Fan Spot  |  Last updated 1/17/13
I’ve gone back and forth on this one. On one hand, some of the reasons I didn’t like the Patriots last week are still true. They’re still a terrible post-season spread team, going 2-7 ATS in their last 9 post-season games and 4-8 ATS all-time as favorites of more than 4 in the post-season. Last year, they were favored by a similar amount in a similar situation here against Baltimore and they failed to cover. These two teams always play close. They’ve met 6 times since 2007 and only one game was decided by more than 6 points and that was in the Ravens’ favor. The Ravens have endured 4 losses by exactly a field goal to the Patriots in that time period, while the Patriots lost by 1 earlier this year. Joe Flacco matches up perfectly with a New England secondary that can’t defend the deep pass as Flacco goes deep more than any quarterback in the NFL. The Patriots also may be overconfident after scoring so many points last week. Teams are 3-14 ATS since 2002 off a post-season game in whi...
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