The rollercoaster ride that has been the Denver Broncos starting quarterback situation still has not “officially” been addressed by the team, but reports have added much clarity to the situation in recent days. Dolphins fans chanting “We Want Orton” in practice are sure to be disappointed. Denver’s opportunity to deal Orton hasn’t yet necessarily expired, but the Broncos have all but officially committed this season to Orton. He’s taking all the snaps with the first team offense, and considering we’re about a month away from the start of the season, that says something. If John Fox had any intentions of giving Tebow the opportunity to compete for the starting role, he’d be taking snaps alongside Orton. But that isn’t the case.
Denver believes Orton gives the team the best chance to win now. And that means Tebow will be taking a backseat until Orton blows his opportunity or the season is lost, whichever comes first.
But does Orton give Denver the best opportunity to win this season?
John Fox is sure this is the case. John Elway might be sure too. But fans aren’t.
Here are the facts: Kyle Orton has an 11-17 record with the Broncos the past two seasons; last season it was 3-10. The biggest blame for his lack of success might appear to go to the Denver defense, but let’s examine a little more closely.
In five of Orton’s ten losses last season the Broncos defense allowed 27 points or fewer. In those games Orton averaged 293 passing yards, and in one he passed for 476 yards (week three against the Indianapolis Colts). But incredibly, despite that much yardage, Orton’s offense lost those battles and scored an average of just 14 points per game, losing each by about seven points.
What’s the problem here?
Orton was relatively efficient in those losses, throwing just three interceptions in five games, but he could not drive the Broncos into the endzone. That’s always been his Achiles. Orton, for lack of a better description, doesn’t lose games — but he doesn’t win them either.
Denver’s passing offense ranked 7th in the NFL (in terms of yards) last season. But when you look at other teams on that last, among the top 15, only the Redskins had a worse scoring offense. The statistic those two teams had in common: completion percentage, where both teams fell between 57 and 58 percentage points. In fact, they were the only teams on that list with sub-60 completion percentages.
Let’s tie that problem to a bigger one: many of those incompletions occurred on third down, stalling Broncos drives in or out of field goal range. Denver ranked 28th in third down efficiency last season — that’s why they lost so many games. In critical situations, Orton came up short and so did the Broncos offense.
And Orton was much more inconsistent last season than many analysts will admit. He threw either no touchdowns or just one in 7 of 13 games last season; when a team has essentially no running game, that’s a recipe for a loss. And it was: in five of Denver’s losses when the defense gave up 27 points or fewer, Orton couldn’t find the endzone, throwing just four touchdown passes. When that number is juxtaposed with his three interceptions in those games, it doesn’t matter that he was passing for nearly 300-yards per game — Denver wasn’t scoring touchdowns and Orton wasn’t efficient.
Of course, all this seems meaningless in a discussion about which quarterback gives the Broncos the best opportunity to win if Tebow would fare no better. And in fact, we have little to suggest Tebow would fare much better. In his three starts, the Broncos were 1-2, and the team’s third down efficiency was only good enough to match its opponents in those games. But the offense did score more points. In fact, under Tebow, Denver scored 23, 24, and 28 points; all above the team’s season average of 21.8.
Who knows if Tim Tebow gives Denver a better opportunity to win? Maybe no quarterback can win with an offense that so thoroughly struggled to run the ball last season. But I do know Kyle Orton has rarely been the catalyst to Denver’s success. He’s a game manager, not a game winner. That’s always been Tebow’s thing, and whether it translates to the NFL or not is still just speculation.
But if I’m Denver, I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt because you need to gamble if you want to win.
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- Final Review: 2010 Quarterbacks
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Original Story:
http://www.nflminute.com/2011/08/03/d...
